Americans are heading to the polls today for the Midterms.
But polling and general sentiment indicate it isn’t looking good for the Republicans.
Donald Trump in NH Doing the Trump Dance
President Donald Trump thanks the crowd after remarks at the Salute to America Celebration, Thursday, July 3, 2025, at the Iowa State Fairgrounds in Des Moines, Iowa. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok)
It is shocking to consider how far things have come for President Donald Trump and the Republicans, given how big their victory was in 2024.
Remember The Mooch
Indeed, in many deep Red states where Trump won by double digits, the races are either too close for comfort or trending Democrat.
President Trump’s former friend (and, briefly, White House Communications Director in the first term), Anthony Scaramucci, believes Trump is heading toward an historic defeat.
In fact, Scaramucci believes Trump is set to face a real challenge to his leadership from within the Republican Party after the GOP’s historic defeat.
Scaramucci was infamously Trump’s communications director for only 10 days in the first year of Trump’s first term and today runs SkyBridge Capital.
The election is a total referendum on Trump’s performance during the first two years of his second administration.
Per the “Mooch,” voters are dissatisfied with the administration’s handling of affordability, foreign policy, and government transparency.
This aligns with multiple polls showing that voters’ concerns fall in areas that run counter to Trump’s current policies and strengths.
An End to MAGA?
For example, the seminal issue of immigration, once Trump’s biggest pull factor for voters, remains a concern, but it is no longer in the top five.
It comes in at number six.
And there is some evidence to suggest that voters–notably Latinos–are tired of the constant displays of brutality by ICE agents when enforcing the administration’s immigration laws.
Scaramucci told CNBC that the inability of the Trump administration and the GOP to reduce the cost of living for most Americans, to end US military involvement in wars of choice overseas, and to release information about Jeffrey Epstein have all coalesced into a very negative trend that will harm Trump and the GOP.
According to the CNBC All-America Economic Survey, 65 percent of Americans polled disapproved of the president’s handling of the economy.
That’s a stunning change, considering inflation, the economy, and anti-corruption were among the three most crucial reasons Americans voted for Donald Trump and gave the GOP overwhelming majorities in 2024.
80 percent characterized economic conditions in the US as either poor or just fair.
That’s quite damning, in fact, for a Republican Party hoping to maintain its majorities.
Prediction markets also indicate a 78 percent probability that Democrats take the Senate.
These prediction markets, of course, do not determine election outcomes.
However, they matter because they aggregate major polls and people put real money on the outcomes, meaning there’s more skin in the game.
On the foreign policy front, the president has little chance of successfully negotiating an end to the war.
There isn’t any consensus between the three warring parties–Washington, Tel Aviv, and Tehran–and the president just yesterday launched another round of limited airstrikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island.
What’s more, Trump keeps alluding to some military action directed against Pickaxe Mountain, an unfinished suspected nuclear weapons site in Iran, which Tehran has already said that any strike on its nuclear sites will lead to massive retaliation.
If the Republicans lose both the Senate and House, and if they lose the Senate big, then the remaining Republicans will likely start separating themselves from Trump.
Indeed, this is where Scaramucci’s view comes in: a leadership crisis within the GOP will erupt as Republicans begin pointing fingers at each other.
With the shine of 2024 having fully worn off Trump, Republicans may also turn on him.
Succession Crisis
MAGA will remain an influential part of the GOP coalition, but it will be diminished.
Even if the GOP turns on Trump in Washington, that coalition will still give the president leverage over the party.
Further, with all the money flowing into Trump’s political action committee, the GOP will continue to have to show some degree of fealty to the president–even likely in 2028.
One can also expect that if the Democrats win the way many think they will, there will be an endless cavalcade of investigations into the Trump administration that will ensure the president becomes a lame duck.
The question, of course, remains whether the Democrats have an actual plan for governing or if they want to seek vengeance upon a particularly noxious group of partisans in the White House.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert is the Senior National Security Editor at 19FortyFive.com. He also manages The Weichert Brief on Substack. Weichert is the co-host for The Mario Nawfal Show on Twitter/X. He is the author of four bestselling national security books, most recently A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine (Encounter Books). His next book, Fortress Americas: A New Monroe Doctrine (Tucker Carlson Books), is due out December 8. Follow him via Twitter/X @WeTheBrandon.
