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Can the U.S. Air Force Build NGAD Fighters and B-21 Raider Bombers At the Same Time?

The B-21 Raider program is on track and continues flight testing at Northrop Grumman’s manufacturing facility on Edwards Air Force Base, California. The B-21 will have an open architecture to integrate new technologies and respond to future threats across the spectrum of operations. The B-21 Long Range Strike Family of Systems will greatly enhance mission effectiveness and Joint interoperability in advanced threat environments, strengthening U.S. deterrence and strategic advantage. (U.S. Air Force photo)
The B-21 Raider program is on track and continues flight testing at Northrop Grumman’s manufacturing facility on Edwards Air Force Base, California. The B-21 will have an open architecture to integrate new technologies and respond to future threats across the spectrum of operations. The B-21 Long Range Strike Family of Systems will greatly enhance mission effectiveness and Joint interoperability in advanced threat environments, strengthening U.S. deterrence and strategic advantage. (U.S. Air Force photo)

Each day the U.S. Air Force becomes more confident about the B-21 Raider program. The stealth bomber is so far coming in on-budget and on-time. I’m a defense analyst once trained by the RAND Corporation’s defense acquisition team, and I know how to spot waste, fraud, and abuse and when to sound the alarm when an arms program loses its way, especially if the price spikes and the schedule goes out the window.

But at this time, I see no glaring problems with the B-21 program. That’s probably why the Air Force is also breathing a sigh of relief. You see, there are two expensive programs going on now that need ample time, money, and resources: the B-21 and the Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter. And all is not well with NGAD, having been placed “on pause” because it was estimated to cost $300 million per airplane and there were some design issues that needed to be sorted out. The NGAD aims to replace the F-22.

What is going to happen to these key programs?

Looking Into the Future for the U.S. Air Force

The key question seems simple: Can the Air Force afford at least 100 B-21s and develop the NGAD at the same time?

So, could the B-21, since it is showing strong legs, forge a partnership with the NGAD for future air superiority against an ever-growing future threat environment?

“We have not taken that off the table,” Air Force Chief of Staff General David Allvin said at the Military Reporters and Editors conference last week when asked if a more ambitious approach could lead to a bigger role for the Northrop Grumman-made B-21.

What Is the NGAD?

The NGAD is a sixth-generation fighter that will feature a “Loyal Wingman” tethered drone or what the Air Force now calls a Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA). The CCA could fly ahead of the NGAD and conduct electronic warfare and jamming, collect targeting and reconnaissance data, and blow up targets on the ground. The Air Force wanted to award a contract for the NGAD at the end of this year or in early 2025, but the cost and design problems have extended that date.

The NGAD and B-21 on the Same Scorecard

Despite the difficulties now, the NGAD and B-21 could someday make a formidable team against adversaries like Russia and China. The NGAD could take out enemy air defenses and radar installations while the B-21 could deliver precision-ground strike to eliminate nuclear weapons infrastructure.

B-21 Raider. Image Credit U.S. Air Force.

B-21 Raider. Image Credit U.S. Air Force.

Will the Air Force Build More Than 100 B-21s?

Does that mean the Air Force would order more than 100 B-21s? General Allvin said he is sticking to that number now. The B-21 is in flight testing stage and the production line is getting ramped up with no price spikes or schedule slips at this time. “The usual price ballooning, we haven’t seen, and there’s reason to believe that may not occur,” Allvin said.

Don’t Be Overconfident

Allvin may need to tamp down that confidence because major airplane programs often have problems with cost and schedule. Congress is watching closely, knowing that a significant amount of dollars is on the line while China is moving forward with its own next-generation bomber and fighter.

So, the B-21 is advancing, and the NGAD is on pause. That’s one for two. The news could be much worse, and the Air Force is likely still confident that both airplanes will be in use by the 2030s. The NGAD is definitely way too expensive, so the Air Force could order more B-21s instead.

Who’s In Charge?

This decision calculus will confront a new president. Neither Donald Trump nor Vice President Kamala Harris ever gets into the weeds of defense acquisition during the campaign. However, one of them will have to appoint a new Air Force Secretary and Secretary of Defense. I don’t think Harris will keep the current SECDEF Lloyd Austin. Austin is a “go along-get along” type, but Harris may wish to bring on someone who is a civilian with no prior military experience and who has more charisma and vision.

NGAD Artist Photo.

NGAD Artist Photo. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

Trump, should he win, would never keep Austin and is likely to appoint someone hawkish like Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR) for secretary of defense. Cotton is a former Army officer so he may not have an opinion on future Air Force requirements at this time. But he could probably be convinced that since China is designing its own next-generation bomber and fighter that the United States should go in this direction too.

That would be good news for the B-21 and NGAD, but the winner of this presidential election will have a big say on the future of the new airplanes. Harris could have a more dovish secretary of defense and Trump could have a more hawkish one, plus there is the composition of Congress to consider. We’ll keep an eye on future political developments with the B-21 and NGAD and whether the Air Force can afford both next-generation airplanes.

About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.

Brent M. Eastwood
Written By

Dr. Brent M. Eastwood is the author of Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare. He is an Emerging Threats expert and former U.S. Army Infantry officer. You can follow him on Twitter @BMEastwood. He holds a Ph.D. in Political Science and Foreign Policy/ International Relations.

3 Comments

3 Comments

  1. pagar

    October 31, 2024 at 3:17 am

    Possible, but probably with one airplane (likely the NGAD) left crippled or half-crippled.

    THE US can have both aircraft but with the US Navy also going after new submarines and new amphibious vessels and USMC also wanting new weapins for the coming pacific war, the DoD will have to make a hard choice.

    The DoD needs to cut funds for the NGAD and just let the defense firms like Lockheed to decide what kind of fighter it has to become.

    Will the NGAD become a fighter always in need of innumerable ‘upgrades’ and ‘improvements’ after delivery to the USAF.

    Recall the navy fighter, the F7U cutlass. It was a design highly advanced for its time, but in the end, it became a failure due to inability to obtain correct engine upgrades.

    But, don’t worry, biden won’t be around when NGAD becomes the new cutlass.

  2. Jacksonian Libertarian

    November 1, 2024 at 4:44 pm

    The American war doctrine of first winning “Air Superiority” so that Bombing and Ground Support can be provided to the ground forces, has been negated by the ground forces’ powerful air defense systems.
    And while “Stealth” helps get aircraft closer to the frontlines it is still suicide to fly over the battlefield.
    Given this fact what is the NGAD going to bring to the fight?
    The same air-to-air missiles (AIM-120, AIM-9, etc.) that it would use are being used by ground-based air defense systems targeting the same enemy aircraft the NGAD would be.
    There is even a question about the utility of the B-21 Bomber, as it can’t fly over the battlefield either, and is reduced to trucking long-range air-launched missiles to the battlefield, a task that any cargo plane can do at a tiny fraction of the cost.

    The fact is “Drones own the battlefield” and America needs to recognize reality and buy millions of drones immediately. Most of America’s Industrial Age dumb weapons (Tanks, Armored vehicles, Artillery, Manned aircraft, Surface Warships, etc.) need to be mothballed or sold to allies. Attempts to keep obsolete platforms relevant are a case of the “Sunk Costs Fallacy”. And America should certainly stop buying new obsolete platforms.
    Research and development are fine and dandy, but there has to be a rationale for it in the war doctrine, and the NGAD has none.

  3. Pingback: NGAD: The Doomed Air Force 6th Generation Fighter? - NationalSecurityJournal

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