Key Points – A Chinese naval blockade and no-fly zone around Taiwan presents a devastating alternative to a full-scale amphibious invasion.
-Such a quarantine would sever Taiwan’s access to vital imports, including 97% of its energy, as well as food and medical supplies, potentially causing rapid economic collapse and social panic.
-This non-kinetic strategy creates a difficult dilemma for the United States and its allies, as a military intervention to break the blockade would be risky and faces domestic political opposition.
-A sustained blockade could cripple Taiwan and force its government to negotiate annexation on Beijing’s terms without a shot being fired.
J-35A Stealth Fighter from China. Image Credit: Chinese Military.
What If China Blockaded Taiwan?
The literature on Chinese warfare is replete with descriptions of how the country will annex Taiwan. The date usually bandied about by China watchers is 2027 for a successful amphibious attack on the island. This would be preceded by a shock and awe bombardment campaign aimed at bringing the city of Taipei to its knees.
But another Chinese gambit would provide less violence but still do significant damage to the Taiwanese government and its residents. I am referring to a blockade or quarantine by the Chinese navy and a no-fly zone executed by its air force.
Practice Makes Perfect
Indeed, the Chinese military loves conducting “Gray Zone” tactics, which are operations short of war but more serious than peace. This means the aggressors like to surround Taiwan with warships and coast guard vessels to rehearse a blockade and use fighter jets and bombers to fly close to Taiwan’s borders.
A blockade and quarantine would be devastating for Taiwan. I wrote about this contingency extensively in my last book, and it would be a highly effective form of non-kinetic warfare directed at punishing Taiwan until its people cry for mercy – which includes giving into Chinese annexation efforts.
Energy Supplies Would Be Cut Off
The blockade would halt all energy supplies entering Taiwan, potentially leading to power outages. Taiwan imports 97 percent of its energy. Taiwan may have only a few months’ worth of coal, natural gas, and petroleum. Food supplies would be interrupted. The Taiwanese also import machinery and computers from China, which would put a cramp on advanced manufacturing. Taiwan’s exports would be frozen, and this is an economy that depends on a trade surplus for economic development and job growth. Taiwan could easily slip into an economic depression if the blockade lasted for an extended period.
Medical supplies and pharmaceuticals would be reduced. The potential blackouts and electricity interruptions would affect patients at hospitals. Iron, steel, and chemical imports would also be affected.
MD-19 Drone from China Screenshot from Chinese Social Media.
No More U.S. Military Hardware or Ammunition Could Be Sent
Plus, there would be no way the Americans could send materiel and ammunition to the Taiwanese by sea. No additional US special operations forces who provide training and advice to Taiwan’s military could make it to the island.
Starving the Taiwanese
The United States’ agricultural products, such as beef, soybeans, corn, and wheat, would not reach the hungry Taiwanese. Store shelves would become barren.
Taiwan could not export computer chips, and it is a worldwide leader in microprocessor production. This could result in a crisis for the rest of the world as it tries to produce products that depend on Taiwan’s chips.
Taiwan would be forced to revert to a barter system, as goods would become increasingly scarce and difficult to find in stores. This could make the populace panic and take to the streets, begging the Taiwanese government to “do something” militarily or diplomatically.
How Would the Americans and Their Allies Respond?
Taiwan’s allies, like the United States, Japan, and South Korea, would have to decide whether to intervene. But could these countries break the blockade? The quarantine would be considered an act of war, but the Americans would likely be frozen from activity for several days as the White House figures out what to do.
Americans are divided on warfare. Trump ran a campaign on stopping endless wars and US intervention abroad. Most Americans are aware of the threat from China, but Taiwan is not at the forefront of many ordinary voters’ minds. It is a far-off land without a clear connection to the United States, a substantial number of Americans believe. There is also a strain of isolationism in the Republican party – people who would not support any type of US military adventures in East Asia. Japan has a self-defense force, but its military hardware is not meant for offensive purposes. South Korea has its hands full with North Korea.
Breaking Through the No-Fly Zone to Re-supply the Island
America could consider making a “Berlin Airlift” effort to re-supply Taiwan, but there is the problem of the no-fly zone that the Chinese are sure to execute. China has a substantial supply of land-based and carrier-based fighter jets, including some stealth models. Would the United States risk war to send basic supplies to Taiwan?
President Donald Trump would go into overdrive trying to negotiate with Xi Jinping to stop the blockade. This may not be possible. Xi could dally and delay. A month of quarantine would render the Taiwanese unable to function as a society. Taiwan’s president, Lai Ching-te, may just decide to throw in the towel and negotiate with Xi to allow formal annexation actions. This is just what the Chinese dictator wants.
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China would be concerned about the Americans halting the blockade or using an airlift, but that is a risk Xi is willing to take. The Chinese president will be judged by history over how he handles the Taiwan question. Annexation would make him one of the most powerful and heroic Chinese leaders since Mao Zedong.
Xi could be ready to instigate his blockade of China at any time. US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has spoken toughly about China, but Trump has not been as belligerent in his rhetoric toward Beijing. The president does have a temper, and he would likely take to social media and promise to unleash hell on the American military, but that would be as far as he would go.
China could also try a short-duration blockade – one that lasts a week or less – to send a message to the world that it means what it says. Taiwan would likely agree to curtail arms imports from the United States and refrain from making any new claims of independence from China.
A blockade would be terrible for Taiwan and an affront to regional stability and peace. China could very well execute it successfully. The United States and its allies would have to make a difficult decision on whether to intervene.
Domestic political pressures in the United States could hand-cuff Trump, and he would only be able to beg Xi to stop the quarantine. Congress would have various hawks and doves at each other’s throats, trying to figure out a response. Let’s hope the Americans proceed with caution, diplomacy succeeds, and the US Navy and Air Force do not need to resort to force to stop a potential blockade.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for US Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former US Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
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megiddo
June 9, 2025 at 10:01 pm
That as suggested could turn into a direct confrontation between china and USA especially if trump is no longer around and EU wants a piece of the action and more importantly, china itself has not done its homework.
A better bet would be to prosecute a long-running surreptitious cyber offensive against Taipei like what US (in particular NSA) is doing right now against china.
If ya lucky, ya could HIT THE JACKPOT ! Boom ! Down goes the island’s economy.
A confrontation between china and US could be disastrous because china still hasn’t deploy a spacefleet of spaceplanes, spacebombers and suborbital craft.
Thanks to xi jinping.
pagar
June 10, 2025 at 1:17 am
2027 is just a play (or underhand agitprop trick) on the pacific forces plan for the ‘Big One’ against china.
There’re actually no real problems between china and Taiwan except for the incessant efforts by US congressmen, DoD-linked analysts and pacific commanders to ukrainize the cross-strait relationship.
Naturally, those efforts could one day very well bear fruit, or in simpler language, turns a gentle push into a hard shove.
When that moment arrives, it’s time for china to immediately go for the jugular. Jugular or go for the kill.
That must be done fast. F-A-S-T.
To preclude any possibility of foreign military intervene. One way is to use neutron warheads to cleanse or sanitize hotspots.
That’s also like beheading the tiny chicken to scare those large big sharp-toothed monkeys.
bsl
June 10, 2025 at 10:50 am
The willingness to totally ignore what Beijing has been saying,
both to it’s own people, and to the world, for the entirety of
Xi’s rule, plus the actual military expansion the PRC has conducted,
plus it’s aggression against multiple neighbors in it’s occupation
of various pieces of the sea, is either a monumental example
of cognitive dissonance, or, perhaps more credibly, a demonstration
of propaganda machinery in the internet.
Charles Ketterman
June 10, 2025 at 11:12 am
The author fairly glosses and discounts over any notion of the US intervening, but I disagree with that assumption based on the rare bipartisanship the US Congress displays with respect to China. China is one of the only things the US has been united (and hawkish) on in recent years, and with US credibility and prestige on the line, I dont believe the US will essentially be scared into inaction. Japan and the Philippines have already indicated that theyd have to get involved if China tries to change the status quo by force. Between the US Congress and Taiwan’s regional neighbors statements, I think the author’s general assumptions surrounding a weak US response or non-response to an invasion or blockade are very suspect, and he did not devote much time in this article to explain why the US would sit it out. (Yes, Trump ran on mostly a peace platform, but he’s not all peace all the time, as evidenced by how he handled the Houthis and how he is threatening Iran with military action.)
Jim Miles
June 10, 2025 at 11:25 am
The author makes it sound all so easy for China. So why haven’t they done it already?
David Cain
June 10, 2025 at 1:37 pm
David P Goldman has already written on this topic in much greater detail. Of course China would not invade Taiwan amphibiously because naval and air blockade would be more effective, and they will do so when the time is ripe. Goldman, with his extensive experience and knowledge of China, has described the tactical reality especially the nearly 8,000 surface-to-sea missiles (many of which are hypersonic) and capable of targeting as far out as Guam. China would also employ its large fleet of modern submarines and fighter aircraft. Taiwan is less than 90 miles from China. If the US Navy were to attack the blockade it would end much as the 1904 Battle of the Strait of Tsushima. This would end the American Empire.
Tom aron
June 10, 2025 at 5:14 pm
I’ve had conversations with Taiwanese here in Canada. What strikes me is their fear of Taiwan and the USA actually preventing a Mainland military takeover. ‘Then what’… the collapse of the economy? Collapse of standard of living and future prospects? They have no desire to be ruled by Beijing but ‘winning’ could be even be much bigger loss.
And what does the USA do after it defeats China and ‘adopts’ Taiwan? Spend a trillion dollars a year on propping up its economy?
The lesser of bad choices solution may be an integration into Mainland nation on Taiwan’s terms. A special status under the Mainland flag. It will likely happen anyways so better to be proactive than being a victim of either winning or losing a military conflict.