China Can’t Invade Taiwan So Easily

Key Points – China’s potential military conquest of Taiwan, a core objective for President Xi Jinping, would involve immense challenges despite Beijing’s growing military might.

An invasion would likely start with a blockade and quarantine, followed by a complex amphibious assault.

However, Taiwan benefits from early warning (satellite detection of Chinese troop/ship movements), limited suitable landing beaches, difficult mountainous terrain favoring defenders, and its own missile/artillery capabilities.

While China could attempt a “shock and awe” bombardment of Taipei, the success of an invasion hinges on unpredictable factors: Taiwan’s will to resist, the effectiveness of its defenses, and crucially, whether the United States intervenes militarily.

Could China Conquer Taiwan?

The reunification of Taiwan is the most pressing geopolitical issue facing China. The Chinese government and its people are obsessed with Taiwan. President Xi Jinping thinks he will be judged by history on how he handles the future of the island nation.

His presidency is in the balance, and failure on the Taiwan issue is not an option. China believes that Taiwan is a renegade province that must be annexed and brought back into the fold. Xi prefers that unification be accomplished by political and diplomatic means, but he has not ruled out annexation by military force.

Blockade and Quarantine Could Come First

This could mean an initial blockade and quarantine to cut off food and energy supplies to Taiwan, followed by an amphibious attack to invade the island. Both moves are risky, especially if the United States decides to intervene. But China has the ships, airplanes, ballistic missiles, and ground forces to bring Taiwan to its knees, especially if the Americans stay out of the fight.

China’s ‘Grey Zone’ Activity Looks Like Action Is Imminent

China rehearses blockades and attacks on Taiwan through its “Grey Zone” tactics that are short of war but more intense than peace. Ships have surrounded the island before. Chinese fighter jets and bombers often fly close to the island to simulate an attack and intimidate the Taiwanese government.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine, the island dwellers are convinced it could happen to them, too. There is hope that the Taiwanese can fight China to a standstill, but they are also afraid that China could overwhelm all their defenses and defeat them. China has not fought a war since a 1979 scrap with Vietnam, but they take training seriously and have the major end items to make an attack a success. An amphibious landing would be one of the most complex operations in the modern era – much more complicated than the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

China Would Marshall All Resources for an Attack

Xi’s military would first have to move amphibious attack ships and other military hardware to the eastern edge of China, and the United States would be able to spot this mass of soldiers and end items from intelligence satellites. So Taiwan would have early warning. China’s amphibious ship count is not high, but they would use the coast guard and perhaps even civilian ships to haul soldiers and materiel across the Taiwan Strait.

But It Won’t Be Easy for China

There are not many beaches in Taiwan suitable for an amphibious operation, and the landing zone would be shallow, meaning that ships would have to move far away from the shore. These vessels would be targets for Taiwan’s missiles and artillery. Taiwan has also placed mines and conventional obstructions (iron spikes) at landing locations.

The Council on Foreign Relations describes the difficulty of an invasion. The terrain of Taiwan also favors the defenders. Mountain peaks are as high as 12,000 feet. Once China lands, the Taiwanese can launch a guerrilla campaign from the hills to prevent China from gaining total control. The east coast of Taiwan is not friendly to an amphibious attack due to rocky terrain, so China would have to focus on the west coast. China would have to cross several rivers, and there are few roads in the west. China’s tanks, self-propelled artillery, and armored personnel carriers could get bogged down.

Would Taipei Give Up and Its Government Capitulate?

However, China would bombard Taipei with artillery, ballistic missiles from shore, bombs from airplanes, and missiles from ships and submarines. Airplanes could destroy targets, and all of this firepower could convince the Taiwanese to give up after a “shock and awe” campaign. This would take several days, if not weeks, to bomb Taipei into submission. Of course, Russia tried to take Kyiv in a lightning strike, too, but was unsuccessful.

To answer and hold the city, Taiwan could also block highways, tunnels, and the city’s port to keep Taipei from being invaded by Chinese ground troops.

But this assumes that Taiwan has the will to fight and that the Americans do not attack the Chinese amphibious ships. Taiwan could give up immediately or mount a successful challenge that could prolong the war for weeks if not months. This is difficult to predict.

Taiwan is spending more money on defense and recruiting additional personnel for its army, but will that be enough?

China is not disguising how it rehearses for an attack. In 2024, after a major simulated invasion, the Americans and the Taiwanese took note.

Admiral Samuel Paparo, the commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, said that the notional exercise “looked like a rehearsal” for an invasion. “We watched it. We took note. We learned from it. And they helped us prepare for the future.”

Overall, this potential war between Taiwan and China will boil down to the will of the individual soldiers. If Taiwan can mirror the bravery, staying power, and ingenuity of Ukrainian personnel, a Chinese attack on the island will fail. However, they could also capitulate early, and the government could fall, even if Taiwanese defenders mount a guerrilla campaign; Taipei could ultimately give up. Meanwhile, China could execute the attack to perfection, but there would be a “fog of war” that would favor the defenders.

The United States is the wild card in this scenario. China assumed that the Americans would stay out of the battle. President Donald Trump has not said if he would try to stop the Chinese, but former President Joe Biden did claim he would command the U.S. military to prevent an attack.

China could try the quarantine and blockade first to stop all fuel supplies and food going into Taiwan and see how the Americans react. If the United States shows reticence, the invasion may ensue. Then, the Taiwanese would be expected to defend their country. It would be a bloody fight for weeks, or Taipei could wave the white flag early.

Meanwhile, China will prepare and conduct additional simulations using its Grey Zone tactics. If the invasion occurs in 2027, which is a widely discussed date among China watchers, the United States and Taiwan will have time to improve their defenses.

China will not give up when it comes to reunifying Taiwan, and Xi will have constant pressure to “do something” about the Taiwan question. All the Taiwanese and Americans can hope for is that Xi doesn’t resort to a military campaign.

About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.

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