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Military Hardware: Tanks, Bombers, Submarines and More

China’s New Aircraft Carriers Could Be ‘Sitting Ducks’ Against the U.S. Navy

China New Carrier Type 003 CCTV Screencap
China New Carrier Type 003 CCTV Screencap Photo.

Key Points and Summary – China’s carrier program just hit fast-forward. With Fujian now operating in the South China Sea and satellite imagery suggesting a nuclear, EMALS-equipped Type 004 that could host 100+ aircraft, Beijing is racing toward a four-carrier fleet.

The big questions: survivability and integration.

Sitting Duck? If Type 004 mirrors Ford-class attributes, layered defenses—EW, interceptors, and eventually lasers—plus real-time multi-domain ISR will be essential to counter long-range anti-ship missiles.

Bottom Line: China’s push signals it doesn’t see big-deck carriers as obsolete and plans to project power well beyond the first island chain. Experience and sustainment still favor the U.S., but the regional calculus is shifting fast.

China’s Aircraft Carrier Fleet Has a Lot of Questions to Answer

China’s carrier fleet is experiencing what could be called “explosive” growth and progress, as its 3rd carrier, the Fujian, is now operational and in the South China Sea, and the PLA Navy is also surging forward with a new, first-of-its-kind “supercarrier.

In the mere flash of an instant, it appears the People’s Liberation Army-Navy will soon be a four-carrier force, something that seemed like a distant thought or wish just 10 years ago.

Not only has the PLAN now had three aircraft carriers at sea at one time, but China also appears to be building a massive, “supercarrier” capable of projecting more power than the US Navy’s USS Ford.

Citing commercially available satellite photos, numerous reports now say China appears to be advancing with a vast Type 004 aircraft carrier, which may be the largest the world has ever seen.

Available specs indicate that the USS Ford can travel with up to 90 aircraft, yet China’s 004 is said to be capable of carrying at least 100.

Very little is known about the carrier apart from what can be observed in satellite images seen at the Xianglujiao drydock in Dalian, a primary shipbuilding site used to build China’s first two carriers, the Liaoning and Shandong.

China’s 3rd carrier, the Fujian, is now operational, and the PLAN has on several occasions conducted dual-carrier war preparation drills.

There is a lot of public speculation and analysis about the look and configuration of the large new carrier, yet few specifics have been confirmed.

There does appear to be a consensus that the ship will be China’s first nuclear-powered carrier and operate with electromagnetic catapults.

The existence of these technologies points to the first and most self-evident observation regarding the carrier: the simple issue of being a USS Ford copycat.

The PRC has a well-known and documented history of copying or stealing US technologies, and it was therefore not surprising that China’s 3rd carrier features a large, flat-deck and electromagnetic catapult similar to the USS Ford.

USS Gerald R. Ford Training

USS Gerald R. Ford Training. Image Credit: U.S. Navy.

USS Gerald R. Ford Aircraft Carrier Training

USS Gerald R. Ford Aircraft Carrier Training. Image Credit: U.S. Navy.

The PLAN’s Type 004 seems quite similar in configuration, yet larger.

China’s View on Aircraft Carriers

Another significant element of this is that the PLA does not believe big-deck carriers will become obsolete or simply too vulnerable in an age when modern threats, such as long-range anti-ship missiles, can target large platforms thousands of miles offshore.

The fact that China’s ambition to become a dominant global power capable of projecting and maintaining influence and military prowess far beyond the Pacific is well known.

And yet China’s apparent belief that there is still a significant and highly valued place for carriers in a modern threat environment seems quite substantial.

China’s 3rd Aircraft Carrier. Fujian Class.
byu/maomaodong inShips

The emergence of this Chinese ship offers a window into PRC thinking on the value and continued utility of carriers, something that has occupied a central place in Pentagon and Navy debates about the future of maritime warfare.

Chinese Ship Defenses? The Sitting Duck Problem

Does China plan to operate the carrier in locations where there are few to no threats from long-range, shore-fired precision anti-ship missiles?

A likely scenario is that China is advancing in ship-defense technologies, as the US Navy is.

Can China protect carriers with lasers? EW? or Interceptor missiles from surrounding warships?

Does China have multi-domain ISR that connects air, surface, land, and space targeting technologies in real time, so that incoming anti-ship missiles can be detected and destroyed early in their trajectories?

China Aircraft Carrier

China Aircraft Carrier. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

China is likely also progressing quickly with the development of layered ship defenses, as there appears to be confidence that a ship of that size could provide unique and extremely valuable advantages in war.

This view does seem to parallel the US Navy to some extent, because although the US is likely to build more unmanned ships and smaller, faster, less vulnerable aircraft-carrying platforms, there does appear to be an apparent belief among US decision makers that carriers not only provide unprecedented value in warfare … but are also here to stay for decades into the future.

About the Author: Kris Osborn, Warrior Maven

Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a highly qualified expert in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.

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Kris Osborn
Written By

Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven - Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University

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