Trump Administration Believes Iran Could Collapse From Within – The Trump administration reportedly expects that the economic pressure inflicted on Iran could be sufficient to cause the collapse of the Islamic regime, even as President Donald Trump explores the possibility of declaring the war over and withdrawing some U.S. military presence from the region.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent argued this week that mounting economic pressure could ultimately cause Iran’s security establishment to fracture or even trigger a popular uprising. He made the comments during a press conference on Tuesday, September 1, following the meeting of G20 finance ministers in North Carolina. Bessent argued that Iran had entered what he called a “death spiral” and said that the Islamic Republic was reaching a point where it had only a handful of options remaining.
President Donald J. Trump delivers remarks on the economy at Rockland Community College in Suffern, New York on Friday, May 22, 2026.(Official White House Photo by Joyce N. Boghosian)
President Donald J. Trump speaks with members of the media alongside outgoing White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, before boarding Air Force One at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, Friday, August 21, 2026, en route to South Carolina. (Official White House Photo by Molly Riley)
“Either the IRGC are going to turn on each other, the people are going to turn on them, or they are going to come to the table and want to do a deal that they can stick with,” Bessent said.
The Treasury secretary specifically pointed to the collapse of the Iranian rial, runaway inflation, and news of queues at gas stations as reasons Iran is destined for economic collapse. He also said that the economic pressure threatens the stability of the government itself, saying that the country is in the “acceleration phase” of its economic decline. He also argued that Iranian attacks against American forces were just part of the response to that pressure.
His comments also followed a Truth Social post by President Trump on Wednesday, in which he appeared to call on the Iranian people to take the opportunity to rise up against the regime.
“I like our position now much better, with almost total control of the Hormuz Strait, and their economy totally collapsing,” Trump wrote. “They are just playing out the inevitable.”
“When are the Iranian people going to rise up and fight?” he continued.
Bessent Believes Regime Collapse Could Happen
In another interview on Tuesday, Bessent went further, stating that Washington is at least considering the possibility that the pressure campaign ends with something more than a nuclear agreement with Iran.
Bessent said that the White House is “telling friends and foes that this is the end of the regime,” adding that the goal is not necessarily to “collapse the regime.”
“It could happen,” he also said, adding that President Trump is “determined that they will not survive in situ, as they are now.”
“I can tell you that teams from Treasury, from State, from DOW, they have spread out across the world, and we are telling friends and foes that this is the end of the regime, we are going to sever all of their economic ties with the outside world,” he continued.
Trump Considers Ending the War
The Trump administration is hopeful that the Iranian regime will collapse under economic pressure for several reasons, but chief among them is perhaps the fact that President Trump is reportedly looking to declare the war over as soon as he possibly can.
The president has held closed-door discussions with senior advisers in recent days about simply declaring the war over, according to The Wall Street Journal. The outlet cites people familiar with the discussions in a report published Wednesday, and one possibility being considered is Washington reducing its military involvement in the region while continuing the blockade and sanctions intended to deprive Tehran of oil revenue and access to the international financial system.
On Wednesday, Trump also signaled that another prolonged period of fighting is likely off the cards. When asked how long the U.S. campaign would continue, Trump said it would not be “too long.”
“I don’t think they can go much longer,” he also said.
The comments did, however, follow a return to exchanges of fire this week, with U.S. forces launching extensive strikes against Iranian military targets on Tuesday, September 1. The latest round of strikes hit radar installations and air defenses that Iran had been steadily rebuilding over the last month of relative calm in the region. Iran then responded early Wednesday with missile and drone attacks targeting American facilities in Jordan, Kuwait, and Iraq.
Iran’s President Admits the Pressure Is Working
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian appears to share Washington’s view that the economic pressure campaign could fracture the government and bring down the regime, publicly acknowledging in recent days that American pressure is causing serious economic problems.
Pezeshkian said during a televised interview with state media late last week that Iran is struggling, with imports and exports dropping significantly. He admitted that iran has “many problems” and said that the only reason the regime hasn’t fallen already is a sense of national “unity.”
The U.S. Treasury is now preparing to test just how much more pressure Tehran can withstand, with Bessent saying that Washington expects to announce another action against a foreign bank this week, and another next week.
About the Author: Jack Buckby
Jack Buckby is a British researcher and analyst specializing in defense and national security, based in New York. His work focuses on military capability, procurement, and strategic competition, producing and editing analysis for policy and defense audiences. He brings extensive editorial experience, with a career output spanning over 1,000 articles at National Security Journal, and has previously authored books and papers on extremism and deradicalization.
