Trump May Have Already Lost His Chance to Save the Republicans – President Donald Trump is facing mounting political pressure and a possible impending crisis as we head into the November 3 midterm elections, with the latest polling suggesting that even a sudden end to the war in Iran, or even a dramatic reduction in gasoline prices, may not be enough to save Republicans from losing control of Congress.
If Trump and the GOP lose Congress, Trump would lose most of his political power.
President Donald J. Trump speaks with members of the media alongside outgoing White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, before boarding Air Force One at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, Friday, August 21, 2026, en route to South Carolina. (Official White House Photo by Molly Riley)
President Donald J. Trump delivers remarks at the David S. Mack Center for Training and Intelligence in Garden City, New York, Friday, August 14, 2026. (Official White House Photo by Molly Riley)
The findings come as the president steps up his efforts to campaign for his party and its candidates, even appearing at rallies in traditionally Republican states to mobilize voters who are growing frustrated with the administration’s handling of the economy and the ongoing Iran War.
And the latest numbers suggest that even if the president fixed these problems quickly, the Republican voters he’s counting on to turn out still may not. And the Democrats could still be on track for a massive win.
A new POLITICO/PF Global survey published on Saturday, October 10, found that just 28% of Americans would be more likely to vote for Republican candidates if Trump were to bring the war in Iran to an end before election day.
Only 29% said a $ 1-per-gallon reduction in gasoline prices would be enough to make them support the Republicans.
Separate polling shows a similar story, with Pew Research and Reuters/Ipsos studies showing how much support the president has lost, including among voters who backed him in the 2024 election.
New Poll Shows Trump Has Few Options Left
The POLITICO survey, conducted by PF Global between October 3 and October 5, asked 2,001 American adults about a series of potential major developments before election day and whether those events could influence their voting intentions. The findings suggest that even the biggest political victories for the White House would do little to change the Republican Party’s fortunes, with only 27% of respondents saying they believed President Trump could end the war before November 3. The same percentage said they believed the president could substantially reduce grocery prices, while just over one-quarter believed he could cut gasoline prices by $1 per gallon.
And even among Americans who supported the president in 2024, confidence in his ability to deliver major improvements to the national economy was limited. Just 43% said that they believed he could achieve the proposed reduction in gasoline prices.
The survey also showed that Democratic voters were especially unlikely to change their voting intentions if President Trump lowered gas prices and ended the war, and many undecided voters remained uncertain about whether any new political achievements, no matter how big, would influence their decisions.
The findings also appear consistent with other recent surveys.
On October 8, a Pew Research Center report found that the president’s approval rating had fallen to just 30% — the lowest level recorded during the second Trump administration. The survey also found that 44% of registered voters viewed their upcoming midterm vote as a vote against the president, compared with only 19% who said it would be a vote in his favor.
Americans Blame Trump – for Most Major Problems
The administration’s problem isn’t that the average American voter is unhappy with the state of the economy, but that they blame President Trump for the problems and for making their personal finances worse.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll published on Friday, October 9, found that 78% of Americans believe the president’s policies have contributed to the increased cost of living.
The survey, which spoke to 4,506 adults, showed that 57% of Republicans believe that prices are rising faster than their income.
That’s a big challenge for a president who campaigned in 2024 on bringing inflation under control and lowering the cost of essential goods.
He also campaigned on a promise not to start another long-lasting war in the Middle East.
The war in Iran has made Trump’s promises substantially harder to deliver overall, as disruptions to Persian Gulf oil supplies have increased energy costs and, therefore, transportation and agricultural production costs. Those prices are now being passed on to the average American voter. And those voters appear to be paying attention.
Pew Research Center’s October 8 survey found that 84% of registered voters consider the economy a very important factor in their midterm vote, including 88% of Democratic supporters and 82% of Republican supporters.
Republicans Are Fighting
The Republicans are feeling the consequences of the president’s actions, and many candidates who should ordinarily win comfortably are struggling to maintain their edge in the polls.
On Tuesday, October 13, the president is traveling to Alaska to campaign for Republican Senator Dan Sullivan, who is facing a competitive challenge from former Democratic Representative Mary Peltola. The visit follows Vice President JD Vance’s trip to the state to rally the base and support the campaign.
About the Author: Jack Buckby
Jack Buckby is a British researcher and analyst specializing in defense and national security, based in New York. His work focuses on military capability, procurement, and strategic competition, and he produces and edits analysis for policy and defense audiences. He brings extensive editorial experience, with a career output spanning over 1,000 articles at National Security Journal, and has previously authored books and papers on extremism and deradicalization.
