Donald Trump has often made threats on social media, but he did something a bit different on Thursday: He announced that he will not be attacking Iran before the midterm elections.
In a Truth Social post on Thursday, the president declared that “we will not be attacking Iran at any time before the Midterm Elections,” and that “productive discussions” were taking place with Iran.
U.S. Air Force Staff Sgt. Jason Lewey from the 8th Aircraft Maintenance Squadron marshals an F-16 Fighting Falcon from the 35th Fighter Squadron at Kunsan Air Base, South Korea, after returning from a training mission during RED FLAG-Alaska 09-2 at Eielson Air Force Base, Alaska, on April 20, 2009. RED FLAG-Alaska provides training for deployed maintenance and support personnel in sustainment of a large-force deployed air operation.
(DoD photo by Senior Airman Jonathan Snyder, U.S. Air Force. (Released))
A formation of 4th generation fighter jets from the 40th Flight Test Squadron flies near Eglin Air Force Base, Fla, Jan. 31, 2022. The 40th FLTS executes developmental flight tests for fourth generation fighter aircraft to include the A-10, F-15 and F-16. (U.S. Air Force photo by Tech. Sgt. John Raven)
The post came just hours after multiple media reports that Trump was considering new military strikes in the near future, and that they could even come before the vote in early November.
Making that promise might box Trump in, should Iran strike a U.S. ship in the next three weeks or perform some other action.
But an attack before the election would both put an unpopular war back in the headlines and risk destabilizing energy supplies at a time when gas-price concerns are high.
Al Jazeera cited Pew Research Center data, showing that 65 percent of Americans disapprove of how Trump has handled the Iran War. Pew also found an enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans for midterm voting.
So, what will happen next?
A Post-Election Resumption?
After several weeks of the conflict being in limbo, there are many indications that, barring a ceasefire agreement, the U.S. will once again launch a military campaign once the midterm elections are over.
According to Al Jazeera, which cited several other media outlets, the Pentagon and CENTCOM are drawing up plans for potential attacks.
The report added that Trump has been “accused of misdirection” before when it comes to whether or not he plans to attack Iran, including the initial strike in February, which came while the U.S. and Iran were still in active talks.
Trump, last month, said in his U.N. General Assembly speech that he might “annihilate” Iran, and declared in his Republican midterm convention speech that the war “is going to end immediately after the elections.” A new carrier group was also recently deployed to the region, bringing U.S. personnel to 20,000.
Are Talks Really “Productive”?
Trump had claimed in a Truth Social post that “productive discussions” were taking place, although not much has been reported of late about the actual status of the talks. At a campaign rally in Texas this week, Trump said envoy Steve Witkoff is “working on the Iran deal and doing very well,” in talks described as “indirect.”
He also argued that the Iranians were pushing for a deal, not the other way around.
“I think the deal isn’t really something that I want to do, Trump said at the San Antonio rally, “but they’re willing to offer us anything to stop.”
Qatari Foreign Ministry official Ibrahim Al-Hashmi, who has been conducting the indirect talks, said earlier this week that the talks were still ongoing. Still, little detail was shared about their status.
Qatar’s Emir Sheik Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani and Iran’s Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni met in Doha this week, Arab News reported.
Why Gas Prices Are High
As of Friday afternoon, Brent Crude was trading at just over $104.
A major impetus for the U.S. to resolve the conflict is reopening the Strait of Hormuz, restoring oil flow, and bringing gas prices back down.
However, CNN reported that despite the U.S. and its allies recently succeeding in getting oil through the Strait, gasoline and diesel prices remain high.
AAA reported that gas prices, averaging $4.36 a gallon, are at their highest for this time of year, with diesel also near the all-time high it set last month.
Why is this? It’s because it remains very expensive to move oil out of the Middle East.
This includes skyrocketing insurance rates and the high cost of getting soldiers to agree to travel such dangerous routes.
And that’s because oil supplies are affected by three major wars at once: The one in Iran, the one between Russia and Ukraine, and the one between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia.
“You have to end all three wars – or even two out of three wouldn’t be bad,” Tom Kloza, chief energy adviser at Gulf Oil, told CNN.
About the Author: Stephen Silver
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist, and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review, and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has written thousands of articles on politics, national security, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
