In September, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz rose sharply after a lull in the U.S.-Iran war.
For a brief period, oil flows through the Strait approached, and at times exceeded, prewar levels, much to Iran’s displeasure.
U.S. Navy Aviation Boatswain’s Mate Aircraft Handling 2nd Class Kyle Darmanin, from Mooresville, North Carolina, assigned to air department’s flight deck crash and salvage division, signals an F/A-18E Super Hornet, attached to Strike Fighter Squadron (VFA) 27, on the flight deck of Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS George Washington (CVN 73) while underway in the Timor Sea in support of Talisman Sabre 2025, July 14, 2025. Talisman Sabre is the largest bilateral military exercise between Australia and the United States advancing a free and open Indo-Pacific by strengthening relationships and interoperability among key allies and partners, while enhancing our collective capabilities to respond to a wide array of potential security concerns. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Tyler Crowley)
A Sailor directs an F/A-18E Super Hornet from the “Kestrels” of Strike Fighter Squadron (VFA) 137 on the flight deck of the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz (CVN 68) in the South China Sea, May 12, 2025. Nimitz is underway in the U.S. 7th Fleet area of operations on a scheduled deployment, demonstrating the U.S. Navy’s unwavering commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific. (U.S. Navy Photo by Mass Communication Specialist Seaman Apprentice Franklyn M. Guage)
Now, the Islamic Republic is attempting to reassert its control over the strategic waterway and has ramped up its attacks against civilian tankers in the region.
Since September 30th, Iran has launched 14 separate attacks on civilian ships in the Strait and turned away several more. These attacks threaten to temper the Gulf states’ rebound in oil exports.
The U.S. has yet to respond militarily to the increased Iranian activity as President Trump waits for the midterm elections to pass.
Reasserting Control Over Hormuz
On Wednesday, October 7, a tanker was struck while sailing off Qatar’s northern coast.
The large vessel was in the Gulf, about 300 miles from the Strait of Hormuz, when multiple projectiles struck it. The attack is the most recent in a series of incidents in and around the Strait.
The UK Maritime Trade Operation (UKMTO) Center has verified 14 attacks on civilian tankers since September 30.
Most of these attacks occurred within the Strait itself, but the October 7 attack stands out because it was reported off the coast of Qatar.
The Islamic Republic contested claims that oil through the Strait was reaching prewar levels and claims that Iran was losing control over Hormuz.
The recent attacks likely aim to reassert its authority and curb any hopes of returning to pre-war norms.
According to India’s Foreign Ministry, 12 crew members were wounded during one of Iran’s attacks on a Panama-flagged tanker.
According to the Joint Maritime Information Center, Iran has also increased its non-violent harassment against oil tankers, conducting reconnaissance flights and low overpasses over civilian ships to deter any unwarranted activity in the Strait. “These actions continue to demonstrate Iran’s intent to assert presence along key transit lanes and maintain pressure on transiting vessels,” the agency said on Sunday.
On Wednesday, Tehran announced that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed, and that it would clamp down on “illegal” routes not approved by the IRGC.
Keeping the Oil Flowing
In September, oil exports from the Gulf states increased significantly. According to Kpler, exports averaged 18.3 million barrels per day (BPD) late last month, up from 18 million BPD before the war.
According to the maritime intelligence agency, roughly 40% of these exports bypassed the Strait.
Since the war began, the Gulf states have scrambled to find an alternative route to bypass the strait and protect their oil revenues.
The East-West Pipeline in Saudi Arabia has been a major factor in keeping oil flows stable, running from the oil fields in the East to the Red Sea port of Yanbu.
Ships in the Arabian Gulf also rely on ship-to-ship transfers to move oil through the Strait.
Smaller shuttle boats often travel at night with their transponders off to avoid detection, then transport their oil to a tanker waiting beyond the Strait.
While these new systems and methods have kept oil flowing, the system is fragile and relies on new routes remaining secure. “The flow will be sustainable unless attacks on ships and shipping lanes or on the pipeline resume.” Tamas Varga, an Analyst at PVM Oil Associates, told Al Jazeera.
Likewise, the shuttle-to-shuttle system currently works but requires more ships, raising freight and shipping costs.
In September, the East-West Pipeline temporarily halted operations for a few days following a drone attack by the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen.
Additionally, the Houthis have launched repeated attacks against Saudi oil infrastructure.
Between Houthi attacks from Yemen and increased Iranian activity in Hormuz, the increased oil exports from the Gulf states remain fragile.
Managing the Energy Crisis
The U.S. has yet to respond to Iran’s increased activity in the Strait.
With midterms approaching in November, Trump currently has his hands tied after he stated that he would not resume attacks against Iran until after the elections. “We are having productive discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran,” Trump wrote on social media. “I want to make it clear to everybody that, while Iran is in very bad condition… we will not be attacking Iran at any time before the Midterm Elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd.” The announcement came after reports suggested that Trump might launch retaliatory attacks in the coming weeks.
The downside is that Iran has been given an unofficial green light to continue attacks against civilian tankers without fear of U.S. retaliation.
Unfortunately, the energy market is unlikely to return to pre-war norms in the short term.
Even as traffic through the Strait increased in September, oil prices stayed above $100 per barrel, occasionally dipping to the $98-$99 range.
Even if Iran and Yemen halted their attacks, it will likely take months, if not years, to return to pre-war norms. After attacks against oil infrastructure and persistent risks, shipping insurance rates are at an all-time high.
At the same time, attacks on some of the world’s largest oil refineries have created a global shortage of refining capacity.
Although the U.S. has done what it can to manage the energy crisis, shortages and high gas prices will likely remain for a while after the war ends.
About the Author: Isaac Seitz
Isaac Seitz, a Defense Columnist, graduated from Patrick Henry College’s Strategic Intelligence and National Security program. He has also studied Russian at Middlebury Language Schools and has worked as an Intelligence Analyst in the private sector.
