Six months ago, the United States and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury.
Missiles rained down across Iran as U.S.-Israeli missiles relentlessly battered the country.
F-16I Fighter from Israel. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
F-16I Sufa. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Within hours, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, was dead. Reports from a state where information is tightly controlled came through slowly, but it seemed for all the world that the operation had wiped out Iran’s leadership.
Yet, six months on, the two sides remain at war. And Iran shows no signs of giving up any time soon.
Destruction, and Nothing Else More
Secretary of War Pete Hegseth’s reasoning for the bombardment was unambiguous. “The mission of Operation Epic Fury is laser-focused: Destroy Iranian offensive missiles, destroy Iranian missile production, destroy their navy and other security infrastructure – and they will never have nuclear weapons,” he said shortly after the bombardment began.
Having wiped out the Supreme Leader along with key figures in the Iranian leadership, the U.S. and Israel soon turned attention to military infrastructure.
Iranian missile attacks fell by 90% in the first week of the conflict as the majority of missile launchers and weapons production sites were destroyed.
On purely militaristic terms, Iran has overwhelmingly lost a conflict it was never likely to win.
What Constitutes Success?
The objectives of Operation Epic Fury were quickly apparent – and some had already been discussed well before the conflict began. President Donald Trump has long insisted that Iran must never have a nuclear weapon, and Tehran’s nuclear program has been severely set back.
However, much of that damage was inflicted the previous year, and subsequent strikes have only hindered any progress Iran has made rather than completely rule out the prospect of a nuclear-capable Iranian regime.
There’s also the issue of regime change. Again, this was something that had been brewing a few months before fighting began, with Trump stating “help [was] on the way” to the hundreds of thousands of protesters filling Iranian streets over the New Year period.
For sure, Khamenei is dead, and his successor hasn’t been seen in months, but the Iranian leadership – one which is based on the principle of succession – has simply changed hands, rather than change direction.
The hope of an Iranian uprising, with a new leadership taking charge of the country, simply never came to fruition.
Never-Ending Warfare
Trump said shortly after Operation Epic Fury began that he predicted the war would go on for “four to five weeks”. In a way, it did, as a fragile ceasefire ended the repeated bombardment.
However, whether that can be considered a conclusion is largely debatable, and Trump’s position has shifted, with the President declaring that he was “not in a hurry” to resume talks with Tehran on Wednesday, 26th August.
The conflict has shifted from militaristic to economic over the summer months – something which is seemingly favoring Iran as much as the U.S. Economic sanctions have done little to deter Tehran, which maintains a stronghold over the Strait of Hormuz.
No Winner in Sight
In a traditional war, Iran would be comparable to a boxer desperately fighting to make it to the final bell.
It has been absolutely battered by the conflict, and a return to pre-war status is likely to take decades, never mind years.
But this is not a traditional war. Iran is continuing to fight on, threatening shipping lanes and making an unpopular war increasingly difficult to justify for the United States – both at home and around the world.
The authoritarian regime remains in power, even if different leaders sit in the same seats.
Tehran refuses to surrender, even if its ability to fight fire with fire has been virtually destroyed.
And the Strait of Hormuz, something Iran had left alone for much of its modern existence, remains closed.
Arguably, the only way the U.S. and Israel can achieve a complete victory is through boots on the ground.
That’s problematic for multiple reasons, including the risk to American lives, which many would see as unnecessary.
Iran is an enormous country, and the terrain makes any major invasion from the Persian Gulf difficult.
In any event, Tehran’s resilience, as demonstrated over the past six months, means it’s unlikely to capitulate.
Six months on, it would not be fair to say the U.S. is losing the war. That said, it’s equally hard to argue it’s winning it.
About the Author: Shay Bottomley
Shay Bottomley is a British journalist. He has written for the Western Standard, Business Insider, Maidenhead Advertiser, Slough Express, Windsor Express, Berkshire Live and Southend Echo.
