Throughout the first nearly two years of Donald Trump’s second term, the stock market has risen more than 30 percent, while unemployment has remained low. However, because inflation remains stubbornly high, voters don’t see the economy as strong, and it could cost the president’s party the midterm elections.
“It’s still the economy, stupid,” Eduardo Porter wrote in a Friday analysis for The Guardian, referencing Bill Clinton’s adviser, James Carville, and his famous slogan from the 1992 presidential election.
President Donald J. Trump greets Ambassadors David Perdue and Xie Feng, Executive Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Ma Zhaoxu and Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi at Beijing Capital International Airport, China on Friday, May 15, 2025, before boarding Air Force One en route Washington, D.C. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok)
President Donald J. Trump delivers remarks on the economy at Rockland Community College in Suffern, New York on Friday, May 22, 2026.(Official White House Photo by Joyce N. Boghosian)
Porter lays out a dynamic in which Trump has repeatedly tried to deflect, change the subject, and claim things are better than they are, while voters have continued not to buy it, at least according to most polling data. And among those losing faith are Republican voters.
Throughout the fall campaign trail, Trump has tried to center himself in the Republicans’ election push while also making a pie-in-the-sky promise of $5,000 checks for all Americans if his party keeps control of both houses of Congress.
A Change in Attitude
As the Guardian noted, in September 2024, 65 percent of Republican voters saw the economy, then under Joe Biden, getting worse.
Six months later, with Trump in office and having announced the “Liberation Day” tariffs, 33 percent of Republicans saw the economy getting worse, even though the underlying economic data had changed little during those months.
This is cited as an example of the sort of partisan blinders that Trump clearly hopes can help him bring out his base in next month’s election. However, data cited in the piece from the Guardian’s own polling suggests this likely won’t work. That’s because now, 38 percent of Republicans see the economy getting worse, even after almost two years of the president of their party.
“The economy is looking pretty bad even for their most loyal acolytes,” Porter writes of the polling. ‘Too bad to convince them otherwise.’
The Guardian noted that the polling was conducted even before the release of the October inflation figure, which showed year-over-year inflation had climbed to 3.7 percent.
The commentary notes that while much research shows partisan polarization powerfully shapes impressions of the economy, current conditions have begun to test that assumption.
Porter writes that American voters’ dissatisfaction with how Trump has handled the economy is “too well established,” from the initial tariff announcement to what he calls “countless destructive decisions over the last 21 months.” It could cost the president’s party its majorities in both houses of Congress.
A Rural Decline
One part of Trump’s base, rural Americans, has been hurt by inflation and specific actions the president took during his second term.
When asked whether the economy is getting worse, Harris/Guardian polling found that 64 percent of rural Americans said it was, compared with 52 percent of those who live in cities. Rural Americans, the Guardian said in its analysis, have been “hammered by the rising price of diesel and fertilizer,” while ICE’s immigration raids have hurt the labor force in rural parts of the country. Trump’s lowering of tariffs on imported meat has also angered some in rural America.
Also, white Americans at large, a demographic Trump won in 2024, are seeing bad economic signs. Of that cohort, 61 percent say the economy is getting worse, up from 48 percent two years ago, in the waning days of the Biden presidency.
More Bad Polls
Meanwhile, The Hill reported this week on more bad polling for the president, specifically on the economy.
Citing a recent Financial Times/Focaldata poll, only 28 percent of respondents approve of the president’s handling of jobs and the economy, compared to a 34 percent overall approval rating.
On inflation specifically, the survey found that only 2 in 10 respondents say Trump is handling it well, making housing Trump’s worst category.
The Hill also cited data from Decision Desk HQ, which sees the Democrats as having a 54 percent chance of capturing majorities in both houses of Congress in November.
About the Author: Stephen Silver
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist, and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review, and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has written thousands of articles on politics, national security, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
