President Donald Trump was elected to a second term in 2024 with an unusual coalition.
Since then, with Trump’s approval rating at or near an all-time low, that coalition has begun to fray — and Iran is a big reason why.
President Donald Trump signs an Executive Order on the Administration’s tariff plans at a “Make America Wealthy Again” event, Wednesday, April 2, 2025, in the White House Rose Garden. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok)
Donald Trump. White House Flickr.
What We Know
As noted by Newsweek, Trump’s approval rating has now dropped below zero on every issue measured by its weekly tracking poll, the Strength in Numbers/Verisight poll.
“Signs of softening amid Trump’s own coalition could reshape the political terrain for down-ballot candidates in November,” Newsweek wrote in its write-up of the poll.
Meanwhile, another poll, the Reuters/Ipsos poll, found that Trump has not only reached a low, but that the Iran War is less popular than ever.
“The four-day poll showed just 31% of Americans support U.S. military action against Iran, down from 37% in a March Reuters/Ipsos poll and 34% earlier this month. The decline was driven by fewer self-identified Republicans backing the conflict. Some 69% of Republican respondents support the war, compared with 77% in March,” Reuters said of the poll.
In addition, 83 percent of those polled believe that the war will continue “for an extended period of time.”
Republicans Bail
Those numbers suggest that the coalition Trump rode to victory in 2024 has broken down.
This had been pointed out back in April, just a couple of months into the war; Foreign Policy reported that “The Iran War Is Tearing Trump’s Coalition Apart.”
“The war and associated inflation are likely to cost Republicans more seats in the midterms—certainly more than they might have lost otherwise—but the president faces no imminent revolt from Congress,” columnist Emma Ashford wrote in that analysis. “He is remarkably unconstrained for a man who has started one of the most unpopular wars in U.S. history.”
That analysis also noted that some on the right, like Tucker Carlson and Marjorie Taylor Greene, who were part of the pro-Trump coalition that had long argued Trump would keep America out of foreign wars, were already souring on Trump and the Iran War.
Earlier this month, Carlson and Greene met with Rep. Thomas Massie and former official Joe Kent, among other Republican dissidents who oppose the war.
This led to speculation that Carlson or another of them could run for president in 2028, though Greene later denied it.
It does, however, show that a part of the GOP coalition that elected Trump could be lost to the party going forward.
“Unlike his core supporters, who will follow him through thick and thin, many in his broader coalition see the war in Iran as a broken promise.
This group will continue to be influential on U.S. foreign policy going forward,” Ashford wrote.
Since then, the war has continued without resolution for four more months and seems likely to drag on even longer.
In May, Politico wrote about how a crack has formed in another part of Trump’s 2024: Young supporters, including in chapters of Turning Point USA.
“The youngest of the MAGA coalition that helped return President Donald Trump to the White House is showing new signs of discontent — particularly over the administration’s handling of the war in Iran, rising gas prices and growing fears of another prolonged Middle East conflict,” the Politico story said.
What is MAGA After Trump?
With Trump having just over two years left in his presidency, the question must be raised of what “MAGA” even means in a post-Trump world. After all, for the last decade, MAGA has mostly just meant “whatever Trump says it is.”
The Hill looked at this question in July: whether MAGA can outlive Trump, and an author noted that George Wallace’s coalition did not survive him.
“In 2028, of course, Trump cannot run again, so the Republican nomination is up for grabs, and there will be a Republican nominee,” Garry South writes.
“But for any would-be Republican candidate, no matter how close they have been to Trump — his vice president or secretary of state, for instance — to think they will just automatically become heir to the MAGA base, and hold it together in the general election, would be making a huge mistake.”
About the Author: Stephen Silver
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist, and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review, and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, national security, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
