A four-alarm political fire is burning inside the Republican Party as we’re less than three weeks away from the 2026 midterm elections. And clearly Donald Trump and his Iran War are the biggest reasons the flames just keep growing.
Right now, the smart money is on the Republicans losing the House of Representatives.
A B-2 Spirit soars after a refueling mission over the Pacific Ocean on Tuesday, May 30, 2006. The B-2, from the 509th Bomb Wing at Whiteman Air Force Base, Mo., is part of a continuous bomber presence in the Asia-Pacific region. (U.S. Air Force photo/Staff Sgt. Bennie J. Davis III)
A U.S. Air Force B-2 Spirit assigned to the 509th Bomb Wing from Whiteman Air Force Base, Missouri, receives fuel from a 100th Air Refueling Wing KC-135 Stratotanker during Global Thunder 20, Oct. 28, 2019. Global Thunder is an annual command and control exercise that provides training opportunities for all of U.S. Strategic Command’s mission areas, tests joint and field training operations, and has a specific focus on nuclear readiness. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Trevor T. McBride)
But the data, and the way that the Republicans (and President Donald Trump) keep behaving, indicates that there’s more than just the House of Representatives on the line.
The Senate is now very much in play. So are several key governor’s races—including in places like Florida—that shouldn’t even be competitive right now.
An Embarrassing Defeat is Coming
A CNN report supports the belief that the GOP faces a historic defeat this November.
Trump advisers are apparently fearful that the political environment has become so toxic for the GOP, especially as the president’s unpopular war rages, that even many of the races previously considered “safe” (in places like Louisiana, for instance) are now endangered.
Trump has to campaign in places he shouldn’t have to worry about. Many states Trump won by double digits are apparently back in play.
In Texas, one of the reddest states, Trump is making his third trip to the Lone Star State in a month.
That’s because the GOP Senate candidate, Ken Paxton, is struggling in the polls against young Liberal Democrat candidate James Talarico.
Several newly competitive House races — and even a significant Democratic challenge for the governorship — are underway in Texas. Trump won this state by 14 points in 2024.
In fact, CNN has inside sources claiming that the Democrats had a better chance of winning key races in Texas than in Left-leaning Maine! Meanwhile, Alaska, the land of Sarah Palin, is now suddenly a toss-up state that is leaning Democratic this Midterm cycle. Similarly, South Carolina, the late Lindsay Graham’s state, has officially shifted from Republican to “Likely Republican,” according to CNN.
Panic is setting in everywhere for the GOP.
Meanwhile, the Republican Party is in an uncomfortable position.
Trump is hugely popular with their base. But he is hated among independents. Vulnerable Republican candidates had to run on Trump’s coattails in contentious primaries.
Now that the primaries are over, those same Republicans are acting like they have nothing to do with President Trump (while at the same time, in many cases, trying to get photo ops with the controversial forty-seventh president).
New York’s Mike Lawler has stated he has no plans to campaign with the president. Embattled Maine Republican Sen.
Susan Collins has not yet committed to campaigning with Trump.
And the otherwise loyal Tex. Governor Greg Abbott is skipping Trump’s San Antonio rally.
Two-Thirds of GOP Candidates are Fleeing Trump’s Orbit
A major Reuters report suggests that in 41 of 62 competitive House and Senate races, Republican candidates (two-thirds) are breaking with the president on policy grounds or simply downplaying their ties to him.
Reuters highlights 12 GOP candidates who have totally removed Trump’s name, image, and endorsement from their websites.
To be clear: Trump is not the former president.
He is a second-term president and technically the head of his party — and vast majorities of candidates from his own party are acting as if they’ve never even heard of Trump.
It’s a stunning tactic.
It won’t work.
Set aside the unpopular Iran War, which is causing so many ripple effects compounding the GOP’s woes this Midterm cycle.
The GOP faces other problems.
First, the president’s approval rating has been in freefall. It has hit a nadir of around 32 percent (about four points lower than President George W. Bush’s approval rating when Republicans lost the 2006 midterms).
In fact, Reuters reports that it’s Trump’s career low in terms of approval rating.
Secondly, registered voters prefer Democrats over Republicans (44 percent to 37 percent) on the congressional ballot.
Most importantly, though, is the 16-point spread among Independent voters, who favor Democrats 37 percent to 21 percent.
Then comes the third factor.
Iran.
The war has led to such severe spikes in the prices of gasoline (and everything else) and broader inflation that core candidates, like the embattled Texas Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton, are blaming the president’s wildly unpopular Iran War as being the source of his electoral woes this cycle.
Ohio is one of the most pro-Trump states.
Yet, multiple on-the-ground reports indicate that voters are upset with Trump over inflation, gasoline prices, and the Iran War.
These are all the fault of President Trump and his party.
Indeed, some GOP voters have publicly attacked Trump and the GOP for supporting these disastrous policies.
Here’s where things get stranger for the Republicans.
In places like Iowa, Ohio, Texas, Alaska, and Kansas—some of the most Red states in the Union— a New York Times/Siena poll shows that as many as 16 percent of likely Republican voters prefer the Democratic Party’s Senate candidates.
If anywhere between nine and 16 percent of their hardcore voters are contemplating either voting for the Democratic Party’s Senate candidate or simply not voting at all in November, that could be immensely damaging to the GOP at a crucial time.
A Generation Defeat
Just 30 days ago, Republicans’ worst-case scenario was losing the House but maintaining a grip (however loose) on the Senate.
The longer that the war has continued and the more that Trump has appeared unable (or unwilling) to acknowledge the damage this war has caused to the country, the worse things have gotten.
Now, the GOP could lose the House and the Senate—while possibly losing some key governor’s races.
All as Trump’s approval rating is a stunning 32 percent (and falling).
The GOP is set for its greatest generational loss yet.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert is the Senior National Security Editor. He also manages The Weichert Brief on Substack. Weichert also hosts “National Security Talk” on Rumble. He is the author of four bestselling national security books, most recently A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine (Encounter Books). Follow him via Twitter/X @WeTheBrandon.
