Does Putin Know How Badly the War Is Going? Russia appears to be preparing to put hundreds of thousands more troops on the front in Ukraine, even as analysts warn that President Vladimir Putin may be detached from the realities on the battlefield — and as Russia faces a major economic crisis that could severely hurt the country not just now, but in the long term.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its August 31 assessment that Putin appears to favor continuing a covert mobilization campaign after Russia’s September parliamentary elections. Russian sources cited by The Economist also say that Putin is committed to deploying another 300,000 to 400,000 troops to Ukraine, most likely without announcing another politically dangerous formal mobilization. Even if it means cracking down and preventing dissent and protests.
Putin in March of 2024. Russian State Media Photo.
Vladimir Putin Back in 20224 Russian Federation Photo
It comes as Russia struggles to achieve the territorial gains that Putin expects and considers necessary before working toward a negotiated peace deal with the United States and Ukraine. But if Putin is detached from the realities on the battlefield, and with reports suggesting he is not getting a full and accurate picture of how the war is going, it’s not hard to imagine a scenario in which Putin sacrifices tens of thousands more Russian lives.
Putin Appears to Favor Secret Mobilization
ISW said in its August 31 assessment that the Russian president appears to be in favor of “covert mobilization” following September’s State Duma elections. Analysts based their assessment partly on Russian sources who recently told The Economist on August 30 that Putin intends to deploy as many as 400,000 more troops to Ukraine. Rather than formally mobilizing reservists, the report said Moscow could continue to use regional governments to recruit through existing mechanisms.
And there is already evidence of how that plan could work, with ISW researchers noting that authorities have already begun intensifying recruitment in Penza Oblast since at least June, with men reportedly being detained and pressured into signing contracts with the Defense Ministry.
At the same time, senior Russian officials are also publicly denying that another mobilization is necessary. Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev said on August 28 that Russia has enough contract soldiers, while Russia’s UN ambassador Vasily Nebenzya made a similar claim on August 21.
Those denials, though, are being interpreted as an effort to calm fears ahead of the upcoming elections, given the unpopularity of another mobilization. It would be politically dangerous for the Russian president, and the Kremlin knows it.
Putin Wants Donetsk By December
Putin needs to take action, though, because he is reportedly working toward an incredible deadline: taking control of Donetsk by the end of this year.
On August 23, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Putin had ordered his military to take control of the remainder of Donetsk Oblast before December 31. ISW says that Russia currently controls around 79.9% of the region, with Ukrainian forces still maintaining control of several major population centers, including Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, as well as other positions across the heavily fortified Fortress Belt.
At present, Russia is not advancing quickly enough to meet that ambitious deadline.
Does Putin Know the Full Picture?
The deadline is already tight, given that December 31 is only a handful of months away and Putin has been working towards this goal since 2022. But it’s particularly significant given the mounting evidence that Putin might not actually be receiving an accurate picture of Russia’s progress in eastern Ukraine.
There have been multiple reports of exaggerated battlefield reports moving through the Russian command structure, with ISW analysts warning in August that Russian commanders appeared to be a creating a “fictional” picture of military success for senior commanders and the Russian president.
The problem became particularly apparent when Putin reportedly contacted a tactical-level commander from the 76th Guards Air Assault Division directly, rather than relying on information relayed through his senior commanders — news that suggests even the Russian president is curious about the reality on the front lines.
ISW analysts have also noted that Putin has repeatedly announced or accepted unrealistic timelines for capturing Donetsk — with the latest December deadline being just the latest in a long string of deadlines. According to ISW researchers, Putin has set 15 deadlines since 2022 to take control of the entire region, and Russia has failed to meet every one.
Did the Kremlin Keep Ratcliffe From Putin?
On September 1, the Russian investigative outlet Agentstvo reported that Putin had previously agreed to meet with CIA Director John Ratcliffe during his late-August visit to Moscow. But citing a Kremlin-connected source, the outlet said that the meeting was canceled after officials learned Ratcliffe intended to warn Putin that Russia’s military and economic position was deteriorating.
The Kremlin disputes the account and insists that no meeting was planned — but if the assessment is true, it suggests that the Russian president really may not be getting the full picture. And he’s planning a mobilization anyway.
About the Author: Jack Buckby
Jack Buckby is a British researcher and analyst specializing in defense and national security, based in New York. His work focuses on military capability, procurement, and strategic competition, producing and editing analysis for policy and defense audiences. He brings extensive editorial experience, with a career output spanning over 1,000 articles at National Security Journal, and has previously authored books and papers on extremism and deradicalization.
