Key Points – A new report from the KSE Institute warns that Europe must fundamentally rethink its defense strategy in the face of a dual threat: Russia’s long-term military ambitions that extend beyond Ukraine, and reduced U.S. involvement under the Trump administration.
-Russia is developing strategic weapons like the Sarmat ICBM and Poseidon torpedo, clearly intended to challenge NATO directly, while its defense budget soars.
-With the U.S. signaling a pullback, Europe faces a potential 25-year “window of vulnerability” and must now rapidly increase its own defense spending and industrial capacity to ensure its security.
Europe’s ‘Window of Vulnerability’: Facing Russia Without Full US Backing
A new report released by the KSE Institute on June 25 warns that Russia is preparing for military operations that extend far beyond its war in Ukraine, arming itself with long-range missiles, hypersonic weapons, and expanding its network of geopolitical alliances.
The Kyiv-based think tank said that these developments, combined with reduced U.S. involvement in the Ukraine conflict under the Trump administration, means Europe must fundamentally rethink its existing defense strategies.
“Russia is preparing capabilities that are clearly not tied to war in Ukraine, including naval forces for a possible confrontation in the Arctic,” said Pavlo Shkurenko, one of the co-authors of the report, in an interview with Newsweek.
The report also highlights specific systems like the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, Avangard glide vehicle, Tsirkon cruise missile, and Poseidon nuclear torpedo as evidence that Russia is building capabilities to challenge NATO directly.
Despite ongoing economic sanctions, and suggestions from Russian economists that the country may enter a recession soon, Russian defense spending is set to reach 13.5 trillion rubles ($145 billion USD) in 2025 – totalling 32% of the entire federal budget.
“That much spending in the military sector is creating circumstances for them to then threaten Europe and beyond,” Shkurenko also said, adding, “We have to understand it’s very unlikely that Russia will be interested in any kind of peace as of this moment.”
In the new report, the KSE Institute also noted cyberattacks on German and Baltic institutions, acts of sabotage against infrastructure, and growing ties with Iran, North Korea, and China as additional signs of Moscow’s broader ambitions.
The report came as NATO leaders gathered in The Hague on Wednesday to discuss plans to raise their collective spending commitments to 5% of GDP – a plan that was accepted by NATO members following calls from U.S. President Donald Trump for the alliance to dramatically increase its investment in defense infrastructure.
The claims come after similar reports recently suggested that Europe could face a 25-year “window of vulnerability” if the United States were to follow through on threats to withdraw from NATO made by President Trump.
Stark Choices
According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), European leaders could be forced to make “stark choices” about how to replace American military power as nations across the continent work to rebuild their caches of military hardware.
However, even with continued U.S. support for NATO, Russia’s enormous defense budget could suggest that even a 5% GDP commitment may not be enough.
About the Author:
Jack Buckby is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society. His latest book is The Truth Teller: RFK Jr. and the Case for a Post-Partisan Presidency.
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The real elephant in the room is called “CGIIM”. CGIIM is a rogue bull elephant who is invisible to most leftie-pinkoe voters. But, the elephant droppings are visible to all.
So far, the MAGA POTUS Trump has allowed the CGIIM to wander about while Trump cuddles up to Putin so he can see the “redlines” real close up. You know the code.
OK; C is for Canada. G is for Greenland I is for Iceland, I is for Ireland, and M is for Mexico.
All are deadbeat elephants in the cash for defense arena. That is, the CGIIM are all demanding freebie air protection as a free, no-cost, giveaway from tax payers in the USA. Give us free protection they constantly whine to the Yankee MSM. Or, who ever is in earshot.
3T in Canada, even does Enron accounting so that he can extend his Trudeau clown show. Yes, huge GNP is spent on Canadian defence, 3T assures the Yankee MSM. Not! Same for the other clown show regulars.
We speak Irish, so we do not have to protect our country as we can out blabber you Yanks at any pub.
No wonder, POTUS Obama betrayed the WEST in 2014 when he unilaterally greenlighted Putin’s “little green groomers” invasion of Crimea and the start of the 11 year human trafficking of little Ukrainian children.
And, POTUS Obama kicked in his favourite J. Epstein trick, As POTUS, Obama’s gift to the orc muscovites is that on behalf of the USA Obama gives every peasant russian all the child abuse that a needy russian language instructor and dance teacher can physically give. Obama starts in 2014 the Russian style Child Table top dancing that never ends in Moscow. Where in the heck is the Fellini of Today: 8 1/2 has been underway for 11 years in Obama-Democrat Cabal mentality.
The huge tragedy of the century: That this MAGA POTUS Trump just can not self-discern the slimy moral turpitude of the 2014 era Obama-Biden Democrat Cabal! That the MAGA elite so completely fail the MAGA rank and file in being able to drag the 2014 Cabal criminals into international moral court and hanging them high in this blatant visible 8 1/2 circus of child human trafficking.
For God’s sake, this is the second chance that the MAGA POTUS Trump has been given. All the Ukrainian families hear from the Yankee leader: Let the orc muscovite deviate elite have another two weeks of free, no-cost, cuddling with your victimized child. Oh, and then another two weeks, as the MAGA POTUS free gift to the 11 years of moral turpitude that started in the Jeffrey Epstein 2014 era.
Who is the film director that will show the drugged rogue elephant Bull POTUS Obama stagger about in the Putin 3 ring peasant russian circus. Obama’s Democrat Cabal had no clue in 2014 that the “Lolita” genetic need of the peasant russians was an ancient thousand year old czarist human trafficking tradition. In 1616 the fathers of Ukraine broke the muscovite pedophile spell as they stopped the Ottoman muslim gold from spilling into the Moscow caravans that brought child victims to the Muslim fort of Caffe to trade for that very needed GNP gold coinage. -30-