Key Points and Summary – Russia has a significant stealth bomber problem, as its next-generation PAK DA program is plagued by considerable delays, a situation exacerbated by the recent loss of operational bombers in Ukraine’s “Operation Spiderweb” drone strike.
-Originally slated for production in 2027, the ambitious flying-wing bomber, designed to replace aging Tu-95s and Tu-160s, is now not expected to enter service until the mid-to-late 2030s.
-According to experts like Justin Bronk of RUSI, Russia will struggle to accelerate the program due to budgetary shortfalls and technological constraints caused by Western sanctions, leaving a critical gap in its long-range aviation capabilities.
Does Russia Have a Stealth Bomber problem?
Back on June 1, Ukraine launched a daring attack, using drones, on Russia’s airfields, in what soon became known as Operation Spider’s Web.
According to Military Watch Magazine, the June 1 attack likely damaged Russia’s Tu-95MS intercontinental range bombers, and possibly some of its older Tu-22M3 bombers. Those losses, according to that report, might encourage the Russians to accelerate the PAK DA program to build a next-generation stealth bomber.
However, according to that report, production of those stealth bombers has been slow-going.
“Considerable delays to the PAK DA program were a primary cause for the Defence Ministry to decide to resume production of the Tu-160 as a stopgap measure, with the new bomber now expected to enter service near the end of the 2030,” Military Watch magazine said. “Prioritisation of the program, however, could potentially bring this date forward to the mid-2030s.”
Those delays, Military Watch said, are “in line with broader trends in the Russian combat aviation sector since the end of the Cold War.”
A Russian Dud?
A National Interest story published late last month, shortly before the Spider’s Web attack, looks at the question of whether the PAK DA project is “a flying dud.”
“On paper, the Russian bomber promises to represent a stealthy ‘flying wing’ type aircraft with a hefty ordnance load and long-range capacity,” the piece says. “In reality, the Russian platform has continued to miss target dates surrounding its production progression. Like many other Russian-made military systems, the PAK DA may not be as formidable as the Kremlin would like to suggest.”
While things are a bit secretive with the project, and its exact specs and features are not clear, the project is expected to resemble the American B-2 bomber, with the ability to “travel up to 7,500 miles with the capacity of carrying 30 tons of weapons ranging from conventional and hypersonic to nuclear arms.”
It’s been reported that the initial prototype of the PAK DA entered production in 2021, intending to be ready in 2023, and full production is was expected to begin in 2027. However, that timeline appears no longer the operative one.
“This ambitious timeline was considered murky at best when first publicized, and after the commencement of Russia’s Ukraine invasion in February 2022, the expected arrival date of the bomber was pushed back much further,” The National Interest said.
The PAK PA plane, whenever it does arrive, is expected to compete with the B-21 Raider and H-20 Xi’an jets.
Russia After Spider’s Web
Reuters wrote in early June about how exactly Russia will proceed with replenishing its bomber fleet, following the June 1 attack by Ukraine.
U.S. intelligence believes that about 20 jets were hit in the attack, while Ukraine believes the number is closer to 20.
The report, citing Western aviation experts, concluded that “Russia will take years to replace nuclear-capable bomber planes that were hit in Ukrainian drone strikes.”
Reuters cited a Federation of American Scientists (FAS) report last month stating that Russia had signed a contract with Tupolev in 2013 to build the PAK DA, but that “state test flights are not scheduled until next year, with initial production to begin in 2027.”
Hans Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the FAS, told Reuters that “while it would be logical for Russia to try to speed up its PAK DA plans, it may not have the capacity,” as Russia is facing delays with other defense projects as well.
Justin Bronk, of the RUSI think tank, agreed.
“Russia will struggle to deliver the PAK DA programme at all in the coming five years, let alone accelerate it, due to budgetary shortfalls and materials and technology constraints on industry due to sanctions,” Bronk told Reuters.
About the Author: Stephen Silver
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
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