Key Points and Summary – Ten days after the US strike on Iran, the mission’s success remains highly contested.
-President Trump insists Iran’s nuclear sites were “obliterated,” but a preliminary DIA assessment reported by CNN suggests the program was only set back by “a matter of months.”
-This narrative is complicated by new satellite imagery showing Iranian crews with heavy machinery already active at the Fordow impact sites, assessing the damage.
-Experts caution that Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium was likely not destroyed, leaving its nuclear potential intact. The true extent of the damage, therefore, remains a subject of intense debate and uncertainty.
The Iran Nuclear Threat Isn’t Gone Just Yet
President Donald Trump, ever since the U.S. attacked Iran’s nuclear sites about ten days ago, has been insisting that Iran’s nuclear facilities and capabilities are “obliterated.”
At the same time, the White House has reacted angrily to anyone who suggests otherwise, whether it’s government intelligence estimates or media reports.
The U.S. bombing raids, which deployed “bunker-buster” bombs on the Fordow nuclear facility, followed nearly two weeks of bombing by Israel of Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Later, a ceasefire was agreed to between Israel and Iran, which has now been held for over a week.
The truth, by all accounts, is that it’s too early to tell whether Iran’s nuclear capabilities have been dealt a decisive blow or that the Iranian regime has maintained the ability to reconstitute those capabilities. Other officials have stopped short of the “completely obliterated” language, with Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, stating in a briefing last week that “initial battle damage assessments indicate that all three sites sustained extremely severe damage and destruction.”
Possible Reconstitution
Per CNN, Rafael Grossi, the chief of the UN’s nuclear watchdog, has said that the U.S. strikes did not do complete damage to the Iranian program, and Iran could resume uranium enrichment “in a matter of months.” The comments came as part of the Pentagon’s preliminary assessment, which was reported on last week.
“The capacities they have are there,” Grossi said in a CBS News interview. “They can have, you know, in a matter of months, I would say, a few cascades of centrifuges spinning and producing enriched uranium, or less than that. But as I said, frankly speaking, one cannot claim that everything has disappeared and there is nothing there.”
Meanwhile, Amir-Saeid Iravani, Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations, said in an interview on CBS News over the weekend that Iranian enrichment will “never stop,” while claiming an “inalienable right” to engage in peaceful activity.
“To preserve our peaceful nuclear activity, will remain always in peaceful manner. So the enrichment is our right, and an inalienable right, and we want to implement this right,” the ambassador said on CBS’ “Face the Nation.”
Will There Be Talks Again?
Meanwhile, while the White House has indicated that it would like to return to diplomatic talks again with Iran as soon as this week, Iran’s foreign minister struck a more doubtful tone on that in his own interview with CBS News on Sunday.
“I don’t think negotiations will restart as quickly as that,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on the show, in remarks through a translator.
“In order for us to decide to reengage, we will have to first ensure that America will not revert back to targeting us in a military attack during the negotiations,” the foreign minister said. “And I think with all these considerations, we still need more time.”
Araghchi also said in the CBS interview that “one cannot obliterate the technology and science for enrichment through bombings… If there is this will on our part, and the will exists in order to once again make progress in this industry, we will be able to expeditiously repair the damages and make up for the lost time.”
He added, however, that “the doors of diplomacy will never slam shut.”
“Ongoing Work”
Meanwhile, CNN reported Monday on satellite imagery that showed “ongoing work” at the Fordow facility, the heavily fortified facility that was among those struck by the U.S.
The photos, from Maxar Technologies, showed “an excavator and several personnel are positioned immediately next to the northern shaft on the ridge above the underground complex. The crane appears to be operating at the entrance to the shaft/hole,” which indicates that repairs are underway at the Fordow site.
About the Author:
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
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