Joe Biden Can Stop China’s Cobalt Monopoly

Returning from meeting British Prime Minister Winston Churchill and Soviet Premier Joseph Stalin in Yalta in February 1945, President Franklin Delano Roosevelt took a quick detour to the Great Bitter Lake in the Suez Canal. On board the USS Quincy, Roosevelt met King Abdul Aziz al-Saud “Ibn Saud,” the founder of modern Saudi Arabia. Their negotiations were nearly as consequential as Roosevelt’s discussion with his World War II allies as the Suez Canal meeting set an energy partnership to shape the latter 20th century.

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) could be to the 21st century what Saudi Arabia was to the 20th, if the White House has strategic vision and DRC can overcome its legacy of poor governance and dysfunctional corruption.

DRC mines account for more than 70 percent of the world’s cobalt, a metal necessary for lithium batteries, high-performance alloy, electric vehicles, and computers. For decades, the People’s Republic of China has wheedled and bribed its way into some of the DRC’s most lucrative cobalt mines.

In January 2019, Felix Tshisekedi succeeded Joseph Kabila. Diplomats spun the transition as democratic and peaceful. While the latter was true, the former was not; Tshisekedi had come in second to Martin Fayulu in the December 2018 polls but managed to bribe and manipulate his way into the presidential palace. According to Transparency International, the DRC is among the world’s most corrupt countries, ranking alongside Afghanistan, Burma, and Sudan.

CMOC, one of China’s largest mining interests, acquired the Tenke Fungurume Mine in November 2016. At the time, looming elections distracted many in the Obama administration. It was possible to block the deal. While U.S. companies cannot pay the bribes Congolese politicians expect, the White House might have leaned on Freeport-McMoRan, the Phoenix-based owner of the mine, not to sell to the Chinese concern.

Tshisekedi’s rise provided another opportunity to block Chinese efforts to corner the market. In 2022, Tshisekedi alleged that CMOC misreported reserves, failed to pay $7.6 billion in interest and royalties, and violated its pledge to build infrastructure. Tshisekedi suspended the contract and demanded renegotiation. Xi Jinping welcomed the Congolese leader to Beijing and gave him the red carpet treatment; Biden napped. CMOC kept its concession.

Today, there is a new opportunity but again, Washington sleeps. The Atlantic Council’s Joseph Mulala Nguramo, Congo’s first and only West Point graduate, and one of Washington’s most astute observers of the Great Lakes region of Africa points out to me that Kinshasa now says it opposes the sale by Chemaf SA, a Congolese company with offices in the United Arab Emirates, to China’s Norinco. Chemaf wants to cash out given decline in cobalt prices. Chinese mining companies enjoy state backing and so can whether downturns in the market in order to consolidate their positions. Beijing’s monopoly is not yet complete, but it is near. Nor is China only focused on Congo. Chinese investment also grows in Cuba, the world’s fifth largest supplier of the strategic metal.

To be fair, it is hard to do business in the DRC, and it is not clear Tshisekedi will play ball. In such a case, Washington should cease pretending Tshisekedi is either a democrat or legitimate and work with democratic forces who see Congo’s future in the West rather than as a Chinese vassal. Tshisekedi and his backers should understand personally and bluntly what it means for the the United States to consider them enemies.

At issue is not simply one or two mines in southern Congo, but rather the ability of the U.S. and Western economies to continue free of Chinese blackmail and extortion. For Biden or his successor, the coming year will be the time to repeat Roosevelt’s triumph onboard the USS Quincy. If Biden, Harris, or Trump forfeit the opportunity, they will be handing strategic dominance over the 21st century economy to Beijing.

About the Author: Dr. Michael Rubin

Michael Rubin is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, where he specializes in Iran, Turkey, and the broader Middle East. A former Pentagon official, Dr. Rubin has lived in post-revolution Iran, Yemen, and both pre- and postwar Iraq. He also spent time with the Taliban before 9/11. For more than a decade, he taught classes at sea about the Horn of Africa and Middle East conflicts, culture, and terrorism, to deployed US Navy and Marine units. Dr. Rubin is the author, coauthor, and coeditor of several books exploring diplomacy, Iranian history, Arab culture, Kurdish studies, and Shi’ite politics, including “Seven Pillars: What Really Causes Instability in the Middle East?” (AEI Press, 2019); “Kurdistan Rising” (AEI Press, 2016); “Dancing with the Devil: The Perils of Engaging Rogue Regimes” (Encounter Books, 2014); and “Eternal Iran: Continuity and Chaos” (Palgrave, 2005).