Putin Could Test a Tactical Nuclear Weapon in Response to ATAMCS Strikes

After many months of inaction, President Joe Biden has finally allowed Volodymyr Zelensky’s rocket forces to launch modern long-range missiles deep into Russia. The ATACMS missile has now flown toward military targets in Vladimir Putin’s homeland.

How will Putin respond? There are reports that the Kremlin has ordered ballistic missile launches into Ukraine to answer. There is even media chatter that Putin has ordered at least one conventionally armed hypersonic missile into Ukraine, which has never been done in a shooting war.

Just hours before, it was reported that an ICBM was used, although that seems less likely now.

More Russian Hypersonics on the Way?

This is invariably a warning shot to show that Putin is willing to go with the hypersonic option if these Ukrainian accounts can be believed and confirmed by the United States and its allies. So far, the Americans have disputed that an ICBM was used. Putin will likely continue to send long-range missiles at civilian targets such as cities and power distribution facilities to answer back.

One area that Russia can brag about is its missile defense capabilities. After the first reported ATACMS attack from Ukraine that involved six missiles fired at targets in the Ukrainian-occupied Kursk region, Russia said it destroyed five in flight and damaged the sixth one. The United States intelligence analysts disagreed with the Russian assessment and said that there were actually eight ATACMS missiles fired, and that Putin’s forces only downed two of them.

Russia Could Always Test a Tactical Nuclear Weapon

One action Putin could choose that would scare everyone is the testing of a battlefield nuclear weapon as a warning over future ATACMS use.

He could show the world that a low-yield tactical device test would freeze the war in place and keep the international community guessing as to how far Putin would go down the nuclear path. Russia certainly has a huge stockpile of more than 1,500 tactical battlefield nukes. He just has to test one to show he means business.

Indeed, Russia has reportedly changed its nuclear doctrine failsafe approach to atomic warfare. “The use of Western non-nuclear rockets by the Armed Forces of Ukraine against Russia can prompt a nuclear response,” the strategy document said. This would be seen as a lower threshold for the nuclear option from Russia.

ABC News reported that “Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said November 19th that the ATACMS attack is a signal that Western nations ‘want escalation.’”

However, U.S. intelligence says it sees no signs that Russia will go with any type of nuclear weapon. They did not dismiss the possibility that the Kremlin could order a nuclear test. This action is always possible for Putin, even though the Americans say that the U.S. military and NATO have no plans to fight the Russians in any way despite arming the Ukrainians.

More Hypersonic Missiles From Russia Are on the Way

Putin could also show off his hypersonic missiles, which he believes can evade Ukrainian air defenses.

Russia has the air-launched Kinzhal hypersonic weapon (there are disputes about whether this missile is actually a maneuverable hypersonic) and the ship-launched Zircon hypersonic model. Ukraine is not scared of these missiles, and on November 16, the military claimed it shot down both types during a Russian aerial attack.

This would mean, if confirmed, that the Russian hypersonic weapon program is over-rated. The Ministry of Defense has described these weapons as “unstoppable” in the past. They are also capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

Putin Is a Cornered Rat

Just how far will Putin be pushed?

His missile defenses must be on alert for the ATACMS. A nuclear response is risky, although a test of the battlefield nuclear weapons is always possible. His hypersonic weapons are not as good as advertised. So, his decision set is limited, but even cornered rats are dangerous. The longer Putin waits, the more likely it is that he could embark on a new plan. That could always mean the nuclear option. So, look for the possible use of ICBMs to show that Russian rocket forces are strong enough to deliver a heavy conventional load. There will be more mass missile attacks from the Kinzhal and Zircon that will stretch Ukrainian defenses.

However, as his amended nuclear doctrine has shown, Putin does not appear to be afraid of the atomic option. Zelensky will order the firing of as many ATACMS as it takes to eliminate Russian targets in Kursk.

At one point, Putin is likely to up the ante, and this could mean a tactical nuclear weapon test that would shock the world.

About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.