Key Points and Summary – Russia’s 2025 summer offensive in Ukraine has devolved into a brutal war of attrition, with Moscow suffering its steepest casualties since the invasion began—an estimated 31,000 killed in action since May 1st alone.
-Despite these staggering losses, the Kremlin sustains its “meat grinder” assaults by successfully recruiting tens of thousands of new soldiers each month with generous financial incentives.
-While Russia’s territorial gains are slow and incredibly costly, Ukraine is struggling with its own manpower shortages and a dependency on Western aid.
-For now, Russia can afford to pay the bloody price for its incremental advances.
Russian Losses in Ukraine This Summer Among Steepest of the War
Motivated by an apparent desire by Vladimir Putin to push forward in Ukraine regardless of the cost, Russian casualties are mounting.
But thanks to generous financial incentives, Russia can afford to continue pushing forward.
Russian forces in Ukraine are reportedly in the middle of a big summer push, one of the biggest since the simmering conflict in Ukraine reignited over three years ago. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s obsession with Ukraine, and, it seems, snatching victory from the jaws of stagnation, has provided the impetus for accepting staggering losses in both men and materiel.
Though neither Ukraine nor Russia publicize their losses as a matter of military secrecy, estimates of those numbers indicate that Russian losses this summer are some of the biggest the country has sustained since February 2022. Russian advances in Ukraine this summer are among the quickest Russia has enjoyed, excepting the advances made during the initial stages of the invasion. Russia is paying dearly for those losses.
An estimate from The Economist, a newspaper, put Russia’s killed in action during this summer offensive at 31,000 since May 1st. That number does not include those wounded, which would likely be triple or quadruple killed, or around 93,000 to 124,000. Russian losses since February 2022 are estimated at 900,000 to 1,300,000, with around 190,000 to 350,000 of those killed, The Economist reports.
How Does Russia Keep Fighting in Ukraine?
But are Russian losses, steep as they are, unsustainable? Hardly.
Driven to volunteer by the promise of preferential educational opportunities for children, no-interest loans and mortgages, as well as steadily-increasing sign-up bonuses worth in some cases close to 8 years of wages, Russia still manages to recruit many thousands more soldiers than are killed or wounded, despite a recently-reported dip in cash bonus incentives.
In contrast, Ukraine’s recruitment problem has yet to be solved, despite a similar cash-based incentive to sign up. Unlike in Russia, where adult males age 18 and up could potentially be drafted into service, the minimum age in Ukraine is 25. President Zelensky and his administration have maintained that this war should not engulf the next generation. However, Kyiv has experienced intense difficulties getting young men to sign up as the war drags on.
Like Russia, Ukraine has turned to unconventional sources to fill the ranks, including probing the prison population for volunteers.
While those convicted of the most serious crimes, like rape, murder, or violent assault, or other more serious offenses, are not eligible to volunteer, others can serve, wiping their sentence from their records and offering those who do join the ranks an opportunity for social redemption.
Ukraine Has Big Losses as Well
However, Ukrainian losses have also been steep.
UALosses, a website that catalogues losses on the Ukrainian side, estimates that the country has suffered between 73,000 and 140,000 deaths since February 24th, 2022.
Ukrainian civilians are suffering too. Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital city, as well as other major urban centers around the country, have been pummeled in recent weeks by ever greater barrages of Russian missiles and drones, sent en masse to take out Ukrainian infrastructure as part of Moscow’s effort to break morale and expend precious air defense assets.
Just recently, on July 7th, American President Donald Trump reversed a decision made by Elbridge Colby, the Pentagon’s Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, to pause weapon deliveries to Ukraine, citing the potential need for those weapons in other theaters should war break out elsewhere.
The move caught European allies, Ukraine, the Department of Defense, and the President himself unawares. “They [Ukrainians] have to be able to defend themselves,” President Trump said, explaining his reversal of Colby’s seemingly unilateral pause on Ukraine military aid. “They’re getting hit very hard now.”
Ukraine War: What Happens Next?
While Ukraine is slowly conceding small parts of the front to Russian forces, they are “still putting up a mighty defence against a far bigger power. Despite the summer push and delays to weapon shipments from America, Russia has little to show for its advances,” The Economist wrote on July 9th.
“The current offensive still works out at just 15 square kilometres per day—roughly the size of Los Angeles airport. Over the past year it has gained just 0.038 square km (about nine acres) per dead soldier. Even at the quicker pace of the past 30 days, it would take another 89 years to conquer all of Ukraine. Seizing the unoccupied parts of the four regions that Mr Putin already claims—Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhia—would take until February 2029.”
But that is little comfort for Ukraine, nor a deterrent for the Russian President and his generals. “His armed forces are recruiting 10,000-15,000 more troops per month than Ukraine’s are, luring Russians with generous sign-on bonuses and salaries rather than relying on the conscription now roiling Ukraine,” The Economist adds.
So while Russian losses are incredibly steep, and likely the highest that the Russian Army has experienced since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022, those losses are, for now at least, manageable.
About the Author: Caleb Larson
Caleb Larson is an American multiformat journalist based in Berlin, Germany. His work covers the intersection of conflict and society, focusing on American foreign policy and European security. He has reported from Germany, Russia, and the United States. Most recently, he covered the war in Ukraine, reporting extensively on the war’s shifting battle lines from Donbas and writing on the war’s civilian and humanitarian toll. Previously, he worked as a Defense Reporter for POLITICO Europe. You can follow his latest work on X.
Military Concepts
A 7th Generation Fighter Is Coming
Jim
July 15, 2025 at 9:36 am
Because of drone warfare, massing troops & armored vehicles is problematic, but also the strategy of attrition and the tactics thereof which Russia has employed has led to small unit actions.
Literally, the Russians are using dune buggies & dirt bikes for speed & maneuverability where they outflank the Ukrainian trenches, enter at one end, roll up the troops to the other end and repeat at the next trench.
(A reason these small unit actions work is because Ukraine is overstretched on the front line to the point where there are literally only five or six soldiers per trench where there should be 15 or 20 soldiers.)
Also, because Russia is using small units (six soldiers) with lightweight, speedy, and maneuverable vehicles casualties for the Russians have been low.
Sure, if you consume Western mainstream, corporate media (particularly British media) you’ll get an inaccurate picture of what is really happening at the front… 5th Generation Warfare, information war, to prop up support on the home front is alive and well.
But here’s the thing: you can deceive yourself into a terrible and crushing defeat, but you can’t lie your way to victory.
What’s happening on the battlefield matters way more than the lies that are being told about it to prop up support on the home front.
Russia continues to advance as the Pentagon puts it, like a “lava flow,” slow, but unstoppable.
The vice slowly tightens around Kiev’s throat and they are slowly, inexorably strangling.
It’s slow, but at the end of the day they are dead.