Key Points – Russia’s casualties in the Ukraine war are approaching a staggering one million (killed and wounded) by June 2025, with losses exceeding 1,000 soldiers daily, yet Moscow continues its offensive and recruitment efforts.
-This willingness to endure massive losses in pursuit of its objectives, recently reaffirmed by Dmitry Medvedev’s statement rejecting compromise and demanding Ukrainian capitulation, poses a profound challenge to Western strategic thinking.
-NATO, which has not faced an adversary with such a high tolerance for human cost since World War II, must now urgently reassess its preparedness and deterrence posture against a state that treats such monumental losses as an acceptable price for its goals.
Russia’s Massive Losses in Ukraine: NATO Should Take Pause
Before the end of June, Russia is likely to suffer its millionth casualty since the invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022.
In a report published by The Economist, the scale of Russia’s losses were laid out in simple terms: by losing roughly 1,000 skilled soldiers to death or injury every day, Russia’s losses in this conflict far exceed those suffered in every war it has fought since the Second World War.
The losses, the report states, are testament to “Ukraine’s stubborn defence against a far stronger power,” as well as Russia’s ability to “shrug them off and to keep recruiting men to throw into the meat-grinder.”
How We Know the Numbers in Ukraine
While Russia remains tight-lipped about its losses, analysts have been able to determine just how many men have been lost to the war so far by compiling data published by the Ukrainian general staff, additional open-source intelligence (OSINT) analyses.
Additional research by independent Russian media outlets like Mediazona and Meduza, citing inheritance records and obituaries published online, also reveals that as many as 140,000 Russian soldiers have died in the conflict. By analyzing these records alongside broader demographic data, some researchers estimate that the real death toll could be much higher.
One analysis of excess mortality based on probate filings estimated that around 165,000 Russian men had died by the end of 2024, with 90,000 of those deaths occurring in just six months. Given the scale of Russian combat operations over the last year, The Economist noted that the actual number killed may even be approaching 250,000.
The number of wounded soldiers is believed to be much higher. Most analysts estimate a wounded-to-killed ratio of 4-to-1, and if that ratio is accurate, it brings the estimated number of casualties to one million.
Is NATO Prepared For An Adversary Like This?
The staggering toll of Russia’s war in Ukraine is a reminder of the Kremlin’s willingness to endure massive losses in pursuit of its effort to annex territories Moscow considers to be historic Russian territories.
That obsession with winning was reinforced on Tuesday, June 3, when Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, said that Russia was seeking “swift victory” in this week’s Istanbul talks, rather than “compromise.”
Medvedev cast doubt on the possibility of an agreement being reached in Turkey, making clear that Russia will not back down on demands that Ukraine cedes more territory, adopts neutrality, and limits its military power.
Moscow has made it clear through its actions that losses on this scale are a price it is willing to pay, which raises a critical question: Is NATO prepared to confront an adversary, now and into the future, that not only possesses significant military capability but is also willing to suffer enormous casualties to achieve its objectives?
NATO has not faced an opponent like this in generations. During the Cold War, nuclear deterrence shaped the strategic landscape, and in more recent conflicts like Iraq and Afghanistan, the West primarily fought insurgencies or technologically inferior forces. None of these adversaries showed Russia’s willingness to take staggering battlefield losses – though largely because they lacked the means to do so. Not since the Second World War have the U.S., U.K., and other major NATO powers engaged with a state actor that treats mass death, at this monumental scale, as an acceptable price of victory.
Western strategy has long assumed that high casualties would restrain adversaries. Russia has proven this is not always the case. What, then, will deterrence look like in the future?
NATO leaders: over to you.
About the Author:
Jack Buckby is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society. His latest book is The Truth Teller: RFK Jr. and the Case for a Post-Partisan Presidency.
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