“We Shall Outlast Them”: Will Putin Survive His Fiasco In Ukraine? The war in Ukraine is going seriously sideways for Russia. With more than 1.4 million casualties, its gas and oil industries taking a beating, and Moscow now under daily attacks from Ukraine, even its most ardent supporters are concerned that a coup could unfold against President Vladimir Putin.
Yet some analysts believe that he may survive this meatgrinder of a war that he believed would be over in a matter of weeks, that has now stretched for four and a half years and appears no closer to a successful conclusion than it did in early 2022.
T-80 Tank Russian Army. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
T-80 Tank from Russian Army. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Hanna Notte is the director of the Eurasia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Monterey, California, and she has a book coming out next month titled “We Shall Outlast Them, Putin’s Global Campaign To Defeat The West.”
And in a recent essay in the New York Times, based on her upcoming book, she makes the point that Putin’s gamble in Ukraine could pay off.
Russia’s Adaptation And Refusal To Yield To Western Sanctions
Notte traveled to a dozen countries that support Russia, and she found that Moscow has had to adapt countless times and absolutely refuses to yield to the West.
It has courted countries that have rejected the West and blamed Western democracies for their issues, notably South Africa, the countries of the Sahel, India, and, of course, China.
Russia was able to sidestep Western and US sanctions with the help of the UAE. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stressed Russia’s wish to trade using non-Western (American) currencies for trade with countries such as India, seeking to make payments in UAE dirhams.
Dubai also served as a haven for young Russian men who refused to be conscripted into the military when Putin partially mobilized in 2022.
Notte wrote, “For Russia’s shadow tankers, ferrying Russian oil to willing buyers across Asia, the U.A.E. became a place to shapeshift and camouflage. In the netherworld of shell companies and obliging professionals, Russia was able to sidestep Western sanctions.”
However, Russia’s Military And Political Power Is Eroding
Despite all of its political maneuvering, Russia can’t mask its own frailty. Its power both politically and militarily is eroding. Two of Moscow’s biggest allies, Syria and Venezuela, long supported by Russia, have had their leaders ousted.
In Syria, the ouster of Bashar al-Assad was a massive strategic and reputational loss for Moscow, severely undermining its geopolitical standing. The downfall of the Syrian regime dismantled Russia’s primary military foothold in the Middle East, damaged its credibility as a reliable ally, and compounded domestic resource strains.
The collapse of the regime caused Russia’s key military sites, including the naval base at Tartus and the Khmeimim air base, to be lost. Moscow’s failure to prevent the collapse of its most significant regional ally exposed the limits of Russian military support.
The raid by American special operators, resulting in the arrest of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, was another massive strategic and financial blow to Moscow, stripping the Kremlin of its primary geopolitical foothold in the Western Hemisphere.
The loss exposes Russia’s shrinking capacity to project global power while triggering painful economic write-offs and damaging its reputation.
Russia’s And Putin’s Fortunes Rest On Victory In Ukraine
Putin had dreams of reconstituting the Soviet Union, the collapse of which he’s said was one of the worst days of his life. But now everything hinges on victory in Ukraine.
He believed that the invasion of Ukraine, which actually began in 2014, with the seizure and annexation of Crimea and part of the Donbas, was an indictment of Washington, that the US doesn’t write the rules internationally any longer.
War On The Rocks posted two and a half years ago that, “Russia’s redirected foreign policy generates costs and risks to the Kremlin. For Russia, much depends on the war.
“Victory in Ukraine would prove that Russia is an autonomous global actor capable of thwarting formidable adversaries.
“Should the war linger indefinitely or should Ukraine surge forward, Russia’s extreme anti-Westernism may start to look short-sighted, accident-prone, and self-defeating.”
Putin initially, during President Trump’s second term, had a sympathetic ear, where he urged Ukraine to agree to Russia’s terms. But that ear, and the war’s fortunes, have shifted.
And Trump has recently not only signaled that the US will continue to support Kyiv, but has agreed to allow Ukraine to manufacture Patriot air defense missiles.
But Moscow’s chips are all pushed into the middle of the table, something they, their allies, and the rest of the world will be watching closely.
Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, spoke to a group of Russian elites recently about the war’s outcome and said, “Our friends, neighbors and our adversaries and enemies are all keeping a close eye on the way it unfolds.”
Right now it isn’t unfolding particularly well for Putin, and Russia, on the battlefield, in their illegally annexed territories, and at home. But they will continue onward, and never yield. They don’t know how to do anything else. But the population is getting weary of the war.
And it may result in desperate measures from the Kremlin.
About the Author: Steve Balestrieri
Steve Balestrieri is a National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing on defense, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications
