Russia’s nuclear triad is usually formidable. The navy’s “boomer” submarines fire noteworthy nuclear missiles, and the boats can run silent and deep. There are upgrades and additions to its strategic Tu-160M bomber fleet. However, the land-launched leg of the triad needs modernization. That is why Vladimir Putin has high hopes for his Sarmat “Satan II” ICBM program.
Last Testing Attempt Worked Out Fine
Sentinel ICBM U.S. Air Force. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Putin has received some good news on the Sarmat recently. On May 12, his rocket forces successfully test-launched a Sarmat to full effect at the Kura test range on the Kamchatka Peninsula in Russia’s Far East. Putin, who usually overpromises and underdelivers, believes the Sarmat ICBM can be deployed in full later this year. That estimation may be optimistic.
The Sarmat Has a Mixed Record
The RS-28 Sarmat ICBM hasn’t enjoyed the best testing record. Putin has claimed that it’s an unstoppable super weapon and the Russians have been working on the missile since 2018, but the Sarmat has missed nearly every milestone during its history.
A test failed last November. It never gained a correct trajectory and altitude. The missile simply died and crashed back to earth.
The Missile Arsenal That Will Bring About Doomsday
When Putin first announced the Sarmat eight years ago, he boasted that the West would have no defenses against it. This ICBM would be part of Russia’s “Doomsday Arsenal” and liable to give the Kremlin a key asset if nuclear war ever sparked.
The Russian state-run propaganda apparatus was ginned up on Putin’s doomsday fleet. The media had stories that it was already in service, then journalists said it would arrive on active duty soon, while they tried to enhance Putin’s braggadocio about the super weapon.
Last Time the Missile Launched Well Was Four Years Ago
The Sarmat did have a successful launch in 2022 from the Plesetsk cosmodrome. So, of course, Putin claimed that it was ready for combat at that time. He made that boast again last year, and then the poorly executed test launch happened at the end of 2025.
Beating the West in the Current Arms Race
Now he is trumpeting the Sarmat despite its past difficulties to remain on schedule. The Sarmat is supposed to replace the aging Soviet-built Voyevoda ICBM (SS-18 Satan I).
“This is the most powerful missile in the world,” Putin declared, adding that “the combined power of the Sarmat’s individually targeted warheads is more than four times higher than that of any Western counterpart,” NPR reported.
A 35th Fighter Squadron F-16 Fighting Falcon flies near the Korean peninsula during a dogfighting training scenario during exercise Ulchi Freedom Shield 25 at Kunsan Air Base, Republic of Korea, Aug. 20, 2025. UFS25 is a combined, joint, all-domain military training exercise that integrates ground, air, naval, space, cyber and information elements, enhancing readiness through realistic combat simulations. (U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Landon Gunsauls)
Since first coming into office in 2000, Putin has worked to improve the Russian nuclear triad. His efforts have borne little fruit, but there have been green shoots of success in submarine and bomber development.
Is This Better Than the U.S. Sentinel Program?
The Russian dictator has much riding on the Sarmat. He wants to beat the Americans, who are developing the new Sentinel ICBM that won’t be ready until the 2030s. So he figures that if his hype machine can be dialed up, he will make the Pentagon’s nuclear war planners worried.
Satanic Inspiration
The Sarmat is as powerful as the Voyevoda but with higher precision. It is capable of suborbital flight,” Putin said, “giving it a range of more than 35,000 kilometers [21,700 miles] and an extended capability to penetrate any prospective missile defenses,” as noted by CBS.
Naysayers Believe the Sarmat Is Over-rated
Nuclear experts, after the failed test last November, were skeptical that the Sarmat works well. Sergey Ivashchenko, a British analyst experienced with aerospace systems architecture, explained that behind the devastating explosion of the prior failed test “lies a deeper story: the loss of competencies, system failures, and the collapse of illusions about technological superiority of Russia’s ballistic missile force and the industry that supports it.”
SOUDA BAY, Greece (March 27, 2022) The Ohio-class ballistic-missile submarine USS Georgia (SSGN 729) near Souda Bay, Greece, during training with U.S. Marines from Task Force 61/2 (TF-61/2), conducting launch and recovery training with their combat rubber raiding craft, March 27, 2022. TF-61/2 will temporarily provide command and control support to the commander of U.S. 6th Fleet, to synchronize Navy and Marine Corps units and capabilities already in theater, in support of regional Allies and Partners and U.S. national security interests. (U.S. Marine Corps photo by Sgt. Dylan Chagnon)
SILVERDALE, Wash. (Oct. 27, 2025) Ohio-class ballistic missile submarine USS Pennsylvania (SSBN 735) arrives at Naval Base Kitsap-Bangor following routine operations at sea, Oct. 27, 2025. Pennsylvania is assigned to Commander, Submarine Group (SUBGRU) 9, which exercises operational and administrative control authority for assigned submarine commands and units in the Pacific Northwest providing oversight for shipboard training, personnel, supply and material readiness of SSBNs and their crews. SUBGRU-9 is also responsible for nuclear submarines undergoing conversion or overhaul at Puget Sound Naval Shipyard in Bremerton. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Ryan Riley).
Nevertheless, Putin wants the Sarmat fully operational before 2027. “The positive results of the Sarmat missile system launch will allow us to deploy the first missile regiment armed with this missile system to combat duty in the Uzhur formation of Krasnoyarsk Krai by the end of this year,” he said.
Can the Sarmat Eventually Deliver the Goods?
Is the Sarmat worth it? Russia certainly needs a new ICBM system. The others date back many years. But the time the Russians have wasted on the Sarmat is adding up, and each promise makes one wonder whether this long-range projectile can enter active service without further delays. Putin loves that he is not hemmed in by arms limitations treaties, so his rocket forces are going full-bore.
But weapons of mass destruction are not easy to fashion. Russia is known for producing scientists and mathematicians, as its universities are usually proficient at educating students in the STEM fields. But Putin may have bit off more than he can chew when it comes to the Sarmat.
Outfoxxing the Golden Dome
Nuclear defense planners in the United States are racing to build President Donald Trump’s Golden Dome missile shield, a highly expensive system that may take years to complete. Congressional Budget Office estimations reveal that the Golden Dome may require $1.2 trillion over 20 years.
Russia can make sure the Sarmat is fully operational before the Golden Dome is ready. That is likely Putin’s strategy. This would give Russia a first and second strike advantage with its favorite nuclear weapon.
We’ll have to wait and see whether the Sarmat will be fully operational by the end of this year and whether it can complete another successful test. Putin has significant political capital on the line, and beating the Golden Dome would make all the effort to develop the inconsistent Sarmat program worth it.
About the Author: Brent M. Eastwood, PhD
Author of now over 3,500 articles on defense issues, Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: A Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for US Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former US Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
