After disagreements with Trump, disruptions to Starlink, and a general shortage of air defenses, Ukraine is currently vulnerable. Like a shark smelling blood in the water, Russia is capitalizing on Kyiv’s weakened position and has been increasing its attacks against the country’s energy infrastructure.
Unlike previous years, which relied heavily on strategic aviation and cruise missiles, Moscow’s most recent attacks have used drones, particularly the new jet-powered Geran-4 and Geran-5.
These jet-powered drones are essentially budget cruise missiles and can fly much faster than previous Gerans, making them more difficult to intercept.
Ukraine Switchblade Drone. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Switchblade Drone. Image Credit: Industry Handout.
Their cost-effective design also lets Russia produce and launch more drones, forcing Ukraine to expend its limited air-defense stock.
Ramping Up its Drone Attacks
On the morning of October 16, the Ukrainian Air Force announced that Russia had launched another large drone attack against the country.
The service claimed that the Russians had launched around 149 strike drones, 108 of which were jet-powered or Gerbera and Parodiya decoy drones.
They were launched from Oryol in Russia, occupied Donetsk Oblast, and Hvardiiske in occupied Crimea.
Recently, the Russians have been building new launch bases in the Rostov Oblast in anticipation of future attacks. According to the Ukrainian Air Force, air defenses shot down or jammed 114 “Shahed-type” UAVs, 77 of which were newer Geran-4/Geran-5s or other types.
According to the Air Force, 27 drones reached their targets, striking 24 locations across Ukraine. OSINT channels reported explosions at 30 separate locations, some of which may have been interceptions. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that it had launched attacks against “logistics centers employed in the interests of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as well as vessels that delivered military cargo to Ukraine.”
Several explosions were reported as far West as Ukraine’s Volyn Oblast along the border with Poland. Ukraine’s Western Oblasts, which have typically been less affected by Russian attacks compared to the Kyiv Oblast, or the Eastern Oblasts, have been targeted more frequently in Russia’s most recent drone attacks.
According to some reports, some drones in last night’s attack were detected flying at around 700 to 800 km/h, noticeably faster than the Geran-5’s stated 600 km/h.
This suggests Russia has upgraded its Geran-5s to make them faster, or introduced a new jet-powered munition with speed comparable to an air-launched cruise missile.
Strategic Bombings Without Strategic Aviation
Last night’s attack comes as the newest in Russia’s massive drone attacks against Ukraine.
On October 14, Russia launched one of its largest drone attacks yet, utilizing over 400 Geran-2 drones and around 80 jet-powered munitions.
These attacks targeted electrical substations, warehouses, railway infrastructure, and port infrastructure in the Odesa Oblast, data centers, and other unknown, likely military, installations. The city of Kropyvnytskyi in the Kirovohrad Oblast was hit especially hard on October 14, as over 100 munitions targeted the city’s infrastructure along with the nearby Kanatove Airbase, which houses Ukrainian tactical aviation.
As a result of near-daily attacks on Ukraine’s power grid, all three Combined Heat and Power Plants (CHPPs) in Kyiv are no longer operational, forcing the capital to rely on power from other regions.
Russia carried out these attacks without deploying any long-range strategic bombers.
These attacks are more cost-effective for Moscow than deploying its high-cost cruise missiles. The Geran-2, for example, costs between $20,000 and $80,000 per unit, depending on the estimate.
Newer Geran drones cost more: the Geran-4 costs around $85,000 to $120,000, and the Geran-5 around $90,000 to $140,000. These more expensive drones, however, are still cost-effective compared to a Kh-101 cruise missile, which costs around $2 million per unit.
Straining Ukraine’s Defenses
For the last several days, Russian attack UAVs have been terrorizing Ukraine’s skies, straining the country’s air defenses. Fortunately, Moscow’s attack drones are much easier to intercept than ballistic missiles, but the constant attacks are still costly for Ukraine. The Ukrainians typically rely on interceptor drones and mobile fire groups to intercept slower Geran-2 drones.
However, intercepting jet-powered Geran-4 and Geran-5 drones is more difficult. The Ukrainian armed forces are testing new interceptor drones against Russia’s more sophisticated munitions, some of which reportedly show potential. Kyiv’s challenge is finding a reliable way to intercept Russia’s new drones without expending its valuable supply of surface-to-air missiles.
Ukraine’s air defense efforts hit a roadblock earlier this week after the country faced new, sudden restrictions on its Starlink internet connection.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) use the Starshield Package, which provides a data link to its drones, including interceptor drones. Earlier this week, multiple AFU sources reportedly lost connections with their drones after exceeding certain speeds.
This not only complicated Ukraine’s drone campaign but also its air defenses, since its interceptor drones rely on Starlink. Russia is likely increasing its drone campaign in response to the new Starlink restrictions, which President Zelenskyy claimed have not been fully lifted yet.
About the Author: Isaac Seitz
Isaac Seitz, a Defense Columnist, graduated from Patrick Henry College’s Strategic Intelligence and National Security program. He has also studied Russian at Middlebury Language Schools and has worked as an intelligence Analyst in the private sector.
