Ukraine says it has uncovered Moscow’s alleged plans to sabotage its energy grid ahead of the winter period.
Ukraine’s energy minister warned that Moscow would target Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odesa in an attempt to cut off heat, water, and electricity.
KEKAHA, Hawaii — U.S. Army 3rd Multi-Domain Task Force fires the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), which can fire traditional rocket artillery rounds or long-range missiles with various payloads, on Pacific Missile Range Facility, Barking Sands, during Exercise Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) 2024, July 11. Twenty-nine nations, 40 surface ships, three submarines, 14 national land forces, more than 150 aircraft and 25,000 personnel are participating in RIMPAC in and around the Hawaiian Islands, June 27 to Aug. 1. The world’ s largest international maritime exercise, RIMPAC provides a unique training opportunity while fostering and sustaining cooperative relationships among participants critical to ensuring the safety of sea lanes and security on the world’ s oceans. RIMPAC 2024 is the 29th exercise in the series that began in 1971. (Japanese Ground Self Defense Force Courtesy Photo)
HIMARS Test US Military Creative Commons Photo
The New York Times reported on Friday that Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal had discussed the update with European partners a fortnight ago.
What Does the Document Say?
The intercepted document, which The Times said it could not independently authenticate, refers to attacks on hydroelectric and thermal electric stations, boiler houses, water infrastructure and substation facilities, using up to 1,000 missiles, drones and bombs.
Switchyards connecting Ukraine’s three operating nuclear plants to the grid are also slated for attack.
The document suggests that Russia will pursue the following aims:
-Attacking western Ukrainian substations used to import electricity from Europe.
-Then targeting hydroelectric facilities.
-Finally, launching strikes on switchyards connected to Ukraine’s three nuclear power plants.
The objective was to remove around 15 gigawatts from Ukraine’s electricity-generating capacity, according to the plan Shmyhal described.
The minister said Ukraine already knew of two such documents, both “very detailed and very specific,” and described them as containing “the amount of weaponry needed to destroy each facility.”
HIMARS Rocket. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
“The types of weapons range from ballistic missiles to jet-powered and conventional drones,” he continued.
In another interview, Shmyhal noted that Ukraine’s European allies were surprised by the “cold, terrorist calculation” behind the proposed assault on Ukraine’s energy facilities.
The document also called for attacks on pumping and water-treatment facilities, which would shut off 90 percent of the electricity and heat in the three major cities. Sewage systems would also be impacted.
Reuters reported that Russia launched its biggest coordinated attack on Ukraine’s electricity infrastructure in months this Wednesday.
Prime Minister Sergii Koretskyi noted that “since summer, there’s barely been a day without an attack on our energy infrastructure.”
“But a combined strike of this scale hasn’t happened since the end of last heating season,” he noted.
Russia Could ‘Exploit’ Winter Conditions
Andrii Sybiha, Ukraine’s foreign minister, accused Russia of seeking to exploit “cold, darkness, and disruption of normal life,” while Russia’s defense ministry claimed its attacks targeted the Kyivska substation, Kyiv hydroelectric station and Trypilska thermal power station, which it alleged were involved in “military product manufacturing.”
On Friday, Russian attacks continued. One person was killed in Kyiv, and two Dnipro bridges were temporarily closed.
Ukraine has requested the delivery of at least 300 Patriot missiles to intercept incoming Russian missiles this winter. “Every interceptor missile truly saves lives,” President Volodymyr Zelensky noted after Wednesday’s barrage, which left much of the capital without electricity and heat.
Repairs Ongoing
It took Ukraine months to repair its electricity infrastructure after months of attacks. Shmyhal explained that by August, his country had restored 4.8 GW of generating capacity and 15 GW overall.
These figures should reach 21.4 GW by year-end if the fighting does not damage facilities again.
In addition to repairing the existing facilities, Ukraine has constructed more than 200 protective structures around its critical infrastructure.
According to President Zelensky, who spoke last month, intelligence reports indicate that Russia is focusing its efforts on specific sites in Ukraine.
He pledged to increase Ukraine’s electronic warfare capabilities and air-defense systems in response.
According to Olena Pavlenko of the DiXi Group, another winter will be “like running a marathon with only one lung.” In a similar vein, DTEK CEO Maxim Timchenko stated that a “concentrated ballistic strike can destroy any one of our power plants.”
Nuclear Plants Could Face Sabotage
The alleged Russian attack plan covers not only destroying power-generating facilities but also sabotaging electric transmission and distribution infrastructure, including interconnectors, substations, and nuclear power plant switchyards.
After Wednesday’s attack, rolling blackouts hit the capital, water pressure dropped, and electric transport stopped.
Centrenergo CEO Serhii Isachenko said after the attack on the Trypilska thermal power station: “Our first priority now is to assess the condition of the equipment and determine the scope of the necessary work.”
The equipment is not new.
According to Eduard Kashkov, a DTEK crew chief, “some of the equipment is as old as I am.” According to President Zelenskyy, Ukraine is preparing to “deprive Russia of its bet on ballistic terror” before winter.
About the Author: Georgia Gilholy
Georgia Gilholy is a journalist based in the United Kingdom who has been published in Newsweek, The Times of Israel, and the Spectator. Gilholy writes about international politics, culture, and education.
