A Deal for Donetsk Will Not End Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine – In just one year, one month, and one week’s time, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine will have surpassed a duration longer than the Second World War in Europe.
World War Two, effectively encapsulating the rise and fall of fascism on the continent, saw geopolitical shifts not seen since Napoleon’s permanent exile more than 100 years earlier. By late 1942, Adolf Hitler’s Nazi Germany directly controlled 1.5 million square miles of the European continent. Three years later, Hitler and fascism in Europe were dead.
Putin in May of 2021 Russian Federation Photo
Putin 2021 Photo on Airplane Image Credit Russian Federation
By contrast, the twists and turns of Russia’s full-scale invasion have been minimal. After failing to capture Kyiv in the war’s first six weeks, Russia pulled back its forces in April 2022. Counteroffensives in Kharkiv and Kherson pushed the invading armed forces back even further in September of that year. Ever since then, Russia has only made incremental gains across the country.
It’s been a costly war on both sides, but the losses have been far more damning for the nation that many believed would capture the Ukrainian capital within weeks. 1.5 million soldiers have been killed or wounded in Vladimir Putin’s “special military operation”, and the Russian Motherland is now under nightly attack from Ukrainian drones.
Donetsk
There have been numerous public justifications by Putin for his full-scale invasion, not least the defeat of “Nazism” in Ukraine – despite the fact that President Volodymyr Zelensky is Jewish – and the so-called liberation of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. Russia, joined only by other disputed territories, considers these to be independent republics.
Despite the pledge to “liberate” Donetsk and Luhansk, Russia still does not control the entirety of the combined region known as Donbas. While Luhansk is under full occupation according to Russia, Ukraine still controls around 30% of Donetsk, even recapturing five square miles of previously occupied territory earlier this month.
Putin has repeatedly urged his armed forces to capture Donetsk by the end of the year.
At the current rate, Russia is not likely to fully occupy the oblast until 2032 at the earliest.
Concessions
Since Donald Trump returned to the White House in January last year, U.S. officials have pushed for a compromise peace agreement, with talks centering on Donetsk.
It’s a long way from fulfilling Putin’s objectives for the war, but it allows the Russian President to claim a core ambition – the “liberation” of the Donbas – has been achieved.
Ukrainian President Zelensky has already ruled out such a concession. Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers have died defending the region, and there is little military or political incentive to withdraw from currently controlled land.
“I am not going to surrender my country because I have no right to do so,” Zelensky said ahead of the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska last year. “If we leave Donbas today, our fortifications, our terrain, the heights we control, we will clearly open a bridgehead for the preparation of a Russian offensive.”
Another Offensive
Zelensky has repeatedly warned that conceding the Donbas will serve as a springboard for a future offensive. With Putin’s justification for the invasion stretching beyond territorial gain in Ukraine’s east, Zelensky is most likely right. The Russian President has not only denounced “Nazism” in Ukraine; broadcast interviews with Putin regularly begin with a lengthy monologue on how Ukraine has always been historically Russian.
Russia has already invaded Ukraine twice. It would be foolish to rule out a third invasion. Conceding Donbas is simply impossible for Ukraine’s leader.
Compromise
Despite the differing perspectives on the war, both sides feel as if they’re winning. Kremlin-controlled media regularly praises the country’s successes, while nightly attacks on Russian infrastructure go unreported on the eastern side of the border.
For this reason, one must wonder why either side would compromise over Donetsk?
Russia, happy to dispose of troops, is still making territorial gains in the region.
Ukraine, on the flip side, holds key strongholds that Russian troops are yet to encounter, and so it could be even longer than another half-decade before Russia fully occupies Donbas.
Both Moscow and Kyiv are so far apart on basic issues that the idea of a compromise solution involving concession of Donetsk seems inconceivable.
The war, therefore, may be never-ending, with Russia only ceasing its full-scale invasion once it’s completed.
The alternative is for all nations to isolate Russia, crippling its economy to an extent where war is no longer affordable.
Either scenario will take decades, let alone years. An impossible negotiating position for either party is unlikely to speed up the war’s distant conclusion.
About the Author: Shay Bottomley
Shay Bottomley is a British journalist. He has written for the Western Standard, Business Insider, Maidenhead Advertiser, Slough Express, Windsor Express, Berkshire Live and Southend Echo.
