Yesterday’s unannounced whirlwind visit by US CIA Director John Ratcliffe has taken on new significance after another report late today, 26 August.
The crux of the story is that Russian President Vladimir Putin is increasingly desperate – so much so that he may resort to using a tactical nuclear weapon against Ukraine.
Fat Boy Nuclear Bomb At U.S. Air Force Museum. Photo Credit: Harry J. Kazianis/National Security Journal Original Photo.
The former KGB mid-level officer (US military O-5 rank) is being pressed from multiple sides. Putin, said more than one Russian analyst in both US and European capitals, “increasingly feels backed into a corner.”
His military is suffering massive losses as his oil and petrol industry continues to be degraded by Ukrainian drone strikes.
Meanwhile, his economy is increasingly wobbly as account holders across the nation are engaged in what is turning into a run on Russian banks.
“Drones are flying. Things are burning down. Nervousness is growing. And people’s everyday wisdom may be kicking in that they need to have cash under their pillow and not somewhere in banks where it may never be returned,” a former Russian finance official told the Washington Post.
He also pointed out that Russian banks are in more trouble than many suspect, as much of their capital is tied up in loans outside of Russia.
The word is the Russian leader now concludes any hope he held out for peace negotiations has vanished as the talks have reached an impasse.
His answer is a dramatic escalation of attacks on Ukrainian cities, shipping and other targets, according to at least three sources close to the Kremlin who have spoken to Bloomberg.
“Negotiation frameworks have all effectively collapsed, leaving the two warring sides back at square one,” these individuals are reported to have said. “Putin won’t end the war under economic pressure from sanctions and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and logistics networks,” their narrative continues.
Get Ready for a Blowback: What Putin Is Saying and How Other See It
One of the factors supposedly pushing Putin towards the nuclear option is that he now looks at Ukraine as just a surrogate for NATO.
In this mindset, Ukraine’s attacks on Russia are the same as attacks by NATO states, as alliance members supply Kyiv with weapons and intelligence, said the sources close to the Kremlin.
They also warn the most recent increases in missile attacks on Ukraine are only the beginning of a planned program of military escalation.
Putin, it is pointed out, has telegraphed where he plans to possibly focus his military might next in comments that he made last weekend to a Russian state TV reporter.
He dismissed the economic dislocations from Ukrainian attacks that are creating fuel shortages and dismantling Russia’s all-important e-commerce sector.
Ukraine, he said, “opened this Pandora’s box. Well, be ready to get a blowback on your most sensitive sectors of the economy,” he warned.
The Russian sources discussing what they see as Putin’s intentions regarding escalation are then joined by a fourth individual.
He says the Kremlin increasingly sees this path, as well as potentially resorting to the use of nuclear warheads, as one of the only remaining options.
They explain that the voices of pro-war hardliners are growing louder and gaining more followers in certain circles.
Those same hardliners are articulating their advocacy of using nuclear strikes not only more aggressively, but also with far less ambiguity than any time since the February 2022 invasion.
Political Maneuvering and Moscow Geography
One of the potential checks on Putin “pressing the red button,” as they say in the movies, is that major players are warning him off this course of action.
Just last month, the leadership in Beijing told him not to even consider using a nuclear weapon, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
According to the Ukrainian President, “China responded very clearly and very firmly, even in ultimatum form, that there cannot even be thoughts about the use of nuclear weapons.” Senior Chinese officials later confirmed they had delivered this message to Moscow.
The CIA Meeting?
Today the fear of nuclear weapons being used is on the short list of reasons why US CIA Director John Ratcliffe may have made his unannounced, secret 4-hour visit to Moscow.
But who he met with and what they discussed remains unknown.
The less-than-reliable Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov claims Ratcliffe met only with his Russian intelligence service counterparts and did not see the Russian president, but other evidence suggests otherwise.
Peskov’s claim is suspect in light of reports that Putin abruptly canceled a major event yesterday that was to be attended by hundreds of people.
Then, for anyone familiar with the geography of Moscow, other signs point towards Ratcliffe having heads to the Kremlin at one point.
What was suspected to be the CIA chief’s motorcade was seen rolling through the center of Moscow, down the Novy Arbat, formerly Prospekt Kalinina, which runs through the dead center of the city.
If Ratcliffe had only met with his direct opposite, Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) Director Sergei Naryshkin, he would only have to travel the short distance from the Vnukovo-2 Airport VIP terminal to the nearly adjacent SVR headquarters in the suburb of Yasenovo in south-southwestern Moscow.
This interaction would not have required Ratcliffe to be anywhere near the Kremlin, yet his motorcade appears to have been in the vicinity.
The other indicator that something as serious as Moscow using nuclear weapons is the equipment on board the aircraft that Ratcliffe flew into Moscow.
The communications systems installed in the new-design Roll-On Conference Capsule (ROCC) mounted in the cargo bay make the C-17 an airborne Security Compartmented Information Facility (SCIF) under US Intelligence Community Directive 705, the standard governing classified facility construction.
With this setup, a senior official inside the ROCC can conduct the same classified conversations they would at CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia, while flying at high altitude on arrival in and departure from Moscow.
This suggests Ratcliffe had to convey the substance of his discussions back to Washington the minute he was airborne from the Russian capital, not hours later, after landing at Joint Base Andrews.
All of which seems like the CIA Director’s conversations went way above the severity of a “don’t you dare cyberattack or launch drones against NATO.” It seems preventing a far more catastrophic event was the top item on his agenda.
About the Author: Reuben F. Johnson
Reuben F. Johnson has thirty-six years of experience analyzing and reporting on foreign weapons systems, defense technologies, and international arms export policy. Johnson is the Director of Research at the Casimir Pulaski Foundation. He is also a survivor of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. He worked for years in the American defense industry as a foreign technology analyst and later as a consultant for the U.S. Department of Defense, the Departments of the Navy and Air Force, and the governments of the United Kingdom and Australia. In 2022-2023, he won two awards in a row for his defense reporting. He holds a bachelor’s degree from DePauw University and a master’s degree from Miami University in Ohio, specializing in Soviet and Russian studies. He lives in Warsaw.
