Key Points and Summary on Ukraine War – The Trump administration’s decision to halt some arms shipments to Ukraine, citing low US stockpiles, is a “profoundly self-destructive” foreign policy mistake driven by a myopic focus on China.
-This “China-first” view, championed by officials like Undersecretary of Defense Elbridge Colby, dangerously underestimates the immediate threat posed by a declining but destabilizing Russia. As argued by Michael Carpenter in Foreign Affairs, a Ukrainian victory is still possible with decisive Western aid.
Russian T-90M Tank. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
-By pausing support, the US not only risks a Russian victory but also signals a lack of resolve that could embolden China to act against Taiwan.
America’s Giant Ukraine Mistake
The Trump administration may have just committed a profoundly self-destructive, perhaps even reckless, foreign policy mistake.
According to Politico, “The Pentagon has halted shipments of some air defense missiles and other precision munitions to Ukraine due to worries that U.S. weapons stockpiles have fallen too low.”
The Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, Elbridge Colby, reviewed the Pentagon’s munitions stockpiles and concluded that its arsenal of critical weaponry was getting thin.
“This decision was made to put America’s interests first following a review of our nation’s military support and assistance to other countries across the globe,” a White House spokeswoman said. “The strength of the United States Armed Forces remains unquestioned — just ask Iran.”
Why Now?
Naturally, if U.S. stockpiles are truly approaching a dangerously low level that makes the United States vulnerable to attack, then the administration is correct to place America’s survival above Ukraine’s or any other country’s.
Unfortunately, given the administration’s casual relationship with veracity, we have no way of knowing whether Colby is right in his assessment.
Moreover, given his longstanding belief that the United States should focus its efforts on China and downplay its role in Europe—as well as Ukraine and Russia—it’s legitimate to ask whether Colby is in the position to objectively assess existing Pentagon capabilities. The following statement by him suggests that the answer might be no: “Ukraine should not be the focus. The best way to avoid war with China is to be manifestly prepared such that Beijing recognizes that an attack on Taiwan is likely to fail.”
Focusing Just on China
Subjectivity aside, the problem with Colby’s obsession with China is that it’s focused on only one country. China is strategically important, and it does merit Washington’s attention. But Russia also matters.
Not because Russia is, like China, a rising superpower, but because it’s a declining regional superpower interested, not in international stability, but in international instability. Russia’s illegitimate president, like so many Russian leaders before him, views stability as promoting Russia’s backwardness and decay. In contrast, instability enables Russia to use its diminishing resources and authority with greater effect
Russian T-90M Tank in Ukraine War. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
That makes Russia far more dangerous to the United States and the world than China—at least in the short and medium terms. Declining empires often do stupid things—such as launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and embarking on a war Russia cannot win.
If the United States and Europe agree that a Russia victory would be disastrous for the world and act accordingly, by supplying Ukraine with the requisite military and financial aid, a strategic disaster can be averted.
Yes, Ukraine Can Still Win
A Ukrainian victory is perfectly possible. The Atlantic Council’s Michael Carpenter puts it well in the latest Foreign Affairs: “Russia is much weaker economically than many analysts realize, and hard-hitting sanctions and export controls can still cripple its war economy. Ukraine is fighting smartly and could turn the tide on the battlefield with more high-end drones, air defense systems, long-range missiles, and munitions. With a change of strategy, Ukraine can still win the war in the near term—if both Europe and the United States decide to give it the assistance it needs.”
The White House’s inability to appreciate that Putin and his empire are a menace to the world will ultimately prove to be destructive of America and its interests. If U.S. aid to Ukraine remains shut down, America will have to navigate a profoundly more dangerous world than exists today.
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At the very least, China may conclude that seizing Taiwan won’t provoke Washington. Other countries will follow suit, and sooner or later the United States will be enmeshed in forever wars.
Will its leaders be up to the task of forestalling America’s decline? Quite possibly, not.
About the Author: Dr. Alexander Motyl
Dr. Alexander Motyl is a professor of political science at Rutgers-Newark. A specialist on Ukraine, Russia, and the USSR, and on nationalism, revolutions, empires, and theory, he is the author of 10 books of nonfiction, including Pidsumky imperii (2009); Puti imperii (2004); Imperial Ends: The Decay, Collapse, and Revival of Empires (2001); Revolutions, Nations, Empires: Conceptual Limits and Theoretical Possibilities (1999); Dilemmas of Independence: Ukraine after Totalitarianism (1993); and The Turn to the Right: The Ideological Origins and Development of Ukrainian Nationalism, 1919–1929 (1980); the editor of 15 volumes, including The Encyclopedia of Nationalism (2000) and The Holodomor Reader (2012); and a contributor of dozens of articles to academic and policy journals, newspaper op-ed pages, and magazines. He also has a weekly blog, “Ukraine’s Orange Blues.”
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waco
July 2, 2025 at 3:05 pm
Russia has no option other than achieving victory in the current struggle against the nazis.
Even an outright victory won’t ensure total peace in the long term, but at least the nazis will have to spend the better part of their immediate future licking their wounds instead of thinking about the fastest route to Moscow.
During WW2, the red army had to endure four bloody campaigns to eject those earlier generation nazis from cities like belgorod and orel that lie near the approaches to Moscow.
Today, some or a few of the new generation nazis are still lurking around the kursk region, and putin (belatedly) has decided to carve out a buffer zone to finish them off.
Astonishingly, the US white house has seen a flash of bright light in the process, and now is stopping supplies of ammo to the nazis. On account of low domestic stocks.
That will accelerate the downfall or defeat of the nazis and they will have to retreat westward toward the dniper.
Hopefully, Russia can then claim victory over the nazis, and the nazis will argue who’s fault it is for their defeat.
Jim
July 2, 2025 at 6:09 pm
Russia is the largest country in the World, potentially with the largest natural resource base in the World.
It stretches from Eastern Europe to the Pacific Ocean.
Ukraine is a broken country heading nowhere fast.
America’s giant Ukraine mistake… pushing & prodding NATO East, supporting a bloody, violent overthrow of a democratically elected president (turning a blind eye to the police-state created afterwards), and provoking a war our proxy couldn’t win.
The policy failed… by its own weight of bad assumptions and failed intelligence before it was ever implemented (underestimating Russia’s ability to overcome economic sanctions and the ability to field a strong army… which is only getting stronger as time wears on… not so for Ukraine).
Time to accept facts & reality.
And move on from a failed policy.
doyle-3
July 2, 2025 at 6:45 pm
The western world, night and day, and also day and night, links ‘russia’ and ‘war’ in one same sentence.
Ditto for ‘china’ and ‘space war’ & ‘taiwan’ and ‘invasion’.
What the phrck’s going on in the western mind today.
Russian victory against the banderovtsy of Ukraine today will prevent, or help prevent outbreak of ww3 in Europe once Donald trump leaves office.
Conversely, if Russia loses to the nazists, ww3 in Europe becomes unavoidable, or as sure as the next sunrise.
TO HELL WITH THE BANDEROVTSY !!!
Quartermaster
July 3, 2025 at 10:51 am
IF Russia were to win, adn that is not likely, then the influence and the power that results from that will go in the sewer. I saw it after Vietnam, but Reagan came along adn corrected that. Now it’s Trump adn he is geopolitically incompetent. Instead of strengthening production, he has allowed industry to continue on the destructive path Clinton, Obama, and Biden allowed. The problems of Submarine maintenance has not been solved, adn we will desperately need them when war with China breaks out.
Trump is being myopic an stupid.
Bye the bye:
1. Nazis do not run Ukraine. They do run Russia.
2. Ukraine is not a failing state. While Russia continues to weaken itself, Ukraine is getting stronger. They can now meet over 40% of the war weapons and material needs adn Europe is helping with the rest.
3. The above 3 commenters are living in a fake news bubble built by Kremlin propaganda.
Jim
July 3, 2025 at 11:26 am
In more generals terms, the United States needs to get out of the regime change business.
As long as the sliver of regime change resides in the back of the minds of U. S. policy makers (should a nation defy U. S. policies or choose an independent vector diplomacy) then working through diplomacy to build better and more beneficial international relationships will always lack commitment and follow through.
America is a republic, not an empire (although, it’s hard to see that distinction in actual policy choices).
As opposed to what war supporters think, America has not benefited from “regime change” policies these last 25 years.
In fact, in the last 25 years, the United States has frittered & squandered a preeminence hard won in the course of the Cold War.
Now, war supporters want to throw good money after bad with no end in sight (forever war)… par for the course…. they never learn… they have no sense to put on the breaks of an obviously failed policy.
Keep jamming a square peg in a round hole and you get nasty splinters all over the place.
Tomm Aron
July 3, 2025 at 2:42 pm
Win now? Russia was always going to win. The only reason the West cares is because early on Nato and the EU painted itself into a corner turning a largely non event into an existential issue. Now the West has no face saving exit from their over the top rhetoric. Ukraine was controlled by Moscow for well over a half century and it had zero impact on western democracy. Remember Vietnam? Hint, ‘they’ won and the world didn’t collapse.