Key Points and Summary – The recent US B-2 stealth bomber strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities has spurred a significant new intelligence-gathering effort by China, according to former State Department China expert John Tkacik.
-Beijing’s Ministry of State Security (MSS) is now reportedly focused on two key areas: understanding President Donald Trump’s unpredictable decision-making process and gathering data on the operational capabilities of the US long-range bomber force.
-The successful and surprising raid on Iran, despite Chinese satellite surveillance, has given China’s military planners “considerable pause,” forcing them to reassess US strategic capabilities and resolve, particularly concerning potential conflicts over Taiwan or in the South China Sea.
China Is Really Interested in the B-2 Bomber
According to a former State Department specialist on the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the world’s most populous Communist nation is projected to significantly augment its intelligence gathering and analysis activities vis-à-vis the US in the form of two specific initiatives.
One will be an uptick in the monitoring and analysis of US President Donald Trump’s decision-making processes connected to the B-2 bomber strikes conducted last weekend against nuclear weapons development and uranium enrichment sites in Iran. Chinese intelligence places a high value on understanding how major national security initiatives are formulated at the highest levels of the US Government and the associated actions or indicators connected to them.
Of specific interest is the process of how Trump stated that he would make a decision whether or not order the strikes on Iran “within the next two weeks”, and then 48 hours later, B-2 bombers were headed to drop their ordnance on three primary targets in the Middle East nation.
But the second is an enhanced effort to gather more data on the operational methods and the actual combat long-range strike capabilities of the US Air Force’s (USAF) long-range bomber force.
This effort is expected to have three areas of focus:
-The operational performance of the B-2 bomber has been particularly good since it has received numerous upgrades in recent years.
-Additionally, what was learned about the Pentagon’s move to send B-2 bombers to Guam as a deception operation to keep the real mission of the other B-2s a secret.
-What B-2 mission requirements will be inherited by the B-21, and how is the mission of that smaller bomber likely to differ from the previous-generation flying wing stealth bomber?
-What are the advancements in stealth technology and the command and control of the B-21 that will present a greater challenge to the PRC Air Force (PLAAF) and air defense forces?
Today, there are only 19 operational B-2s, but there are calls for at least 145 B-21s to be built – a substantial change in the threat profile presented by the USAF bomber force.
China’s B-2 Stealth Bomber Nightmare Has Arrived
“Xi Jinping is now demanding his intelligence services provide a whole new assessment of Donald Trump’s statements on nuclear weapons – from the Trump 45 administration and even before,” according to long-time former State Department China expert John Tkacik who spoke to the Washington Times on the subject.
The PRC’s Ministry of State Security (MSS), its leading intelligence service for both foreign and domestic surveillance, is likely to expand intelligence collection activities related to Trump.
If they can gain access, they are likely to request interviews with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) leader Kim Jong-un to learn any insightful details from his past meetings with Trump in Singapore in 2018 and Hanoi in 2019.
The MSS will also seek to learn if Trump has an in-depth understanding of the sophisticated weaponry in the US arsenal.
Chinese intelligence will also want to determine if the use of the B-2s is now part of the US Single Integrated Operational Plan (SIOP) and if the B-2s are now part of the nuclear war plan for the PRC, Mr. Tkacik said.
“The bottom line is the deployment of B-2s, their support and logistical infrastructure to Guam gives Xi Jinping considerable pause — not just with his Taiwan planning but with the Philippines, South China Sea, and Japan,” he said.
Mr. Tkacik said the PRC’s satellite reconnaissance and surveillance network had early warning of the B-2 deployment to Diego Garcia last month.
“So, they went hunting around for the air mobile B-2 support units for an idea of how the Air Force plans and organizes strategic bombing campaigns for this never-before-used system,” he said.
Strategic Surprise from Stealth Bombers
The PRC’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has special units with the responsibility to keep tabs on the movements of the B-2s bombers.
In Tkacik’s estimation, those units were nonetheless surprised by the Iran raid because there were no previous indications of what President Trump was planning.
The PLA also probably was fooled by his announcement that he would not make a decision for an attack on Iran for two weeks.
After the Iran strikes, PLA intelligence was likely looking for any indicators and attempting to analyze telemetry from command and control systems of the bombers.
This could be done by “working backward from imagery at the US bomber base, deployment of air refueling units and ground preparations” and then correlating those movements with any recordings of telemetry and other intercepts, according to Mr. Tkacik.
Beijing regards Guam as closer to strategic targets in the PRC and the DPRK than Iran, and PLA military intelligence analysts may have previously assessed that the US base on the island would need a major upgrade before it could support B-2 combat operations in the western Pacific, Mr. Tkacik said.
If the Pentagon is planning for possible attacks on the PLA’s hardened ICBM installations and nuclear sites in PRC, should there be a conflict over Taiwan, that would present an entirely new strategic arrangement for the PLA, he said.
“The PLA air force is now scratching its collective head asking, ‘What on Earth would a couple of B-2s strikes do in China?’ A B-2 strike on China would escalate in a nanosecond,” Mr. Tkacik said.
About the Author:
Reuben F. Johnson is a survivor of the February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and is an Expert on Foreign Military Affairs and Director of the Asian Research Centre with the Fundacja im. Kazimierza Pułaskiego in Warsaw. He has been a consultant to the Pentagon, several NATO governments and the Australian government in the fields of defense technology and weapon systems design. Over the past 30 years he has resided in and reported from Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Brazil, the People’s Republic of China and Australia.
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