Russia Has Started Losing the War in Ukraine

More than three years after Vladimir Putin launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the myth of Russian invincibility is showing signs of collapse.

The Russian president, long adept at shaping optics to avoid the appearance of defeat, is now facing a conflict he cannot simply narrate away. Ukraine is proving to be his most consequential and costly mistake.

Putin Has Problems Beneath the Surface

As noted by Foreign Policy magazine, May’s Victory Day parade in Moscow was meant to project strength, with Putin standing beside Chinese President Xi Jinping as troops marched across Red Square. But beneath the pageantry lies a hollow reality: Russia is bogged down in a war it cannot win, bleeding manpower, money, and morale.

Far from being isolated, Putin insists Russia is thriving. State media blames NATO expansion, American weakness, and Ukrainian stubbornness for the conflict.

Yet none of that can conceal the growing strategic dead-end.

Putin Trapped in Ukraine

Although the Kremlin has claimed some nominal territorial gains, Russian forces are yet to cement any major breakthroughs. In particular, the battle for Pokrovsk has typified the slow-moving war of attrition this conflict has snowballed into, taking tens of thousands of lives in the process.

Western estimates suggest Russian casualties are nearing one million. With Ukrainian drone strikes multiplying and morale on the home front waning, Putin is locked in a war of attrition with no clear exit.

Ukraine Won’t Be Broken

Ukraine, for its part, has refused to break. Despite being outmanned and outgunned, it continues to innovate on the battlefield. The shift from conventional warfare to strategic, asymmetric tactics—particularly in drone and cyber warfare—has kept Russia from consolidating its hold on occupied territories. And while Ukraine’s economy suffers, its people remain fiercely defiant.

This resilience is not born of political calculation, but of survival instinct, reinforced by the brutality of Russian occupation.

Diplomatically, the Kremlin’s options are narrowing. Russia has failed to drive a wedge between Washington and Europe. On the contrary, the U.S. and newly assertive Germany, under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, have hardened their stance.

Moscow’s hopes of exploiting divisions in the West have largely evaporated, not least because of its well-documented indiscriminate bombing campaigns and scorched-earth tactics. Some reports even suggest that Putin’s generals are lying to him about the situation on the ground.

Watch the Russian Economy

Economic stagnation may also be a worry for the West, but Russia’s situation is also deteriorating.

Its early wartime boom has fizzled. Growth has flatlined, inflation has surged, and energy revenues are under pressure from global trends beyond Moscow’s control.

Many in Russia and beyond see Putin as offering no credible postwar vision, and who can blame them?

About the Author:

Georgia Gilholy is a journalist based in the United Kingdom who has been published in Newsweek, The Times of Israel, and the Spectator. Gilholy writes about international politics, culture, and education.