Key Points – NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte declared on June 9th that Ukraine’s path to joining the alliance is “irreversible,” a statement that effectively undermines any near-term prospect for a negotiated peace with Russia.
-Speaking ahead of the upcoming NATO summit in The Hague, Rutte’s reaffirmation of the open door policy directly contradicts one of Moscow’s core and non-negotiable demands for ending the war: a legally binding halt to NATO’s eastward expansion.
-This hardline stance from the alliance, despite uncertainty over US commitment under President Trump, suggests that peace talks are likely at a dead end.
Ukraine NATO Membership “Irreversible,” Rutte Says
Ahead of the NATO summit in The Hague that begins on June 24, Secretary General Mark Rutte has reaffirmed that Ukraine’s future within NATO remains certain.
Rutte said that Ukraine’s path to joining the bloc will remain unchanged, even if the upcoming summit omits any direct reference to it.
“The irreversible path of Ukraine into NATO is there, and it is my assumption that it is still there after the summit,” Rutte said, speaking at Chatham House in London on June 9.
“Whether it is again in the communique or not, I think that’s not relevant, because all the language we previously agreed is on there – until we decide it is no longer there,” he added.
Ukraine and NATO: Can It Happen?
The comments come amid reports that this year’s final communique may exclude mentions of both Russia and Ukraine, instead focusing on broader alliance priorities, after more than three years of fighting.
Ukraine first applied to join NATO in September 2022 following Russia’s invasion of the country, however the process is not expected to be complete until after the war comes to an end. Despite repeated affirmations that Kyiv will be formally asked to join the alliance, no formal invitation has yet been extended.
The context is further complicated by U.S. President Donald Trump, who has yet to decide whether he intends to continue providing military aid to Ukraine in the event that Russia does not return to the negotiating table. Trump, who will attend the summit, has blamed NATO’s expansion, along with Ukraine’s aspirations, for provoking the war. Trump has also signaled plans to withdraw U.S. forces from Europe and is hesitant to approve additional military aid.
Ukraine At NATO Summit
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed on June 2 that Ukraine received an invitation to the summit, dispelling earlier speculation fueled by alleged Trump administration objections.
While not officially a member, Ukraine has been represented at these summits by President Zelenskyy every year since the invasion began.
This year’s summit is expected to focus on burden-sharing and alliance readiness.
Negotiations Are Over, Then
If Ukraine’s NATO membership trajectory is indeed “irreversible,” it could mean that talks between Moscow and Kyiv are finished.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has long opposed NATO membership for Ukraine, and not just NATO’s slow creep eastward.
Throughout the conflict, Russia has demanded a legally binding commitment from the West not to admit Ukraine into the bloc, or indeed any further countries on Russia’s border, to NATO. Reports from May 28 indicate that Putin insists on these written guarantees, halting NATO expansion eastward before considering any peace settlement.
If the West is unwilling to adhere to Putin’s red line, and if Ukraine continues to be successful in disrupting Russian supply lines through covert drone operations, it’s hard to see negotiations going further at this stage.
More recently, at the June 2 Istanbul peace talks, Russian negotiators presented a detailed memorandum outlining a range of maximalist demands.
The proposed ceasefire terms included Ukraine relinquishing its claims to occupied regions, declaring formal neutrality, and renouncing any NATO ambitions.
Ukrainian officials were quick to dismiss the conditions as tantamount to surrender, with the two sides only agreeing to a prisoner exchange and the handover of around 12,000 bodies.
With that in mind, and given Rutte’s suggestion that Ukraine’s path to NATO is confirmed, any hope of a negotiated deal appears to be dead.
About the Author:
Jack Buckby is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society. His latest book is The Truth Teller: RFK Jr. and the Case for a Post-Partisan Presidency.
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