Ukraine War: Trump’s Wariness Can Only Get Russia So Far – Is President Donald Trump’s heavy-handed approach to a ceasefire deal in Ukraine weakening U.S. credibility without yielding results?
In under six months, the President has publicly castigated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, floated deals to extract Kyiv’s mineral wealth, and echoed Vladimir Putin’s framing of the war.
Despite these challenges, Ukraine’s frontlines continue to hold steady.
Trump’s Ukraine Strategy Fail?
Russia has failed to build on the momentum it briefly held back in fall 2024. Carnegie Endowment military analyst Michael Kofman recently told New York Magazine that Russian forces were making territorial gains until late autumn, but exhaustion, winter conditions, and Ukrainian tactical adaptation essentially halted those advances in their tracks.
Ukraine’s “Drone Superpower” Status
In recent months Ukraine’s game plan has changed. It is increasingly becoming a “drone superpower” to compensate for manpower issues over its stretched front, with remote drone attacks and minefields now bearing the bulk of responsibility for Russian casualties.
“It’s cost-effective, and it plays to Ukraine’s comparative advantage,” Kofman detailed. But can this state of affairs continue if Washington pulls the funding?
When Trump temporarily suspended U.S. arms transfers earlier this year, the move sent shockwaves through Kyiv. Ukraine’s war effort is currently heavily reliant on U.S.-supplied Patriot missiles and HIMARS-launched precision munitions.
Europe has increased artillery production, with Ukraine now manufacturing much of its own tactical equipment, Still, Kofman warns that US air defense and long-range strike capabilities are vital.
Trump’s “Unrealistic” Ceasefire Hopes
Meanwhile, Trump’s vision of a cease-fire appears increasingly unmoored from the reality on the ground. Ahead of last November’s election he vowed to end the war within his first 100 days, but Moscow has shown little willingness to play by his rules. Kofman warns that Putin is playing for time in a bid to normalize relations with the West while extracting concessions, without actually ending the conflict.
Russia seems to want a rollback of sanctions enforcement and a return to the diplomatic status quo, but this could be more than what the U.S. or Europe are willing to offer. European powers remain unhappy with the approach of both Washington and Moscow. For them, any lifting of sanctions or redefinition of Russia’s role in European security would be a bridge too far.
Back in Ukraine public support for the war is complex. There is an air of fatigue, but little willingness to buckle to external demands. Zelenskyy’s defiant stance in the Oval Office — where he was reportedly humiliated by Trump and Sen. J.D. Vance — sparked a flurry of patriotic outrage.
Ukraine is a flawed democracy, but its reliance on this political system means any deal agreed by its government must pass public scrutiny if it wishes to maintain credibility. But whether any deal whatsoever is set to materialise remains to be seen.
About the Author:
Georgia Gilholy is a journalist based in the United Kingdom who has been published in Newsweek, The Times of Israel, and the Spectator. Gilholy writes about international politics, culture, and education.
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