Key Points – Russia has tripled the production of its most advanced operational tank, the T-90M “Proryv,” with output from the Uralvagonzavod plant potentially exceeding 200 units in 2024.
-Despite this surge, which includes newly built hulls, analysts from the Institute for the Study of War note that the T-90M’s deployment on the Ukrainian battlefield is paradoxically declining.
-This suggests a strategic shift where Russia may be conserving its best armor for future contingencies, possibly against NATO, while relying on older models for the current attritional warfare.
The Math Problem – Even with increased production, Russia’s overall tank losses in Ukraine remain staggering and unsustainable.
Russia’s T-90M Tank Might Be Circling the Drain
The latest iteration of the T-90 tank, the “M” model, is being produced in record numbers, but Russia is losing tanks faster than they can be manufactured.
The T-90M tanks, however, are seen less and less on the battlefield, which lends itself to the question, “What is Russia’s overall long-term strategy?
The T-90M “Proryv” represents the most modernized iteration of the T-90 series, offering substantial upgrades over its predecessors.
Designed for high-intensity engagements, it features a newly designed turret with multilayer armor, Relikt explosive reactive armor (ERA), anti-drone screens, and a diesel engine generating 1,130 horsepower.
The tank retains the advanced Sosna-U gunner sight despite sanctions-imposed limitations affecting other Russian models. The T-90M also integrates a digital fire control system and enhanced situational awareness tools, positioning it as Russia’s most capable armored platform currently in serial production.
Production Numbers Have Risen Dramatically
A new report from the Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT), a group of open-source investigators, states that the expansion occurs amid the near-exhaustion of Russia’s usable tank reserves and an ongoing effort to sustain long-term combat operations.
CIT estimates that in 2022, Uralvagonzavod—the state-owned plant in Nizhny Tagil—produced between 60 and 70 T-90M tanks. Estimates for 2023 production surged to 140–180 units, and in 2024, it may have exceeded 200 units, possibly as many as 300 tanks.
This increase includes both newly built and modernized tanks. The company reportedly expanded its operations to a 24-hour production cycle and issued tenders for new welding and machining stations. The company is pursuing further technical upgrades to support future growth.
“The availability of new armored hulls does not appear to be a limiting factor,” CIT said. “All T-90M tanks currently being produced are newly built.”
However, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted a dual trend: while tank production has surged, the frequency of tank deployment on the battlefield appears to be declining.
Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia has likely produced between 540 and 630 T-90M tanks. With more than 130 visually confirmed as destroyed, damaged, or captured, the number of operational T-90Ms is estimated at 410–500, approximately 15 percent of Russia’s total tank inventory.
How Does The T-90M Stack Up Against Western Tanks?
Compared to NATO main battle tanks like the Leopard 2A6 or the M1A2 Abrams, the T-90M offers less armor protection but compensates with agility, electronic countermeasures, and simplified maintenance.
Its cost-efficiency and production scalability are key advantages. Unlike the complex and expensive Armata platform, the T-90M is built on proven engineering, making it easier to scale under wartime pressures.
Historically, this mirrors the Soviet doctrine of the Cold War and World War II, which prioritized mass quantity (See the T-34) over individual unit supremacy, a principle revived under current geopolitical constraints.
Russia appears committed to sustaining its heavy armor capabilities well into the next decade. For NATO and Ukraine, this development raises critical questions about armored warfare readiness, deterrence postures, and the future of defense industrial competition.
However, are the Russians holding them back for a massive armored counterattack, or are they planning on using them elsewhere? The Baltic countries of Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia are targets of Putin’s. He has said he wants NATO out of those countries as a prelude to peace in Ukraine.
Production Can’t Keep Up With Battlefield Losses
CIT and other OSINT intelligence analysts estimate more than 3,000 Russian tanks have been lost since the invasion began in 2022, with around 1,100 lost in 2024 alone. Although losses remain high, the reduced deployment of tanks may allow Russia to maintain a stable armored force over the next several years, assuming current production rates are maintained.
“Limiting Russia’s military production must become a cornerstone of NATO’s deterrence strategy in Europe,” CIT added. “Targeted restrictions on equipment and enforcement of secondary sanctions remain essential to slowing the growth of Russia’s defense capacity.”
Interestingly, Russia seems intent on re-establishing an armored force of numerical superiority over the West when its armor is taking a beating in Ukraine. Tanks in Ukraine on both sides are taking heavy losses due to improved drone usage and anti-tank missiles.
As we are aware, Western tank production is consistently behind schedule and over budget. Russia is determined to keep the factories running 24/7. But will it make any difference in the war today?
About the Author:
Steve Balestrieri is a National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing on defense, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications.
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