Key Points and Summary – New reports from the Atlantic Council and Carnegie Endowment paint a grim picture of Russia’s “disastrous demographics,” a long-term crisis being severely worsened by the war in Ukraine.
-The country faces a steep population decline, with UN scenarios projecting it could shrink from 146 million today to as low as 74 million by 2100.
-The population will also become older, less educated, and ethnically less Russian.
-The analysis highlights the irrationality of President Putin’s policies—simultaneously trying to boost the birth rate while fighting a major war that is decimating the nation’s young men.
Why Russian Demographics Are So Bad
Fighting a long war, in which large numbers of young men lose their lives on the front lines — over one million casualties, by one count — is never good for a country’s demographics and can lead to such a country suffering a demographic death spiral.
According to a recent report, that’s just the start of Russia’s troubles.
Last month, The Atlantic Council and the Eurasia Center published a report with the headline “A Russia without Russians? Putin’s disastrous demographics.”
A Bad Future
“Russia’s future will be characterized by a smaller population,” the abstract of the report begins. And it notes that Russian President Vladimir Putin has acknowledged the problem himself, and called for raising the country’s fertility rate- something with some echoes closer to home.
“Russia’s population will be not only smaller, but also older, more fragile, and less well-educated. It will almost certainly be ethnically less Russian and more religiously diverse,” the report says. “While some might view diversity as a strength, many Russians do not see it this way. In a world with hordes of people on the move to escape war, persecution, poverty, and the increasing impact of climate change, xenophobic political rhetoric sells well.”
Putin has spent money and effort to try to solve this demographic crisis, for much of his time as president, with limited success. Others have been warning him of the crisis as well.
“The demographic consequences from the Russian war against Ukraine, like those from World War II and the health, birth rate and life expectancy impact from Russia’s protracted transition in the 1990s, will echo for generations. Russia’s population will decline for the rest of the twenty-first century, and ethnic Russians will be a smaller proportion of that population. The ethnic and religious groups that embrace the “traditional family values” Putin favors are predominantly non-Russian.”
The Atlantic Council also cited “United Nations scenarios,” which project the nation’s population will shrink from 146 million today to between 74 million and 112 million in the year 2100.
“While Russia is hardly unique in facing declining birth rates and an aging population, high adult mortality, and infertility among both men and women, increasingly limited immigration and continuing brain drain make Russia’s situation particularly challenging. Population size is determined by a combination of natural factors—birth rates and life expectancy, along with the emigration-immigration balance. Putin’s war on Ukraine has undermined all the potential sources of population growth.”
That’s not the only recent report about bad demographic news for Russia.
“Doomed to Fail”
The Carnegie Endowment’s Carnegie Politika wrote back in March about why “Putin’s Irrational Demographic Policies Are Doomed to Fail.”
“Russia’s fertility rate is one of President Vladimir Putin’s obsessions because he sees boosting the population as a way to help restore Russia’s greatness. Putin regularly talks about the sort of demographic trends he would like to see, and sets targets for officials, who inevitably try to solve the problem with financial incentives and new bans,” Andrey Pertsev wrote for Carnegie.
But there are limits to that sort of thinking.
“In Putin’s mind, boosting the fertility rate is closely linked with his other obsession of regaining territory once controlled by the Soviet Union and the Russian Empire. Indeed, these two issues are the twin pillars of the whole Putin project, which sees itself as healing Russia’s historical trauma,” the analysis says. “The references to Mendeleev are sufficient proof, however, that Putin’s demographic dreams are just that—dreams. Nevertheless, bureaucrats and members of the Russian elite have to be seen to be trying to make his dreams become reality.”
Ultimately, it’s a sign of weakness in Russia today.
“The president’s demographic plans are a perfect example of the destructive contradictions of late Putinism. While Putin wants to go down in history as a ruler who dealt with the traumatic consequences of the twentieth century, trying to achieve a higher birth rate at the same time as fighting a major war is clearly irrational,” he writes.
About the Author: Stephen Silver
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist, and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review, and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, national security, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
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