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Russia Is Facing a Demographics Crisis

Putin with a Rifle.
Putin with a Rifle. Image Credit: Russian State Media.

Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine will make it harder for Russia to recover demographically:  Already facing the problem that Russian women do not have significant numbers of babies, the tens of thousands of deaths of young men in Ukraine will not help the struggling demographic situation in Russia. Meanwhile, Russia’s senior citizens are aging even more. There are not enough young people to support those in old age financially.

In a nutshell, Russia’s people crisis will not be easy to fix—and in fact, it might be impossible to fix.

Can Immigrants Alone Reverse Population Decline?

Many Russians are already xenophobic and resentful of immigrants who come to the Motherland from former Soviet Republics and countries that were once behind the Iron Curtain. Immigration from the “Near Abroad” is the only way Russian population has grown in recent years and even those migrant numbers are not increasing enough to stabilize the demographic challenges.

Drastically Less Populate Country by 2100

There are currently 146 million people in Russia. Projections by the United Nations reckon that Russia will only have between 74 million and 112 million citizens by 2100. That’s a downward change of about 25 to 50 percent.

What Has Caused This?

Population decline is also due to people leaving Russia. Low birthrates have led to diminished numbers. Russian men who are dying in Ukraine are also unhealthy to begin with. Males in Russia have a higher incidence of tobacco and alcohol abuse. Twenty-five percent of males die before the age of 55. So, life expectancy is down. There are fewer men for women to mate with and some females are infertile too. There are also high rates of abortion that is often used for birth control. When women do have kids, they often decide to have only one child. Like many countries, Russia also lost citizens during the Covid-10 pandemic.

Putin Knows Demographics Is a Serious Problem

The war has undermined many public policy initiatives that Putin enacted to spur population growth. He has been aware of the problem since at least 2006. In his presidential address that year, Putin cited demography as “the most serious problem in Russia today.” Putin began to order that ethnic Russians living in neighboring countries, the Near Abroad, be given Russian passports to add new citizens to the census rolls. He also tried to attract more ethnic Russians to move back to the homeland.

But actually, the small population growth from these efforts has only come from migrant workers who send remittance payments home and who also return to original countries when they can’t find jobs or afford the higher cost of living in Russian cities. The rate of immigration has declined since the Cold War ended and resulted in only 70,000 immigrants in 2004.

The State of Immigration

Part of this decline was due to a harsh immigration law in 2002 that placed quotas on migrants due to their different race and religion. Putin decided to change these requirements to increase migrants, but Russian demographers found that almost all immigration was from Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. These people had difficulty assimilating and were moving mostly to Moscow where they could join immigrant communities. This spawned an anti-immigrant movement called “Russia for the Russians.”

Attempts to Spur the Birthrate

Putin also executed a program that incentivized ethnic Russian women to have more kids by giving them payments when they birthed more than one child. This money could be spent on daycare, housing, or education. The policy worked for families in rural towns and villages but had little positive effect in high-priced Moscow and other cities.

But the Russians had some success with policies that encouraged more childbirths. The birth rate went up from 1.3 in 2007 to nearly 1.8 in 2015. However, since Russia is still in a demographic hole, the women who had these babies were aged from 20 to 30. Older Russian women are resisting the incentives and choosing not to have children.

Lost Generation of Men Due to Ukraine War

Now there will be fewer mates for Russian women as more than 600,000 Russian men have been wounded or killed in Ukraine. This lost generation will have negative affects on population growth in the future as women age without having children. There are also many men who have left the country to avoid fighting in Ukraine.

Just Invade Countries to Add Ethnic Russians to the Population

Russia will continue to have demographic problems, and Putin realizes that one of the only ways to create population growth is to grab territory by force where ethnic Russians live. The Donbas region in Ukraine has ethnic Russians who speak the language. Same for Crimea that was annexed in 2014.

The Baltics Are Scared of Invasion

That is why the Baltic countries that have ethnic Russians are so afraid of a Putin-ordered invasion or more “passportization” efforts for pro-Russian populations in Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania. This may be Putin’s last grasp at increasing the population.

Demographics Could Keep Russia from Becoming a Great Power

Russia cannot continue to be a great power with a declining population. His countrymen are sick, aging, and dying and that does not count the young men who have lost their lives in Ukraine. This demographic problem may influence his military strategy as he sees ways to annex territory that has ethnic Russians.

In the coming decades, Russia will continue to struggle demographically and will have to depend on immigration and give more passports to ethnic Russians in the Near Abroad. Economic development will slow, and there will be fewer working-age males to procreate. By 2100, Russia will not have the population to be a military power and will have to depend on its nuclear weapons to lay claim to being a strong country. Let’s hope Putin is done with invading other countries to gain more Russian citizens.

About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.

Brent M. Eastwood
Written By

Dr. Brent M. Eastwood is the author of Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare. He is an Emerging Threats expert and former U.S. Army Infantry officer. You can follow him on Twitter @BMEastwood. He holds a Ph.D. in Political Science and Foreign Policy/ International Relations.

3 Comments

3 Comments

  1. Zhduny

    October 29, 2024 at 7:53 pm

    Don’t worry, because countries like germany and denmark are no better.

    Germany has registered overall weaker population growth when compared to russia after 1945.

    But What’s very important now is the statement by general dmytro marchenko of ukrainian army that the eastern front is collapsing.

    The front is rapidly collapsing because men are exbausted, morale low, suppiies dwindling, huge errors made on the front and russian determination.

    So What now.

    Will austin and brandon decide for ww3 now to save ukraine.

    Will USA and NATO barge into eastern ukraine and ignite wholesale slaughter.

    Will all of the actions signal the beginning of the end of the world as brandon begins to think all of mankind must now be ready to accompany him on his final journey.

    Down with brandon. Down with austin. And to hell with kyiv.

  2. pagar

    October 29, 2024 at 10:28 pm

    Ukraine and its backers are facing a dangerous crisis right now, today, October 29 2024.

    The crisis, or situation, is now extremely dire, with ukro forces reeling from Russian glide bombs and Russian attacks in Donbass and Kursk.

    In Kursk, Russian soldiers captured an American M1 Abrams tank virtually intact while others are advancing on ukro positions.

    In Donbass, Russians are entering soledove and hirynk and planning pincer move on pokrovsk.

    Pokrovsk is the linchpin of ukro defense in eastern Ukraine, and if it falls, finito’s finito for Ukraine.

    Theoretically, that would mean the collapse of the neo-nazists all the way to the Dnieper river.

    What then.

    Recall at end-feb 2024, DoD chief publicly l said that if Ukraine is defeated on the battlefield, the US will have to go in and fight Moscow.

    Now, are we seriously, dangerously looking at all-out war in Europe by Feb 2025. Or ww3 in Europe.

  3. Pingback: The Russian Economy Faces An Uncertain Future - NationalSecurityJournal

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