Key Points – Russia’s recent massive aerial assaults on Ukraine, like the June 9th barrage of nearly 500 drones and missiles, may have a strategic goal beyond hitting their targets.
-By forcing Ukraine to expend its scarce and expensive interceptor missiles for systems like the Patriot, Russia is waging a war of attrition against Kyiv’s air defense network.
-While Ukraine reports high interception rates, its limited stockpile of interceptors (fewer than 200 Patriots as of April) is rapidly dwindling.
-This Russian strategy aims to create a critical “period of vulnerability,” leaving Ukrainian cities and forces exposed to future, more devastating attacks.
Russian Aerial Assaults Don’t Actually Need to Hit Their Targets
In one of its largest retaliatory attacks yet, Russia unleashed nearly 500 aerial weapons, including roughly 479 drones and about 20 missiles, against Ukraine in a single overnight barrage on June 9, 2025. Ukraine’s Air Force reported that it shot down 460 of the drones and 19 of the missiles, using a mix of traditional missile intercepts and electronic warfare. Only a handful of devices penetrated Ukrainian defenses.
The majority of the firepower was reportedly directed at a key military airfield in western Ukraine, near the Polish border, according to spokesman Yurii Ihnat. Ground reports also indicate that while there was some localized damage at the airfield, there was no widespread destruction.
The June 9 strike is part of a series of intense overnight assaults conducted by Russia over the last week, in response to Ukraine’s successful Operation Spider’s Web attack against four of its airbases. Russia’s bombardment appears to be a calculated effort to degrade Ukraine’s air defense network at precisely the moment President Zelenskyy is urging Western allies, including the United States, to step up and provide “concrete signals” regarding the supply of new air defense systems.
While Ukraine continues to intercept the vast majority of incoming drones and missiles, that doesn’t mean the attacks are failing. In fact, Russia’s aerial assaults don’t need to hit their targets at all to do damage. Simply forcing Ukraine to expend precious interceptor missiles and stretch its defenses may be the point of the barrages.
Ukraine’s Air Defense Capacity
Ukraine’s air defense against persistent Russian aerial assaults uses a combination of missile interception technology and electronic warfare. Electronic jammers, which are deployed on drones and fixed sites, disrupt guidance systems of incoming threats. However, the backbone of its air defense systems are missile-based. At first, Ukraine relied heavily on Soviet-era legacy systems, but as years have passed, that air defense infrastructure has been bolstered by more modern Western platforms.
The U.S.-supplied MIM-104 Patriot system is one of Ukraine’s most important assets. As of April 2025, Ukraine operated seven fully functional Patriot batteries, with eight systems on hand. Six of those systems are actively deployed protecting strategic areas, including Kyiv and border regions. Those systems are backed by a stockpile of 200 Patriot-compatible interceptors. That number, however, has not been updated since Russia’s series of aerial assaults over the past week alone.
That stockpile has likely been taxed by the barrages, which saw hundreds of drones and missiles fired at major cities across the country. Though Ukraine has reported high interception rates, each engagement chips away at its dwindling missile reserves. Nobody other than Ukrainian forces knows exactly how many are left.
It’s not just missiles Ukraine is losing, either. Reports have described how Russian strikes have damaged as many as 40 launchers and 10 radar units, equivalent to around half of Ukraine’s total delivered inventory. As many as five launchers and radars were disabled in one 2023 strike alone.
Ukraine’s situation is dire. Kyiv hopes that ongoing negotiations will secure the supply of at least one new Patriot system from Greece or Germany before the NATO summit in late June 2025, while Israel is reportedly refurbishing systems from United States stockpiles to send to Kyiv. Meanwhile, the United Kingdom has announced a £1.6 billion deal for 5,000 lightweight air-defense missiles to expand medium-range coverage.
It means Russia, in just the next few weeks, may use this period of vulnerability to wreak havoc on Ukraine’s air defense systems. Aerial assaults in recent days may well have been particularly trying for Ukrainian forces, but what comes in the next two weeks could prove even more devastating. Even if Russia doesn’t hit its targets.
About the Author:
Jack Buckby is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society. His latest book is The Truth Teller: RFK Jr. and the Case for a Post-Partisan Presidency.
The Best Tanks on Earth
AbramsX: The Tank the US Army Wants
