Key Points – Russia’s war in Ukraine has become a “meat grinder,” with its military casualties expected to reach one million by the end of June 2025.
-While Russia has replenished its forces to be 15% larger than pre-invasion levels, drawing on a vast population and targeting poorer regions and prisons for recruitment, this strategy is ultimately unsustainable.
-The cost is immense: staggeringly high equipment losses and minimal territorial gains (e.g., 100 casualties per square kilometer captured Jan-April 2025).
-With 40% of its federal budget now dedicated to defense and national security, Russia’s attritional approach may not be viable indefinitely.
Collapse Time: Can Russia Sustain This Casualty Rate In Ukraine Indefinitely?
The war in Ukraine has dragged on for more than three years with no end in sight.
Russia, under President Putin, has refused to negotiate a ceasefire or any peace initiative.
To do so would be to admit that the Russian military has performed poorly, and regardless of continuing rosy proclamations about how well the “special military operation” is going, it has turned into a meat grinder.
At the current rate of casualties, Russia will suffer its 1,000,000th casualty by the end of June. They can insist on not calling it a war. Still, a million casualties sounds like one, mainly when they have not accomplished one of the strategic goals set out before the invasion in February 2022.
Putin’s refusal to participate in negotiations to end the war is part of his strategy. In refusing to agree to an unconditional ceasefire and skipping the latest peace talks in Turkey, Putin is playing for time, because he believes it is on his side.
But the question is, can Russia continue to sustain these heavy losses and continue the fighting indefinitely?
Russia’s Military Force Has Replenished More Than 100 Percent
Russia is replenishing its forces much faster than was thought possible. Although the quality of its troops has fallen, NATO Supreme Allied Commander in Europe Gen. Christopher Cavoli observed that “Russia is reconstituting that force far faster than our initial estimates suggested. The army is actually now larger by 15 percent than it was when it invaded Ukraine.”
Ukraine has suffered far fewer casualties, but still horrifying numbers, about 400,000. However, it is worth considering that Russia’s population is four times the size of Ukraine’s. Russia has approximately 18.9 million military-age males between 20 and 39 years of age, in contrast to Ukraine’s five million. In essence, Ukraine’s losses are higher in terms of the percentage of its population that has been lost.
However, the strain on Russia’s economy is telling, as War on the Rocks pointed out, Russia’s spending for the military in 2025, “40 percent of Russia’s federal expenditures would go to defense and national security — a share that would exceed Russia’s combined spending on education, health, and social and economic welfare. In contrast, to maintain its global force posture, defense spending in the United States has averaged 15 percent of the total U.S. government budget over the past decade.”
Equipment Losses Are Going To Reach Unsustainable Levels:
During the initial invasion, Russia’s armored vehicle losses outnumbered Ukraine’s by a 4:1 margin. It increased to 5:1 when Russia captured Avdiivka. It has gradually declined and has dropped to 2:1 in May of this year.
However, it is worth considering that Russia is trading vast amounts of personnel and armor for a few yards of terrain. CSIS reported that “Since January 2024, Russia has traded vast quantities of equipment for mere meters of ground—a strategy that decisively falls short of Moscow’s objective to greatly expand its control of Ukrainian territory.”
Russia has gained only 1,627 square kilometers in Ukraine and Russia’s Kursk Oblast between January and April 2025 at a reported cost of 160,600 casualties. That is about 100 casualties per kilometer. Russian forces occupy around 20 percent of Ukraine.
At the current monthly rate of advance in Ukraine, it would take Russian forces over 152 years to capture the remaining 80 percent of Ukraine, if Russia can sustain massive personnel losses indefinitely. Russian victory is thus hardly inevitable.
Putin Does Not Care About Casualties in the Ukraine War
Putin is unmoved by the number of casualties. CSIS also pointed out that, “Russia’s daily average of casualties has increased every year since 2022. However, many of the soldiers killed and wounded in Ukraine are from Russia’s Far North, Far East, and prisons—and are not the children of Moscow and St. Petersburg elites. Putin likely considers these types of soldiers more expendable and less likely to undermine his domestic political support base.”
Because Russia is run by Putin, the narrative of the war has been carefully orchestrated by the Kremlin to prop up Putin as an effective wartime leader, hide the weaknesses of the military, and continually portray the “special military operation” as proceeding according to plan.
They can sustain the casualties in the short term, but Putin is biding his time because he believes the West’s desire to support Ukraine will waver and break.
However, these losses and the mismanagement of this war will eventually erode public support for it.
About the Author:
Steve Balestrieri is a National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing on defense, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications.
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