‘Sinking Feeling’: The U.S. Navy’s Great Nuclear Submarine Shortage

Not Enough U.S. Navy Submarines? Yes. There must be a way to counteract the growth of the Chinese and Russian navies. China has the world’s largest maritime branch, and Russia has a great collection of nuclear-powered fast-attack and boomer subs that can fire nuclear missiles.

Naval war planners are looking to U.S. submarines to pick up the slack, but there are just not enough to completely deter Russia and China. Plus, American submarines are needed to patrol the waters in the Middle East and fire cruise missiles at insurgent and terrorist groups when required.

How Many Submarines Does the U.S. Have?

71 U.S. submarines are active in the U.S. Navy, but that number fluctuates. Fifty-three (that number can also go up or down) are fast attack boats, plus 14 boomers carrying nuclear missiles and four guided missile submarines.

There is a requirement to have many more fast-attack subs. The Navy is supposed to have 66. That’s a big problem because shipyards are not building them fast enough to reach that number.

The number of fast-attack subs has remained the same for about ten years. The fleet may not reach the number of 66 required until the 2050s. This is viewed by many on Capitol Hill as unacceptable, and some lawmakers are hopping mad.

Powerful Senate Members Are Raising Alarm Bells

The chairman of the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee, Roger Wicker, started banging the drum for more subs in 2023.

“Demands on our submarine maintenance capabilities have also stretched our military’s readiness. Nearly 40 percent of U.S. attack submarines cannot be deployed because of maintenance delays. For example, the USS Connecticut had an accident in the South China Sea in 2021 and likely won’t be operational until 2026. The U.S. submarine industrial base is producing an average of 1.2 Virginia-class attack submarines a year, short of the two our Navy needs. There are many reasons for this underperformance. For years, the U.S. government purchased only one submarine annually—hardly enough to maintain a strong industrial base,” in an article he wrote for the Wall Street Journal.

There Needs to Be More Nuclear Submarine Force Sailors

There has also been a shortage of crew members in the submarine force. This reflects the overall state of recruiting in the U.S. military. Sailors who pass through submarine training are an elite force requiring lengthy and complex preparation.

These sailors must be knowledgeable to pass the rigorous Nuclear Power School. During the Covid-19 pandemic, the Navy focused on retaining existing submarine officers and enlisted personnel. Now, the emphasis is on recruiting new people, but the Navy lost a few years during a stagnation period when the number of sailors for its submarines did not grow.

Maintenance Efforts Are Not Keeping Up with Demand

As Senator Wicker mentioned, maintenance is another problem. Many subs are simply inactive and must be repaired for various reasons. The Navy knows this and wants to get more boats into active service quicker, but this may not happen until 2027 or 2028.

Meanwhile, defense contractors are not equipped to get more subs back in the water. “General Dynamics’ Electric Boat and HII’s Newport News Shipbuilding, simply do not have enough capacity for all the needed submarine repairs,” according to Bryan Clark, director of the Hudson Institute think tank’s Center for Defense Concepts and Technology.

Shortage of Skilled Workers

Part of this also results from lacking skilled maintenance workers and submarine builders. Qualified workers are difficult to recruit, which was true before the pandemic.

Some American subs are ready to “surge” when needed, while others are fully operational.

This makes a difference when one examines all the potential naval combat flashpoints worldwide.

China is making more territorial claims in the East and South China Seas. It also has designs in Taiwan. North Korea has a growing submarine force. Russia’s swift, silent, and deadly boats patrol several operational theaters.

What Will Donald Trump Do on Attack Submarines?

It will take more U.S. submarines to counteract these types of threats.

Lawmakers like Wicker will encourage Donald Trump’s national security team to invest more funds into submarine warfare, but there are deeper problems than money. The U.S. industrial base is inefficient and quickly making new subs, while maintenance is still problematic. It seems like everyone can identify and describe the issues, but there are few solutions.

About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.