Ahead of the upcoming midterms, President Trump announced earlier this week that the U.S. would refrain from launching any new strikes against Iran until after the November elections.
After months of on-and-off fighting, the war has become a sensitive political issue for Trump and the Republican Party, as gas prices have remained high around the country.
Capt. Andrew “Dojo” Olson, F-35 Demonstration Team pilot and commander performs a high-speed pass during the Melbourne Air and Space Show March 29, 2019 in Melbourne, Fla. The air show featured the North American Debut of the all-new F-35 Demonstration. (U.S. Air Force Photo by Senior Airman Alexander Cook)
A U.S. Marine Corps plane captain assigned to the Marine Fighter Attach Squadron 225 (VMFA-225) signals to a pilot in a F35B Lightning II as it taxis on the flightline after landing in the U.S. Southern Command Area of Responsibility, Sept. 13, 2025. U.S. military forces are deployed to the Caribbean in support of the U.S. Southern Command mission, Department of War-directed operations, and the president’s priorities. (U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Katelynn Jackson)
In recent months, the Trump administration has tried a more hands-off approach to the war, hoping mounting economic pressure will force Tehran to capitulate.
However, in light of recent attacks on commercial tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, it appears that the Islamic Republic is not yet ready to concede defeat.
No Strikes Against Iran Until After Midterms
On October 8, Trump took to social media and explained that the U.S. will not launch any more attacks against Iran until after the midterms.
“We are having productive discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran,” Trump wrote. “I want to make it clear to everybody that, while Iran is in very bad condition, both economically and militarily… we will not be attacking Iran at any time before the Midterm Elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd.” Earlier this week, reports emerged suggesting the U.S. may launch additional strikes in the Middle East.
However, at least for now, the administration wants to hold out unless Iran launches a direct attack against U.S. military assets in the region.
Since March, the war has been a constant thorn in the administration’s side, and Trump wants it gone as soon as possible. During a campaign rally in Nebraska, the President assured voters that the war would end soon and that prices across the board would return to normal. “It’s going to end very soon, and your prices are going to come down. All your prices have been tumbling down,” he said during the rally. Despite the administration’s optimism, a sizable portion of the population still finds the war unpopular. Current polls suggest that roughly 57% of Americans oppose the war, while only 35% support it. The war has complicated this election cycle for many Republican candidates, as the GOP battles to retain control of the Senate and House of Representatives.
Waiting Out the Other Side
Both sides are currently playing the waiting game, hoping to outlast the other in a battle of wills.
Tehran recognizes the internal pressure Trump is feeling from the war and hopes the administration will suffer politically in November. “They thought they were going to outwait me; you know, ‘we’ll outwait him. He’s got midterms.’”
Trump said at a cabinet meeting in May. “I don’t care about the midterms.” By prolonging the war, Iran is playing with fire on the gamble that the U.S. will eventually lose the will to fight and withdraw.
Historically, this has proven to be the most reliable way to defeat the U.S., but prolonging the war is not exactly beneficial for Iran either.
The big question is whether Iran’s resilience will outlast Trump’s ability to bear the political fallout from the war.
While Americans struggle with the inconvenience of gas prices, the war has been a disaster for Iran’s economy.
The Iranian rial is in freefall, the economy is collapsing, and inflation is at an all-time high.
The country is currently being strangled by the U.S. Navy blockade, which has prevented Iran from exporting any of its oil—the country’s greatest source of income.
Iran’s situation is further strained by recent reports that traffic through Hormuz largely recovered in September. According to Kpler data, an average of 10 million barrels of oil traveled through the Strait each day, more than half of its pre-war average.
These reports suggested Iran was losing its stranglehold on the Strait, and with it, its most important leverage over the U.S.
Iran Isn’t Giving Up Yet: Hormuz as Pressure Cooker
However, news of Iran’s weakening hold over the Strait has been tempered by recent attacks from Iran against civilian tankers in the region.
Since September 30, the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) Center has reported 15 separate attacks against civilian tankers near Hormuz.
As a result, traffic through the waterway has slowed to a crawl.
On October 7, Reuters reported that traffic through the Strait fell to seven ships on Tuesday, its lowest level in two months.
The recent upticks in attacks and the ongoing conflict between Saudi Arabia and Yemen mean that oil prices have consistently remained above $100 per barrel.
With midterms rapidly approaching and Iran maintaining its will to fight, the war in Iran is threatening to drag out for much longer than Trump originally anticipated.
According to The Wall Street Journal, the U.S. has recently deployed the USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) and her carrier strike group to the Middle East, along with an additional Marine expeditionary unit.
Trump is therefore presented with two options: increase military activity against Iran and risk suffering more casualties, or play the long game and weather the increased gas prices. Both options carry their own risks.
About the Author: Isaac Seitz
Isaac Seitz, a Defense Columnist, graduated from Patrick Henry College’s Strategic Intelligence and National Security program. He has also studied Russian at Middlebury Language Schools and has worked as an intelligence Analyst in the private sector.
