China is forging ahead with its next-generation bomber, and the United States wants to keep up.
The stakes are high in East Asia and the Air Force is ready to pull the trigger on a large batch of newfangled B-21 Raider stealth bombers.
Many defense analysts, Air Force brass, and policymakers have estimated that the service branch would need at least 100 B-21s to dominate the skies in a future conflict with the Middle Kingdom.
Recently, a key Air Force general has beefed up the number of American bombers to 145. That could make the bomber program much more expensive.
B-21 Raider: What About the Affordability?
But can the Department of Defense afford this large shipment of B-21s?
Secretary Pete Hegseth has ordered the Pentagon to make $50 billion of cuts – an 8 percent reduction to the budget this year. He has extended the cost-cutting plan over the next five years. The B-21 has not appeared specifically on the Hegseth list of priorities.
But the secretary has included modernization of the nuclear weapons arsenal as one of his favored projects and the B-21 is a strategic airplane able to launch nuclear-tipped missiles.
Don’t Forget the High Cost of the NGAD 6th-Generation Fighter
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump is scheduled to announce the future of the Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter today.
This contract will be worth more than $20 billion and could result in hundreds of billions of dollars of NGAD orders into the 2030s.
It would be great to have both the NGAD and the B-21. They could fly in formation and punish the enemy in shock and awe attacks as both could launch hypersonic weapons and other modern munitions.
One General Is Ready for More Than 100 B-21s
General Anthony J. Cotton, chief of the U.S. Strategic Command, spoke at the McAleese and Associates annual Defense Programs Conference this week. Cotton is a fan of the B-21.
“I, as a customer, want to see increased rates of B-21 production,” Cotton said, explaining that the program’s lower production rate was set “when the geopolitical environment was a little bit different than what we face today.”
Cotton said the 100 B-21 number would be the absolute minimum and that 145 of the stealth bombers would be ideal.
He believes that the B-21 could be combined with the B-52 and give the Air Force 220 nuclear-capable bombers plus varying numbers of B-2 Spirits and B-1B Lancers. Many of those airplanes could be retired by the early 2030s when the B-21 is expected to come online.
The B-21 Program Has Forged Ahead by Meeting Production Goals
Northrop Grumman’s B-21 production has so far been a success story. The program is on-time and under budget and the B-21 has already embarked on test flights at Edwards Air Force Base.
Cotton may be undergoing a candid phase of speech making since he will be retiring soon and is not that afraid of saying anything controversial, but his estimate for 145 B-21s gives insight into what the Air Force leadership is thinking at this time. One hundred B-21s would still be an ample force to bring in 21st century strike capabilities and improve the efficacy the nuclear triad.
Nearly $700 Million an Airplane
The problem with the B-21 is its price. The bomber will set the Air Force back $692 million per unit in 2022 dollars. With the NGAD, this is going to require a huge investment by the Department of Defense. It probably means that production of the NGAD will be limited until budget priorities are determined by the Secretary of the Air Force and Congress.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune is from South Dakota where the first squadron of B-21s will be stationed at Ellsworth Air Force Base. Thune is a supporter of the B-21 and its deterrence role as the U.S. bomber force becomes older.
“I want to talk about one critical aspect of America’s defense capabilities in particular – long-range strike, specifically our bombers. Long-range strategic bombers have played a critical role for the United States in a number of conflicts. But today’s bomber force is desperately in need of an update. Our bomber inventory is roughly one-third of the size it was in and it’s the oldest in Air Force history. And experts warn that in a conflict, the current U.S. bomber force would be insufficient against an adversary like China,” Thune said in a speech on the Senate floor in 2023.
The B-21 has a crew of two. It is 54 feet long with a wingspan of 132 feet. The maximum takeoff weight with weapons is 180,000 pounds. Top speed is 652 miles per hour and its range is more than 7,400 miles.
The Raider could serve as a drone mothership and operate a flight of unmanned Collaborative Combat Aircraft. This would help the B-21 for better early warning, electronic warfare, fighting off enemy airplanes, and collecting reconnaissance data.
While General Cotton and Senator Thune are optimistic, 145 B-21s may be a bridge too far. I would like to see the B-21 tested and evaluated more before I reach the conclusion that more than 100 are needed.
Let’s wait and see how the NGAD progresses, too. This will be a difficult airplane to build, and it may not have the same success that the B-21 program has enjoyed so far. Having large numbers of the NGAD and B-21s could break the bank.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
