Key Points and Summary – A 100-aircraft B-21 Raider fleet is a dangerous minimum. Recent B-1B “boneyard” revivals highlight how thin America’s bomber force has become amid aging airframes and rising global demand.
-Attrition, depot time, and mid-life upgrades can quickly shrink an already small fleet—especially in a major conflict.
U.S. Air Force Airmen with the 912th Aircraft Maintenance Squadron prepare to recover the second B-21 Raider to arrive for test and evaluation at Edwards AFB, Calif., Sept. 11, 2025. The arrival of a second test aircraft provides maintainers valuable hands-on experience with tools, data and processes that will support future operational squadrons. (U.S Air Force photo by Kyle Brasier)
A B-21 Raider test aircraft lands at Edwards Air Force Base, Calif., during ongoing developmental flight testing, Sept. 11, 2025. The B-21 will be the backbone of the bomber fleet; it will incrementally replace the B-1 Lancer and B-2 Spirit bombers. (U.S Air Force photo by Todd Schannuth)
-Senior USAF voices and outside analysts now call for 145–200 B-21s to ensure capacity for nuclear deterrence, conventional strike, and surge operations.
-Under-procuring also raises per-unit costs and risks expensive production restarts later.
-With full B-21 strength years away, planning for a larger fleet now is the more credible—and affordable—path to sustained airpower.
100 B-21 Raider Bombers Is A Dangerous Gamble
The United States Air Force is already pulling B-1B bombers out of the “boneyard” to plug gaps in its bomber force.
Yet, there remains no consensus that more than 100 B-21 Raiders are necessary to ensure the long-term strength of America’s bomber force. It’s a warning sign that relying on a smaller fleet of Raiders than is feasible is dangerously optimistic.
In an era of intensifying competition from other great powers, a small stealth bomber force – even if it’s larger than the one we have today – risks overextension, surprise attrition, and strategic headaches that are all completely avoidable.
Many analysts now agree with U.S. Air Force officials themselves that 100 isn’t enough and that 145 would be a safer option, while others argue that 200 B-21 Raiders would be a far more sensible target. I, for one, agree with the latter.
A second B-21 Raider, the nation’s sixth-generation stealth bomber, joins flight testing at Edwards Air Force Base, Calif., Sept. 11, 2025. The program is a cornerstone of the Department of the Air Force’s nuclear modernization strategy, designed to deliver both conventional and nuclear payloads. (Courtesy photo)
A second B-21 Raider, the world’s sixth-generation stealth bomber, test aircraft arrives at Edwards Air Force Base, Calif., Sept. 11, 2025. The addition of the second test aircraft expands mission systems and weapons integration testing, advancing the program toward operational readiness. (Courtesy photo)
B-1 Sets Cautionary Precedent
When a B-1 engine exploded during routine maintenance in 2022, the Air Force judged repairs too expensive or time-consuming and instead brought a retired B-1, nicknamed Lancelot, back out of storage.
That aircraft, which was dormant for years, was transformed into an operational aircraft to maintain congressionally-mandated bomber fleet numbers.
More recently, a second B-1, “Rage,” was also restored and brought back into operational service from the Davis-Monthan “boneyard” to replace a damaged aircraft.
The news reveals the delicate balancing act the U.S. Air Force has been forced to ply in recent years, maintaining fleet numbers by leaning on a diminishing number of tired, aging, and damaged airframes kept in storage.
B-1B Lancer Bomber in Museum in Dayton, Ohio. Image Credit: Harry J. Kazianis/National Security Journal.
And if the modern force is so constrained today that we must rely on resurrecting retired airframes, it suggests that earlier planning ultimately failed; the U.S. Air Force is not as prepared now as it needs to be, and the B-21 Raider won’t be operational in significant numbers for some time.
Analysts suggest that full combat readiness of an initial force could come around 2029, but the full force of bombers expected to be built won’t be complete until at least the mid-2030s.
A revival of the B-1 is interesting, but it is not really good news; it is a result of inadequate planning.
Resurrecting these aging airframes is costly, time-consuming, and inefficient.
The next bomber force not only needs to be simple to maintain – at least, as simple as possible – but also needs to be backed up by the numbers required of an advanced Air Force that faces a growing number of global challenges.
More B-21 Raiders should, in theory, mean the Air Force won’t be forced to resurrect aging airframes decades from now, while awaiting whatever bomber comes next.
B-1B Lancer at USAF Museum in July 2025. Image Credit: National Security Journal.
Attrition Risk
A fleet of 100 bombers doesn’t offer the kind of cushion the Air Force needs today. Aircraft always succumb to accidents, maintenance downtime, structural problems, and unexpected losses.
In a major conflict, even a handful of losses or aircraft in maintenance can completely disrupt a planned schedule, forcing aircraft to be relocated from bases all over the country.
Speaking in December 2024, Air Force Gen. Thomas Bussiere said that the demand signal for bombers is “greater than any time I’ve seen in my career, across the fabric of every geographic combatant command.” Those words should be taken seriously.
Bussiere also argued that the long-standing goal of building a 220-strong fleet of bombers should be looked at again. At present, the United States has 141 bombers in the inventory, including the B-1, B-2, and B-52.
Analysts are increasingly coming around to the idea that 100 bombers is woefully insufficient, arguing that the Air Force needs more aircraft than technically necessary because of attrition – on top of worsening global tensions.
Geopolitical issues demand elasticity because the B-21 – America’s next stealth bomber – must serve a conventional power projection role as well as nuclear, and provide rapid response support.
Maintenance, Modernization, and Costs
Once an aircraft platform has been designed, it never really status the same. All aircraft must undergo regular maintenance and upgrades, they will likely see retrofits of sensors and other hardware and some point, and the latest generation of bombers are designed to accommodate computer hardware and software upgrades as a feature.
If a fleet is minimal in size, however, these eventual maintenance and upgrades can significantly impact planned operations.
Under-procuring means the Air Force will face pressure when these upgrades become necessary midlife, making the temptation to delay or skip enhancements much stronger – and while a move like that would ensure the bomber fleet remains prepared, it could mean the U.S. falls behind its adversaries in the decades to come if the subsequent generation of bombers faces the kinds of delays we’re seeing across various next-generation projects today.
And then there’s the matter of cost. Smaller production runs increase the per-unit cost, and if a decision is made later to scale up to 200, the U.S. government could find itself paying a premium to restart construction.
The B-21 Raider Bomber Gamble
Aiming for just 100 B-21 Raiders, therefore, doesn’t make much strategic sense.
In fact, I’d argue it’s a huge gamble; between the resurrection of B-1s, the push for larger bomber fleets, an evolving threat environment, the likelihood of future delays, and maintenance downtime, it’s clear that a force of 200 B-21 Raiders should be a minimum consideration for U.S. military planners.
About the Author:
Jack Buckby is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York who writes frequently for National Security Journal. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society. His latest book is The Truth Teller: RFK Jr. and the Case for a Post-Partisan Presidency.
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