How Much will the Social Security COLA Go Up for 2026? – Last year, the Social Security Administration announced that the annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for recipients of the program was 2.5 percent. What happens in 2026?
The Big Social Security Question
That adjustment, announced each year, is pegged to inflation. In the extremely high-inflation year of 2022, it was 8.7 percent, followed by 3.2 percent in 2023 and 2.5 percent last year.
The COLA number for each year is typically announced in mid-October, following the announcement of CPI data for September, although the agency releases estimates throughout the year.
According to CNBC, the COLA for this year is seen at 2.7 to 2.8 percent, based on the most recent government inflation data released last week. This percentage would add about $54 to the average retirement benefit.
Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst often quoted in the media on the subject, told CNBC that 2.8 percent is her expected estimate, while advocacy group the Senior Citizens League puts the estimated number at 2.7 percent.
Seniors Are Worried
Per CNBC’s report, some retirees are worried that tariffs and their effects will cause their Social Security checks to not go as far as they typically have.
The report cited a Nationwide Financial survey, released in August, which found that “over half of those currently receiving Social Security have had to cut back on discretionary spending due to rising living costs outpacing benefits.” In addition, half of those surveyed are “terrified” about the potential impact of tariffs on their retirement income and savings.
In addition, the survey found that “more than two-thirds believe that tariffs will drive inflation a great deal / somewhat beyond what Social Security (SS) Cost-of-Living Adjustments (COLA) can cover.”
A Chaotic Year for Social Security
It’s been a very eventful and chaotic year so far for Social Security.
In August, President Donald Trump issued a proclamation celebrating the 90th anniversary of the program, promising a commitment to “always defending Social Security, rewarding the men and women who make our country prosperous, and taking care of our own workers, families, seniors and citizens first.”
But early on in the second Trump presidency, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) “stormed” the Social Security Administration, according to a report by ProPublica.
In February, the acting commissioner of Social Security, Michelle King, resigned her position, rather than grant DOGE access to private information.
Was There Fraud?
Leland Dudek, who briefly served at the time as acting commissioner of SSA, told ProPublica that DOGE was obsessed with the idea that massive fraud was taking place in the program. Then-DOGE head Elon Musk claimed to have discovered that 150-year-olds were still receiving benefits, but that turned out to be a misreading of the agency’s data.
In fact, then-White House aide Katie Miller reportedly told staffers to repeat that 40 percent of all phone calls placed to SSA were linked to fraudulent claims, even though the claim is almost certainly untrue.
“The number is 40 percent,” Miller told Dudek in a call in April, per the New York Times. “Do not contradict the president.”
Another former head of the SSA, Martin O’Malley, said earlier this year that DOGE’s cuts of about 7,000 staffers from the agency had hurt its ability to do its job.
“The last time the SSA had this few employees was 1967, when the agency served 480 beneficiaries for every staff member,” the Center for American Progress reported this summer. “In 2025, the agency would be attempting to serve 1,480 beneficiaries for every staff member.”
Meanwhile, a whistleblower came forward in August and claimed that more than 300 million Americans’ Social Security data was put at risk after DOGE officials “uploaded sensitive information to a cloud account not subject to oversight,” the AP reported.
About the Author: Stephen Silver
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist, and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review, and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, national security, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
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Jim
September 17, 2025 at 12:57 pm
This subject seems far afield, but it could be central to the 2026 mid-terms.
History suggests the out of power party picks up seats in the mid-term. With the majority in the House as narrow as it is, any gains by the Democrats will likely flip control of the House.
Retirees vote and how they feel would be affected by the COLA adjustment. Trump promised Social Security would not be touched, so if seniors feel the COLA is inadequate to meet the inflation they see in their daily lives… you get the picture.
No Republican majority in the House and Trump’s second two years gets much more difficult politically.
With all kinds of possibilities.
Given history, Democrats have an excellent chance to take the House, but at this point, there is a certain disorganization and lack of message beyond the “affordability” issue which is real for many millions of voters. Democrats have stolen a march on Republicans regarding this issue. Can Republicans catch up?
Depends on how Americans see Trump’s economy in the Spring and Summer of 2026.
All the bragging Trump does about his great economy:
Americans will have the chance to pass judgment on the Trump Economy in Fall ’26.
We’ll see how it goes.