The Damage Is Getting Worse: Trump’s Poll Numbers are Tanking

The polling news is all bad for Trump: Last week was comparatively quiet for economic news, following the massive volatility of the previous week, which included multiple shifts in tariff policy that sent markets jumping and falling.

But even a week later, the polling numbers are mostly bad for President Trump.

Trump Crashing in the Polls?

According to the RealClear Polling average, as of Monday morning, Trump has an average approval rating of 45.3 percent and a disapproval rating of 50.8 percent, for a negative spread of 5.5.

Even more alarmingly for the president, the last six polls included in the RCP average all have him underwater.

The Economist/YouGov average has him at -9, Atlas Intel has him at -8, Harvard-Harris at -1, Morning Consult at -8, Cygnal at -6 and Reuters/Ipsos at -7. The polls were taken and released throughout April, although RCP appears to give heavier weight to more recent ones.

You would have to go back to a TIPP poll, released at the end of March, to find a poll included in that average that’s positive for the president, and even that only had him at +1. And the five polls before that one were all negative. That doesn’t mean no polls at all in that time have been positive for Trump, but merely the ones included in the RCP average.

Bad Reviews on the Economy

The economy, it’s clear, is the president’s biggest liability. That’s according to the recent polls, including one not included in the RCP average.

The latest CNBC All-America Economic Survey, released over the weekend, found that Trump’s approval rating on the economy is now at the lowest of his presidential career, across both of his terms, “amid broad discontent over his handling of tariffs, inflation and government spending.”

While there was economic optimism in the early days of Trump’s second presidency, that has “disappeared,” per CNBC’s survey.

“Donald Trump was reelected specifically to improve the economy, and so far, people are not liking what they’re seeing,” Jay Campbell of Hart Associates, a Democratic pollster who appeared in the survey, told CNBC.

The CNBC survey showed Trump’s overall approval rating at 44 percent, compared to 51 percent disapproval, but the numbers are even worse on the economy specifically. Just 43 percent approve of the president’s performance on that issue, compared to 55 percent disapproval.

The survey also found that while Trump’s base remains with him, that isn’t the case anymore with the broader electorate.

And when it comes specifically to tariffs, most Americans aren’t on board. Respondents “disapprove of across-the-board tariffs” by a 49 to 35 margin. They also disapprove of his handling of inflation by a margin of 60 to 37.

Does It Matter?

Trump’s polling numbers aren’t great, and they’re likely to get worse should the economy plunge into a full-on recession.

But the big question is how much that matters. After all, Trump, for all of his musings on the matter, is not constitutionally eligible to run for another term.

In the Washington Post Monday, Perry Bacon, Jr., published a column arguing that “Polls Aren’t Going to Save Us From Trump.”

After sharing the latest bad polling numbers for the president, Bacon argued that

“Unfortunately for those of us opposed to Trump, these numbers matter close to zero percent.”

That’s because, he argues, bad polling seems unlikely to deter Trump in any way, at least until next year’s midterm elections, which remain quite a ways away. Instead, opponents of the president need to be thinking about how to resist him now, rather than hoping for better electoral results in future elections.

Bacon added that while Trump sometimes backed down from policies in his first term due to unpopularity, he seems less likely to do so now.

“Perhaps more than any administration in recent history, Trump and his team are deeply committed to enacting their full vision no matter what the public thinks,” Bacon says.

About the Author: Stephen Silver

Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter