Key Points – A recent Rasmussen Reports poll shows President Trump’s approval at 52% in early May, a notable jump from 47% in late April.
-However, this positive rating contrasts with the RealClearPolling average, which maintains Trump’s net approval around -4.3, and other significant polls like Economist/YouGov (-7) and Morning Consult (-6) that also indicate negative public sentiment, particularly concerning his economic management.
-This discrepancy suggests the Rasmussen uptick might reflect a temporary stabilization after April’s tariff-induced market volatility rather than a sustained improvement.
-Future economic performance and potential new controversies remain critical factors for Trump’s standing.
Trump on the Comeback Trail?
Newsweek reported this week about a new poll from Rasmussen Reports, which shows that President Trump now holds an approval rating of 52 percent and a disapproval rating of 46 percent. On April 28, the same poll had Trump’s approval rating at 47 percent, compared to a disapproval rating of 52 percent.
Does this mean that Trump has suddenly gotten a lot more popular, just in two weeks?
No, not really, although there are signs of gradual improvement in Trump’s standing from April to May.
Newsweek, in its story about the poll, quoted Florida Atlantic University adjunct professor Craig Agranoff as stating that “Recent polls showing a slight uptick aren’t entirely shocking; public sentiment often shifts with news cycles.”
This is true. And the complete picture shows that it’s not always wise to follow only one poll, as opposed to the averages of them.
Still Underwater
According to the RealClearPolling average, which averages several polls, including the Rasmussen one, Trump’s approval rating is 45.9 percent, while his disapproval rating is 50.2 percent.
It should also be made clear that most of the recent polls don’t look as good for the president as the numbers do for Rasmussen, traditionally known as a Republican-leaning pollster.
The most recent Economist/YouGov poll has Trump listed as 7 points underwater, while the Morning Consult poll this week has Trump down 6 points. Some other polls have the president tied, between approval and disapproval.
A Shifting Average
Trump, whose approval rating was positive from January until early March, saw his popularity drop throughout most of the spring, especially sinking like a stone throughout April. That month began with the “Liberation Day” announcement of tariffs, and was followed by several weeks of chaos, as Trump went back and forth with tariff announcements, most of which were followed by massive stock market volatility. There was also occasional other bad news during that period, including the after-effects of the Signalgate scandal.
Trump’s numbers have unquestionably gotten better in the last two weeks, although that appears driven less by things Trump has done than by things he hasn’t done- there’s been more stability with tariffs, less stock market volatility, and less uncertainty.
The question is, is this a lull in a series of events that hurt Trump’s popularity, or has he legitimately turned the corner? With Trump not even halfway through the first year of a four-year presidency, it’s way too early for any definitive answers to that question.
What Comes Next With the Polling
Obviously, if a recession takes place this year, that is going to hurt Trump’s standing and popularity. The tariff question, while someone assuaged in the last week with a trade deal with the United Kingdom and a more limited agreement with China, remains an open one, especially with the “90-day pause” on the “Liberation Day” tariffs set to run out in July, barring an extension.
Also, with Trump, there’s always some new controversy, and it can be hard to tell in advance which ones will have legs.
Will Trump’s receipt of a new Air Force One from Qatar, one that even some of his biggest supporters have denounced, emerge as a scandal that dents his popularity?
Then there’s the question of the “Big Beautiful Bill,” currently winding its way through Congress, although not without difficulty. Whatever form the bill takes, it will likely contain tax cults for the wealthy, likely at the expense of programs for the poor, and if Democrats can frame that in a way that looks bad for the president, it could also hurt Trump’s standing with voters.
And once again, knowing Trump, there’s a good chance that some new thing will come out of left field and become the dominant narrative of the political moment.
About the Author:
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter
