Key Points and Summary – The U.S. Air Force’s decision to prematurely halt F-22 Raptor production at just 186 aircraft was a “strategic blunder” that has created a dangerous “air superiority gap.”
-While the F-22 remains the world’s most dominant air-to-air fighter, the small fleet size, with only about 150 combat-ready jets, is a significant vulnerability in a potential conflict with near-peer adversaries like China and Russia.
U.S. Air Force Tech. Sgt. Reggie Fernandez, 199th Air Expeditionary Squadron F-22 Raptor crew chief, conducts a basic post-flight inspection at Royal Australian Air Force Base Tindal, Northern Territory, Australia, July 29, 2023. Maintaining and building trust with like-minded allies & partners is crucial to a free and open Indo-Pacific. (U.S. Air National Guard photo by Master Sgt. Mysti Bicoy)
-The high cost of maintaining and upgrading these few aircraft further strains resources, leaving the U.S. quantitatively outmatched in the skies until the next-generation F-47 fighter becomes operational.
With So Few F-22 Raptors, The USAF Suffers in a War With China/Russia
The US Air Force has an F-22 Raptor problem in the event of a future war with China or Russia (perhaps both). That is, there wouldn’t be enough F-22s to support an air war against either foe.
F-22 Raptor at the US Air Force Museum. Image taken by National Security Journal.
This is an ongoing debate that, despite its advanced capabilities as an air superiority fighter, the F-22 Raptor would suffer, concerning the size of the fleet and its potential impact in a future conflict.
There are arguments on both sides, with some analysts believing that the United States has enough Raptors to counter either Russian or Chinese aircraft in a shooting war, while others claim the US Air Force is woefully short.
The F-22 Raptor Is Still The Best Fighter On Earth
As great as the F-22 is as an air superiority fighter aircraft, sometimes it is easy to forget that the Raptor is 30 years old.
As an air dominance fighter, the F-22 was the first 5th-generation stealth fighter jet to fly. It combines advanced technology, such as stealth and sensor fusion, to produce superb situational awareness, and an airframe that is highly maneuverable and can supercruise, or fly at supersonic speeds without the use of afterburners.
(Sept. 16, 2023) – The U.S. Air Force F-22 Raptor Demonstration Team performs during the 2023 NAS Oceana Air Show. The NAS Oceana Air Show is a chance for the Navy to give back to the community, showcasing Naval aviation to visitors from across the country and around the world. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Megan Wollam)
The F-22’s stealth is so good that it has a radar cross-section estimated to be as much as 15 times smaller than the F-35 and roughly 100 times smaller than China’s J-20.
The F-22 is still the standard against which every other stealth fighter is measured. Even after 20 years of service, it is still the best stealth fighter. But the rest of the world is slowly catching up. And it’s time, as #1 will soon end and be replaced by the F-47 Next Generation Air Dominance Fighter.
What makes the F-22 great in a dogfight is the aircraft’s thrust vectoring capabilities. Its two engines have specially designed nozzles at their ends that can move on a vertical plane to vector the aircraft’s 70,000 pounds of thrust in one direction even if the aircraft is heading in another, thus allowing the F-22 to do some impressive acrobatics, as well as leverage a highly high angle of attack during a within-visual-range engagement.
What Are Concerns About the Small F-22 Fleet Size?
The F-22’s production was halted at 186 units, despite initial plans to build 750, due to the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War. That was a strategic blunder on the part of the US. It wasn’t looking forward and has cost them more money, leaving our fighter protection with insufficient numbers.
Only about 150 are designated as combat-coded, raising concerns about high per-unit and maintenance costs, as well as the inability to replace lost aircraft.
It is an expensive machine. Alex Hollings wrote last fall, “The F-22 upgrade budget is enough to purchase 132 new F-35As and still have enough left over for a very comfortable retirement. In terms of the 150 combat-coded F-22s in America’s stable, that shakes out to roughly $72.6 million in upgrades allocated to each individual Raptor.”
Critics argue that a small F-22 fleet could create an “air superiority gap” until the next generation of fighters becomes operational, particularly given the rise of potential adversaries like China and Russia.
A government report highlighted that the F-22 fleet consistently failed to meet mission capability and aircraft availability goals between 2011 and 2021, which had further limited the availability of F-22s in the event of a wartime scenario.
The report also warned against divesting older F-22s (Block 20) without proper planning for training and maintenance, which could negatively impact the readiness of the combat-capable fleet. The Block 20s are used as training aircraft.
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The F-22 Raptor is still the best dogfighting fifth-generation stealth fighter in the world. It remains the stealth fighter against which all others are measured, despite being an aircraft that has been flying for over 20 years.
However, the numbers game can’t be ignored. With Russia and, especially, China producing a large number of aircraft, the US is lacking in numbers. Yes, the Air Force, Navy, and Marines have a significant number of F-35s, but it is a multirole aircraft, not a dedicated fighter.
The F-47, for which the Air Force is unlocking production, will be produced in significant numbers before the need arises for a war with China or Russia.
About the Author:
Steve Balestrieri is a National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing on defense, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications.
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Robert Z
July 19, 2025 at 9:57 pm
The Air Force didn’t cancel the F22.
Obama has that distinction.
Sam Cole
July 20, 2025 at 10:23 am
Russia is not a Near-Peer. Russia has proven to be a paper tiger. Their lauded T-90 tanks, that they said were Abraham killers, were decimated by our outdated hand-me-down Bradley’s. So I very much doubt their SU program is any better. China is also known to just steal our outdated tech and make wish.com versions. Our only true near-peers are all our allies.
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