While the United States and Iran duke it out for control over the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s proxies in Yemen, the Houthis, have declared a naval blockade on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait against Saudi Arabia as tensions across the Middle East flare up. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is one of the most important oil shipping routes connecting the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean. Because of its geographical position, around 9.2 million barrels of oil pass through Bab el-Mandeb every day, making it one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints in the region, next to the Strait of Hormuz. Its closure would be a major disruption for the global economy and cause oil prices to jump up further than they already have.
The Houthis Have Entered the Conversation
Nimitz-class carrier USS George H.W. Bush (CVN 77) transits the Atlantic Ocean while offloading munitions via helicopter to the world’s largest aircraft carrier, USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78), June 27, 2025. Gerald R. Ford, a first-in- class nuclear aircraft carrier and deployed flagship of Carrier Strike Group Twelve, incorporates modern technology, innovative shipbuilding designs, and best practices from legacy aircraft carriers to increase the U.S. Navy’s capacity to underpin American security and economic prosperity, deter adversaries, and project power on a global scale through sustained operations at sea. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist Seaman Jarrod Bury)
(Dec. 7, 2024) LT Steven Holcomb, attached to the Gunslingers of Strike Fighter Squadron (VFA) 105, operates a F/A-18E Super Hornet on the flight deck during flight operations, Dec. 7, 2024. USS George H.W. Bush is in the basic phase of the Optimized Fleet Response Plan conducting flight deck certification.(U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist Seaman Jayden Brown)
On Monday, Reuters reported that the Houthis in Yemen have declared a naval blockade on Bab el-Mandeb against the backdrop of rising tensions with Saudi Arabia. The Iranian-aligned militants stated that they were imposing “a maritime embargo against the criminal Saudi enemy, based on the equation of ‘an eye for an eye’, effective immediately.” Tensions between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis have always been high, but the two managed to implement a tense ceasefire in 2022 following a multi-year-long conflict in Yemen. More recently, however, following a strike by the official government in Yemen against the Sanaa International Airport.
The Saudi-led coalition vowed to respond to any aggression by the Houthis against commercial shipping. “Such threats are a blatant violation of international law and fall under acts of maritime piracy,” the coalition said in a statement.
According to some sources, the Saudis have already begun implementing protective measures against the Houthis for ships transiting through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Some analysts are curious whether the Houthis will actually keep to their word and attack ships passing through the Strait.
“The question now is whether they will begin targeting vessels heading to Saudi ports. At this stage, there’s no clear answer,” said Mohammed Albashia, a Yemeni analyst and the founder of Basha Report in Washington. “Even if no ships are attacked, the announcement alone is likely to disrupt shipping and create uncertainty for Saudi ports. Whether the Houthis move from threats to direct action remains the critical issue.”
The Importance of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is an incredibly important maritime chokepoint for international oil shipments.
Traffic through the Strait accounts for around 7% of the global supply of oil, which may not sound like a lot at first, but given that Hormuz accounts for 10%, the closure of Bab el-Mandeb would have significant knock-on effects for Saudi Arabia in particular. According to Matt Smith, a commodity researcher at Kpler, Asian refiners receiving barrels from Saudi Arabia could experience delays of up to several months as tankers are redirected to sail around the Cape of Good Hope. “The impact is going to be massive in the first month,” he said. “The biggest impact is going to be on Saudi flows.” According to Kpler, Saudi Arabia ships an average of 4.5 million barrels of crude oil per day from its Red Sea port in Yanbu, 70% of which went to Asia.
If the Houthis manage to fully close the Strait, Smith worries that the implications for the global economy could be devastating. “If they really stop and severely hinder those barrels through the Red Sea, that is going to have an impact on oil prices as well as refined product prices,” he said. “It undermines the whole global economy. At some point, you could have a global recession.” According to some economists, oil prices could rise to as high as $115-$120 per barrel, with freight and insurance costs also rising to accommodate longer trips around the Cape of Good Hope. This, combined with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, could result in serious damage to the global economy as a whole.
Clearing Two Blockades at Once
The world has already experienced what the Houthis are capable of when they put their threats into action. Despite possessing no regular navy of their own, the Houthis possess a stock of anti-ship missiles and naval drones which are more than capable of damaging or disabling civilian tankers. In 2023, following the outbreak of the Gaza war, the Houthis began firing upon Israel-bound tankers in the Red Sea in solidarity.
Attacks on civilian tankers led the U.S. to intervene, resulting in Operation Prosperity Garden. Despite enduring harsh airstrikes from American aircraft, the Houthis continued to launch raids against civilian tankers. It was not until Operation Rough Rider in 2025 that the Houthis finally agreed to a ceasefire.
More than a year later, the Houthis are once again threatening to strike commercial shipping vessels in the Red Sea. As stated earlier, it is still unknown whether the militants have the will or even the material strength to follow through with their threats.
The U.S. is currently focusing its attention on Iran with the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72), the USS George H. W. Bush (CVN-77), and their respective carrier strike groups operating in the Arabian Sea.
Already, some alarm bells have been raised concerning the shortage of long-range strike munitions. With the Houthis threatening to enter the ring, there are serious concerns that the U.S. lacks the munitions necessary to deal with Iran and Yemen at the same time.
About the Author: Isaac Seitz
Isaac Seitz, a Defense Columnist, graduated from Patrick Henry College’s Strategic Intelligence and National Security program. He has also studied Russian at Middlebury Language Schools and has worked as an intelligence Analyst in the private sector.
