Key Points and Summary – China’s two-seat J-20S debuted prominently, highlighting a shift toward manned-unmanned teaming and airborne command roles.
-Beijing touts the back-seater as a “mission commander,” potentially controlling loyal-wingman drones.
J-20 Stealth Fighter. Image Credit: PLAAF.
-Beyond capability, capacity is the story: the Mitchell Institute estimates the PLAAF fields ~2,225 fighters, including ~320 fifth-gen, with J-20 output reportedly rising to ~120 per year—nearly triple USAF fifth-gen acquisitions.
-Assuming typical mission-capable rates, China could have ~799 fighters ready at any time.
-With the U.S. still fielding CCAs and uneven procurement, a high-attrition fight favors China’s industrial base. Unless production and readiness accelerate, Washington’s “Department of War” risks falling behind.
The J-20 Has Transformed China’s Air Force
China’s industrial production capacity outstrips that of the United States. That strategic imbalance could have disastrous consequences in a potential future conflict marked by combat-related aircraft attrition.
China’s J-20S has been in the headlines following its participation in a recent Chinese military parade marking the 80-year anniversary of the end of World War II. The fifth-generation stealth fighter differs from its predecessor, the J-20, in that its airframe is elongated, a design consideration that creates space in the aircraft for a second person.
The J-20S is notionally the world’s first two-seat fifth-generation fighter jet, and the elongated variant is anticipated to bring a boost in capabilities compared to its single-seat predecessor. Speaking to the state-owned Global Times, a Chinese military expert explained the significance of the aircraft’s second seat.
“Having one more pilot means having one more mission commander. In the era of the fifth-generation fighter jet, the addition of a pilot to the J-20S is like a number ten player in soccer, who could both score points on his own and command the members of the warplane formation in combat,” the expert said.
While second seats in aircraft have typically been reserved for weapon system officers (WSOs) who target and engage other aerial elements, ground targets, data links, or the aircraft’s weapon systems, the distinction between pilot and WSO has become blurred. Both individuals broadly are able to fulfill each other’s tasks and roles if needed.
“In the past, the function of the back seat of a two-seat fighter jet was used to train new pilots or for the second pilot to operate airborne weapons, allowing the front seat pilot to focus on flight missions. However, the addition of a second pilot to the J-20S may not have been for these tasks,” another military affairs commentator told the Global Times.
The two-engined J-20 stealth fighter, even in its initial base variant, is larger than the either fifth-generation U.S. aircraft, the F-22 Raptor and F-35 Lightning II. The heavy fighter’s large size gives it a great deal of internal volume for fuel and weapons. Combined with its anticipated high maneuverability and long-range, stand-off air-to-air munitions, the aircraft is anticipated to be a formidable fighter jet, even if it is not as sophisticated as its American counterparts.
China J-20 Mighty Dragon in 2021. Image Credit: Chinese Internet.
In the future, the second seat in the J-20S and other aircraft may find an application linked to today’s budding crop of loyal wingman unmanned drones. China is rapidly gaining experience in this area—not in combat, but experience nonetheless.
While the United States has made progress developing unarmed drones capable of reconnaissance and surveillance and aerial refueling, and it has substantial experience with armed drones such as the Reaper and Predator that operated during the war on terror, an armed, unmanned drone has yet to make its service debut with the U.S. Air Force, Navy, or Marine Corps. It is an area of warfare in which the United States appears to be lagging behind its Chinese peers.
“The J-20S is the world’s first two-seat fifth generation fighter jet. If it does have the ability to command loyal wingmen, I believe it can even be regarded as the world’s first 5.5-generation fighter jet, putting China in a leading position in the field of manned-unmanned cooperative operations in the air,” the Global Times adds. Analyses from other sources come to similar conclusions.
A recent report released by the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies presents the facts and figures relevant to China’s aircraft. Its conclusion is concerning.
In a section of the report titled Capacity, Capability, and Readiness, the authors describe Beijing’s growing fleet of aircraft.
“China has an estimated 2,225 fighters in its inventory, of which 1,311 are 4th-generation and 320 are 5th-generation aircraft,” the report states. “With a production rate reportedly increasing to 120 J-20s a year, the PLAAF’s acquisition of 5th-generation jets almost triples that of the USAF. There is little data available regarding readiness, but assuming 70 percent of their fleet is combat-coded and has the same 70 percent MC rate that was assumed for the allies is reasonable. That equates to the PLAAF having roughly 799 MC fighters available to employ at any given time.”
What Next for J-20 Stealth Fighter?
Setting aside ephemeral analyses of China’s J-20 fighter and its variants, perhaps the most relevant aspect of the program is, as the Mitchell Institute report lays out, the number of aircraft that China is building now and how many they would be able to build in the future.
Particularly relevant is the comparison of China’s numbers with those of the United States, though the production numbers of U.S. partners and allies also must be considered.
J-20 Fighter from China Mighty Dragon. Image Credit: Chinese Weibo.
Unless something drastic changes, in the event of a shooting war with China, the United States will be outproduced and potentially outgunned from the air. But with the United States increasingly mired in contradictory and seemingly counterproductive defense strategies, what the future holds for the newly-minted Department of War remains to be seen.
About the Author: Caleb Larson
Caleb Larson is an American multiformat journalist based in Berlin, Germany. His work covers the intersection of conflict and society, focusing on American foreign policy and European security. He has reported from Germany, Russia, and the United States. Most recently, he covered the war in Ukraine, reporting extensively on the war’s shifting battle lines from Donbas and writing on the war’s civilian and humanitarian toll. Previously, he worked as a Defense Reporter for POLITICO Europe. You can follow his latest work on X.
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