Key Points and Summary – While China is rapidly producing its J-20 “Mighty Dragon” stealth fighter, its supposed numerical advantage is not enough to guarantee dominance over the U.S. and its allies.
-The F-22 Raptor remains the superior dogfighter, and when combined with the roughly 300 F-35s operated by the U.S., Japan, South Korea, and Australia in the Indo-Pacific, the West maintains a qualitative and quantitative edge in the stealth arena.
-Chinese simulations even show a lone J-20 would lose to an F-22, only gaining an advantage when paired with “loyal wingman” drones—a capability the U.S. is also developing.
-Nonetheless, the J-20 is a real threat in the sky and is getting more powerful as new versions come online.
Are The J-20 Mighty Dragon’s Numbers Enough To Defeat US F-22/F-35s?
As we know, China is producing aircraft and naval ships at a prodigious rate.
They are producing enough J-20 Mighty Dragon stealth fighters that they may soon feel they can defeat the United States and seize control of Taiwan.
Currently, it is believed that China has between 270 and 300 J-20 stealth fighters in its inventory.
They reportedly produce about 120 J-20 aircraft per year. Their numbers are growing.
Is China’s numerical advantage enough to overtake and defeat the US in the Indo-Pacific with technologically inferior aircraft to the US F-22 and F-35?
Or does China have a significant numbers edge at all?
The J-20 Mighty Dragon
Designed and built by the Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group, the J-20 “Mighty Dragon” is a fifth-generation fighter that has the NATO designation of FAGIN.
The J-20 is not a small jet, with a wingspan of 44 feet, a length of 67 feet, and a maximum take-off weight (MTOW) of 81,660 pounds.
It is one of the biggest fighter jets in the world. For comparison, the F-35A has a 35-foot wingspan, is 51 feet long, and has an MTOW in the 70,000-pound class.
While early models of the J-20 utilized twin Russian AL-31FM2 engines, based on the engines that powered the Russian Sukhoi Su-27, later models switched to Chinese WS-10B powerplants as part of a broader transition of China’s fighter fleet to domestically produced engines.
The J-20 has also been seen testing a new and more powerful WS-15 engine. With WS-10 engines, the J-20 has a maximum speed of Mach 2.
The jet is capable of carrying a multitude of weapons systems, including the very long-range PL-15 missile, PL-21 long-range missile, and the LS-6 precision-guided bomb.
There is also a two-seat variant of the plane under development. Unveiled in November 2024, the J-20S is a long-range, multi-role, stealthy fighter jet that can also team up with unmanned drones and aircraft.
When this variant is ready, the question then remains, will it make the Mighty Dragon a game changer? But the J-20 is a worthy adversary.
The F-22 Is Still The Best Fighter, Until The F-47 Comes Online
While the US F-22 Raptor is a superior fifth-generation stealth fighter compared to the J-20, production of the latter has been halted at 186 aircraft. And those are split between the Atlantic and Pacific.
However, in computer simulations conducted by Chinese programmers, it was reported that the simulations also revealed a single J-20 equipped with eight medium-range air-to-air missiles had a less than 10 percent chance of defeating an F-22 equipped with six AIM-120C missiles, according to the simulations.
The same Chinese computer programmers posted that the J-20 would win engagements 95 percent of the time if the J-20s had two “loyal wingmen.” The US is also developing the same program.
The Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) program is a US Air Force initiative to develop a new type of uncrewed, jet-powered aircraft that will operate alongside and collaborate with crewed fighter jets.
These “loyal wingman” drones are envisioned to expand the fighter fleet, enhance capabilities, and potentially reduce costs by taking on various missions, including air-to-air combat, electronic warfare, and intelligence gathering.
What About The F-35?
When comparing the J-20 to the F-35, one must first acknowledge that the Mighty Dragon has a significant speed advantage, Mach 2 to the F-35’s Mach 1.6. It also has a 1,100-mile range.
However, the J-20 features forward canards, which enhance its radar visibility. The F-35 has a lower radar cross section, which translates to superior stealth. The J-20 does not have a cannon, which could mean that designers didn’t intend it as a dogfighter. The F-35 is lighter, which may give it an edge in aerial combat.
The numbers of the F-35 are about on par with the numbers of the J-20 in the Indo-Pacific. Besides the United States, the US has sold F-35s to Australia, Japan, South Korea, and potentially Singapore.
There are currently about 300 F-35s in the region. Our allies account for close to 200. The US has about 650 F-35s in total.
However, there are about 1,200 F-35s in service between the US and our allies throughout the world. So, does China really have such a significant numerical advantage? Not when it comes to stealth aircraft.
The F-22s are not available in the numbers the Air Force would want today, but with the F-47 NGAD ramping up production, this may change. The situation is not as dire as one would believe.
The US would have a tough fight if China decides to invade Taiwan, but the US can hold its own.
About the Author:
Steve Balestrieri is a National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing on defense, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications.
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