The Next Administration Must Keep an Eye on Nigeria

Nigeria is an African giant. Its population of 220 million people is more than that of the two largest African countries—Ethiopia and Egypt—combined. Although Nigeria is no longer among the world’s top ten oil producers, it is still a major OPEC member whose production impacts the global economy.

Nigeria is also on the front line of several security seams. To its north, it faces a persistent Boko Haram terrorist insurgency, while pirates ply its southern waters. Corruption saps its potential and contributes to disillusionment and instability.

In order to distract from their failings, successive Nigerian presidents have exploited Nigeria’s ethnic and sectarian divisions. The problem grew especially bad under President Muhammadu Buhari, president of the country, between 2015 and 2023. Buhari was no stranger to ethnic and religious discord. As a young military officer in the late 1960s, Buhari was at the vanguard of the forces that perpetrated genocide against the largely Igbo population in the self-declared Republic of Biafra. After a half-century, his disdain for the country’s Christian and animist Igbo did not diminish. He facilitated the transit of Fulani militiamen to raid and murder the region’s Christians and designated the peaceful representatives of the Biafrans to be terrorists.

Alas, he found a friend in Secretary of State Antony Blinken and the Biden administration who argued that the anti-Igbo, anti-Christian violence was the result of migration caused by global warming. This was patently false, however. Climate change does not charter buses to transport death squads. Nevertheless, even as Islamists kidnapped Christian girls, slaughtered Christian men and boys, and burned churches, Blinken removed Nigeria from the religious freedom watch list.

Biafrans, however, are not going to subordinate their faith to support State Department pandering, nor are the Igbo willing to pretend that they feel safe and secure in Nigeria. Between February and May 2024, the Biafra Republic Government in Exile held a referendum to allow Biafrans and their diaspora to declare if they wished to remain part of Nigeria or become an independent country. Thirty million voted, a greater number than those who cast ballots in Nigeria’s most recent presidential elections. Those who cast physical ballots on the Biafra referendum registered in advance and showed voting cards, while those who cast their vote electronically used Google forms to ensure they only voted once. The results are consistent with public opinion surveying.

Biafran leaders suggest they could declare independence as soon as this autumn. Biafrans, it seems, want self-determination. Even if they do not declare independence, however, the Nigerian government’s unwillingness to address ethnic persecution and anti-Christian discrimination cannot continue.

Blinken believed he could sweep persecution under the carpet in the name of diplomacy. He believed that if the State Department refrained from criticizing the Nigerian leadership’s bigotry, Washington and Abuja might enjoy smooth relations. It is impossible to paper over such persecution, however. By refusing to demand that Nigeria treat all its citizens equally and respect their cultural and religious freedom, Blinken and the State Department demonstrated that Biafrans could not work within the system.

Succession is never an easy solution. It often sparks great violence if not civil war. Absent American attention, that could quickly become Nigeria’s future.

A more astute U.S. policy, whether under President Harris or Trump, would acknowledge the reality of decades of Nigerian persecution toward Biafrans, recognize that trust no longer exists, and work toward greater autonomy if not an internationally supervised referendum to confirm the Biafra Republic Government in Exile poll results.

About the Author: Dr. Michael Rubin

Michael Rubin is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, where he specializes in Iran, Turkey, and the broader Middle East. A former Pentagon official, Dr. Rubin has lived in post-revolution Iran, Yemen, and both pre- and postwar Iraq. He also spent time with the Taliban before 9/11. For more than a decade, he taught classes at sea about the Horn of Africa and Middle East conflicts, culture, and terrorism, to deployed US Navy and Marine units.