Key Points and Summary – Despite record military spending, Russia’s military-industrial base is in a state of “regression” and failing to modernize, according to a new Chatham House report.
-Crippling Western sanctions and the intense demands of the war in Ukraine have exposed deep-seated weaknesses.
-As a result, Russia is now forced to rely on Soviet-era legacy systems and struggles to produce genuinely new, advanced technology.
-While its military is “good enough” to prolong the war in Ukraine, it is falling technologically further behind both the West and China, a degradation the report says the West should actively encourage.
‘A State of Regression’: Why Russia’s Military Is Stuck in the Soviet Era
Russia, in the first three-and-a-half years of its war in Ukraine, has spent massive amounts of money on its military, but what it hasn’t gotten for that money is what could be described as a “modern” military.
That’s the conclusion of a new report from Chatham House. It’s titled “Russia’s Struggle to Modernize Its Military Industry,” authored by Mathieu Boulègue, a Consulting Fellow for Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia Programme.
Russia has allocated 6 percent of its GDP to the military for 2025, which is likely a record in the post-Cold War era, according to the report. However, the country’s military sector has been hurt by continuing sanctions from the West, as well as by the Ukraine war.
“The weight of international sanctions and the demands of war have exposed and intensified existing shortcomings in Russia’s military-industrial base,” the report begins.
Business Insider backed that up, noting that state-owned aircraft carrier Aeroflot has been “stripping spare parts from working aircraft due to sanctions-induced supply shortages.” At the same time, Russian troops were shown using Soviet-era howitzers last fall.
“Russia is currently struggling to build genuinely new and technologically advanced systems. Instead, it is relying on Soviet-era legacy systems and research. It is also heavily dependent on third-party suppliers to replace essential Western-made components, with import substitutions and domestic production failing to meet requirements.”
And while the Kremlin is trying to create the impression that its military is strong, “our research shows that the current state of its military industry is one of regression,” the Chatham House report says.
Not Keeping Up
The conclusion of the report is not to say that Russia is in any danger in its current war with Ukraine. But “being ‘good enough’ to prolong a war against Ukraine is not the same as being able to keep up with Western (and Chinese) advances in military technology over the longer term,” Boulègue writes.
He also concludes that the West should make a point to “encourage the degradation” of Russia’s military industry.
Where the Trouble Lies
Per the Chatham House report, Russia’s troubles are manifold.
“Russia’s ability to produce military hardware has been severely impacted, and its ability to innovate and adopt modern military technology constrained as a result of these challenges, as well as pre-existing weaknesses,” the report said. Russia’s military complex, he writes, is “currently struggling to build genuinely new and technologically advanced systems. Instead, it is relying on Soviet-era legacy systems and research.”
In the next decade, “Russia will likely have to simplify and slow its military production, accept reduced quality of outputs and manage a form of ‘innovation stagnation’ in its research and development (R&D).”
In other words, China is pursuing and achieving modern military technology, while Russia is not.
What the West Can Do
Chatham House concludes that Western nations should see this trend and do all they can to encourage it.
“The West’s goal must ultimately be to encourage these developments, seeking to reduce the overall threat from Russia by limiting the modernization of the latter’s increasingly outmoded military industry,” Boulègue writes.
“In such a scenario, the Kremlin would be forced to review its intention to confront Western/NATO countries symmetrically in conventional and strategic competition. Such a policy would not prevent Moscow from waging low-intensity warfare entirely, but could render the Russian threat more manageable, as a restricted military industry and shortages of advanced weapons systems would leave Russia unable to compete militarily in the long term.”
Ultimately, per Chatham House, the problem is likely to persist in the near term.
“The Russian military-industrial and the military-scientific bases will likely remain ‘good enough’ for the time being. In the long term, the technological gaps with Western/NATO countries (and China) will widen. This situation will make it harder for Russia to sustain competition with its adversaries,” the author writes.
About the Author: Stephen Silver
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist, and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review, and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, national security, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
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